104 Robin St · Cairnbrook, PA 15924

$87,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 723 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1916 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bedroom home on a corner lot that is Move-In Ready! This well-maintained 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home sits on a . 26-acre corner lot in a convenient location. Offering approximately 975 square feet of living space, the thoughtfully laid-out floor plan features a main floor bedroom and full bath— multigenerational living or easy one-level living. The two additional bedrooms are located upstairs. Outside, you'll enjoy a welcoming covered front porch and a side deck ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Additional highlights include a 2-car detached garage and a useful outbuilding for extra storage or workspace. Proudly cared for and nicely updated over the years, this home is read

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Outbuilding
• Side deck

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SIDE DECK
• DETACHED GARAGE
• OUTBUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer available
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one-half levels; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Space heater; Coal heating; Oil heating; Propane heating; Wood heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Master bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($973 rent vs $87k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,180 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Shade-Central City SD (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 658 in PA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cairnbrook El Sch (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #947 of 1,518 statewide, top 65%, 166 students, 100% FRL); Shade Jshs (math 47% / reading 24%, grade F, #305 of 437 statewide, top 70%, 164 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 42% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shade-Central City SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($601 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $84,390 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.80%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $49,375
• Equity at exit: $67,015

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $133,868
• Equity at exit: $133,911

Cash invested: $24,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15924

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $929/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $721

Max offer price $87,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $224	+0% $199	+5% $174	+10% $150
Rent	-10% $122	-5% $161	+0% $199	+5% $237	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $221	base $199	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,750
• Closing costs: $2,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-15
   listed $87,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $929 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,152 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$223/yr (+$19/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,873
• − Property taxes: −$929
• − Insurance: −$435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$934
• − Management: −$934
• − Depreciation: −$2,531
• Taxable income: $1,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$250
• After-tax cash flow: $2,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shade-Central City SD
• NCES district ID: 4221180
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,850
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #6340
• State rank: #411 of 658 in PA

Livability — Cairnbrook

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #1180
• US rank: #13792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 867

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,318 people
• By 2030: 68,555 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,447 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 56,437 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 44,453 · -37.7%
• By 2100: 32,408 · -54.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Slovene 2% Italian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.2) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -57.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.2 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.9 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.16%
• Current HPI: 156.7377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — CSMLS
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — CSMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $87,000 CSMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $929 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.