3508 Willow St · Anchorage, AK 99517

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 608 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1950 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Value is in the lot! Prime opportunity in the Spenard/Turnagain area on a level 7,000 SF R1-zoned lot with water, sewer & electric already on site. Remove the existing structure and build new, or explore rebuilding from what's there. Detached garage is leak-free, and rear access adds flexibility.

Key facts

• 7000 sf r1 zoned lot
• Rear access
• Detached garage

Tags

• 7000 SF R1 ZONED LOT
• WATER SEWER ELECTRIC ON SITE
• DETACHED GARAGE
• REAR ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to another unit; Built in 1950; Other foundation
• Construction: Composition / shingle / asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Landscaped; Storage; Located in city limits; Fire service area; Road service area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: BR/BA on main level; Primary bedroom with bath on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.0% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turnagain Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #55 of 156 statewide, top 37%, 308 students, 41% FRL); Romig Middle School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #22 of 36 statewide, top 63%, 720 students, 37% FRL); West High School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #39 of 61 statewide, top 65%, 1,763 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,176 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.55%
• DSCR: 3.65
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $84,010
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $208,004
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99517

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,601/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $1,596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $992

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,661	-5% $1,629	+0% $1,596	+5% $1,564	+10% $1,531
Rent	-10% $1,358	-5% $1,477	+0% $1,596	+5% $1,715	+10% $1,834
Rate	-1.0pp $1,654	-0.5pp $1,626	base $1,596	+0.5pp $1,567	+1.0pp $1,536

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,014
Total (2 units)			$3,013

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3606 Oregon Dr Unit 5 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	650	$1,425	$2.19	16d	1	0.22mi
3907 Carolina Dr Unit 2 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	600	$1,375	$2.29	16d	1	0.22mi
3051 Lois Dr #508 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	580	$1,400	$2.41	45d	1	0.42mi
3061 Lois Dr Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	567	$1,475	$2.60	25d	2	0.45mi
3007 W 33rd Ave Unit 1 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	600	$1,450	$2.42	45d	1	0.56mi
3101 W 31st Ave Unit 7 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	45d	1	0.64mi
3105 Lakeshore Dr Unit 406B Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	669	$2,000	$2.99	23d	1	0.75mi
1473 W 25th Ave Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	485	$1,290	$2.66	16d	3	0.86mi
2201 Romig Pl Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	530	$1,500	$2.83	45d	1	1.00mi
2421 Bentzen Cir Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0–2.0	685	$1,880	$2.74	16d	9	1.00mi
915 W 27th Ave Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	570	$1,510	$2.65	16d	14	1.01mi
907 W 27th Ave Unit 3 Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	600	$1,275	$2.12	45d	1	1.01mi
601 W 32nd Ave Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	487	$1,225	$2.51	45d	4	1.06mi
3321 Eureka St Anchorage, AK	1.0	1.0	387	$1,280	$3.31	16d	4	1.17mi
2225 Arctic Blvd Anchorage, AK	2.0	1.0	682	$1,645	$2.41	16d	6	1.30mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $114,900 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $114,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 300-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $115,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,601 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,601 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,601
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,892
• − Management: −$2,892
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $18,417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,420
• After-tax cash flow: $14,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 16,486
• Household income: $103,880
• Rent vs Own: 39.9% rent · 60.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 643.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Two or more races 10% Asian 9% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Slovene 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.57%
• Current HPI: 298.4457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $115,000 AKMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $115,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,601 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.