13651 New Halls Ferry Rd · Florissant, MO 63033

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1986 10,018 sqft lot $89/sqft · 44% below area Est $188k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique Log Home with 3 Bed/2 Full baths, Full Basement, Open Great Floor Plan, Great Yard and Covered Porch, Double Drive and Additional Parking in Front. . Do some work, gain Equity and a Home for the Family or Great investment property. This property is being sold strictly as-is and is priced to reflect the work needed. Property is being sold as-is. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Based Paint Potentially Exists.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Additional parking
• Double drive

Tags

• LOG HOME
• OPEN GREAT FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PORCH
• DOUBLE DRIVE
• ADDITIONAL PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, schools D.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.43%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,125
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -44.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3560 Tremont Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,151 (-2%)	3mo	$199,900	$174	83
1540 Bay Meadows Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+1%)	9mo	$150,000	$126	80
1540 Ascot Ter	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,151 (-2%)	8mo	$159,000	$138	77
30 Reckamp Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,064 (-10%)	11mo	$155,000	$146	71
1605 Koch Dr	0.17mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,064 (-10%)	9mo	$174,900	$164	62
1445 Thoroughbred Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+12%)	10mo	$215,000	$164	59
3345 Steed Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,314 (+12%)	1mo	$259,900	$198	55
2570 Guildford Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,274 (+8%)	5mo	$180,000	$141	55
1400 Paddock Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,221 (+4%)	7mo	$235,000	$192	54
2620 Derby Pl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,271 (+8%)	7mo	$187,500	$148	48
8 Winners Cir	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (+12%)	5mo	$249,900	$190	43
2445 Palomino Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+14%)	11mo	$200,000	$149	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $100,109
• Equity at exit: $94,592

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.75×
• Total profit: $286,509
• Equity at exit: $203,992

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,660 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,006/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $964

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $609	-5% $579	+0% $550	+5% $520	+10% $490
Rent	-10% $418	-5% $484	+0% $550	+5% $615	+10% $681
Rate	-1.0pp $602	-0.5pp $576	base $550	+0.5pp $522	+1.0pp $495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Cantabrian Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,881	$1.31	16d	1	0.29mi
2990 Santiago Dr Florissant, MO	2.0	2.0	984	$1,200	$1.22	45d	1	0.30mi
1600 Horseshoe Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,550	$1.18	45d	1	0.40mi
3209 Cross Keys Dr Florissant, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	3d	1	0.49mi
1785 Trotter Way Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,806	$1.39	8d	1	0.57mi
3930 Belcroft Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	3.0	1408	$1,935	$1.37	45d	1	0.87mi
3144 Sunswept Pk Ct Florissant, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,250	$1.53	3d	12	0.88mi
560 Jamaica Pl Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,653	$1.22	45d	1	1.21mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	3d	17	1.29mi
1670 Arundel Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	25d	1	1.36mi
410 Ridge Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,650	$1.35	19d	1	1.36mi
1004 N New Florissant Rd Florissant, MO	2.0	1.0	719	$1,375	$1.91	25d	1	1.40mi
1045 N New Florissant Rd Florissant, MO	2.0	1.0	783	$1,250	$1.60	16d	1	1.40mi
1983 Greenheath Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,331	$1.28	4d	1	1.41mi
1710 Kay Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	3d	1	1.43mi
4112 Monsols Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,945	$1.74	45d	1	1.44mi
20 Saint Benedict Ln Florissant, MO	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,525	$1.40	21d	1	1.47mi
1725 Saint Catherine St Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	1107	$1,800	$1.63	16d	1	1.47mi
765 Bobbins Ln Florissant, MO	3.0	1.0	1107	$1,450	$1.31	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $115,000 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Unique Log Home with 3 Bed/2 Full baths, Full Basement, Open Great Floor Plan, Great Yard and Covered Porch, Double Drive and Additional Parking in Front. . Do some work, gain Equity and a Home for the Family or Great investment property. This property is being sold strictly as-is and is priced to reflect the work needed. Property is being sold as-is. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Based Paint Potentially Exists.

17. 2026-04-01
    listed $125,000 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Unique Log Home with 3 Bed/2 Full baths, Full Basement, Open Great Floor Plan, Great Yard and Covered Porch, Double Drive and Additional Parking in Front. . Do some work, gain Equity and a Home for the Family or Great investment property. This property is being sold strictly as-is and is priced to reflect the work needed. Property is being sold as-is. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Based Paint Potentially Exists.

18. 2024-07-02
    historical
19. 2024-03-19
    price $135,000
20. 2024-03-04
    price $139,900
21. 2024-02-27
    price $144,500
22. 2024-01-19
    listed $149,900 Active
23. 2019-06-20
    soldstatus $106,500
24. 2005-04-12
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,006 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,006 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,006
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,593
• − Management: −$1,593
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $5,262
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,263
• After-tax cash flow: $5,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Florissant

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #5406

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florissant, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 69,104
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+9.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-02 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-19 Price Changed $135,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $144,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-19 Listed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $106,500 Public Records
• 2005-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,006 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.