3007 Willow Dr · Brandon, MS 39042

$205,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1996 4,791 sqft lot $147/sqft · at area comps Est $208k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cash Flow from Day One in Brandon's Strongest Rental Zip. This professionally managed 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom single family home at 3007 Willow Dr is a turnkey investment opportunity in Brandon, MS. Currently tenant-occupied under a lease running through March 2027, the property generates $1,575 per month in gross rental income, equating to $18,900 annually. The home received a comprehensive renovation prior to the current tenancy, including new carpet throughout, licensed electrical grounding upgrades with a passed City of Brandon inspection, HVAC repairs and servicing, updated appliances, and multiple systems updates. The property has been professionally managed with full work order history, tenant payment records, and repair documentation available to serious buyers upon request. No stabilization period. No vacancy risk. Just verified, documented income from day one. Do not disturb tenant. All showings by appointment only and must be coordinated through the listing agent.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• TURNKEY INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• COMPREHENSIVE RENOVATION
• HVAC REPAIRS AND SERVICING
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• MULTIPLE SYSTEMS UPDATES
• PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,270 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.63%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,146
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -1.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3007 Willow Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,390 (0%)	0mo	$205,000	$147	96
205 Edge Water Branch Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+0%)	2mo	$225,000	$161	87
116 Windchase Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+3%)	6mo	$230,000	$161	85
401 Windchase Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+2%)	5mo	$230,000	$163	80
2030 Red Oak Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+6%)	9mo	$185,000	$125	75
579 Lincolns Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+5%)	8mo	$235,000	$161	74
3019 Willow Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+11%)	4mo	$219,000	$142	73
569 Lincolns Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+3%)	10mo	$222,580	$155	73
3072 Willow Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-12%)	1mo	$199,900	$164	70
368 Highway 468	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,251 (-10%)	8mo	$205,000	$164	65
404 Briars Bnd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+12%)	6mo	$239,500	$154	55
106 Ole Duke Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+10%)	7mo	$250,000	$163	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-18,602
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $29,641
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,931/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,831

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Fox Meadow Dr Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	13d	1	0.66mi
1500 Chapelridge Way Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,609	$1.49	23d	1	0.93mi
1500 Chapelridge Way Brandon, MS	2.0	2.0	921	$1,399	$1.52	21d	1	0.93mi
202 Overby St Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,786	$1.28	43d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending 990-char remark

   Show marketing remark (990 chars)

   Cash Flow from Day One in Brandon's Strongest Rental Zip. This professionally managed 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom single family home at 3007 Willow Dr is a turnkey investment opportunity in Brandon, MS. Currently tenant-occupied under a lease running through March 2027, the property generates $1,575 per month in gross rental income, equating to $18,900 annually. The home received a comprehensive renovation prior to the current tenancy, including new carpet throughout, licensed electrical grounding upgrades with a passed City of Brandon inspection, HVAC repairs and servicing, updated appliances, and multiple systems updates. The property has been professionally managed with full work order history, tenant payment records, and repair documentation available to serious buyers upon request. No stabilization period. No vacancy risk. Just verified, documented income from day one. Do not disturb tenant. All showings by appointment only and must be coordinated through the listing agent.

2. 2026-04-27
   price $205,000 990-char remark

   Show marketing remark (990 chars)

   Cash Flow from Day One in Brandon's Strongest Rental Zip. This professionally managed 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom single family home at 3007 Willow Dr is a turnkey investment opportunity in Brandon, MS. Currently tenant-occupied under a lease running through March 2027, the property generates $1,575 per month in gross rental income, equating to $18,900 annually. The home received a comprehensive renovation prior to the current tenancy, including new carpet throughout, licensed electrical grounding upgrades with a passed City of Brandon inspection, HVAC repairs and servicing, updated appliances, and multiple systems updates. The property has been professionally managed with full work order history, tenant payment records, and repair documentation available to serious buyers upon request. No stabilization period. No vacancy risk. Just verified, documented income from day one. Do not disturb tenant. All showings by appointment only and must be coordinated through the listing agent.

3. 2026-04-09
   listed $215,000 Active 990-char remark

   Show marketing remark (990 chars)

   Cash Flow from Day One in Brandon's Strongest Rental Zip. This professionally managed 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom single family home at 3007 Willow Dr is a turnkey investment opportunity in Brandon, MS. Currently tenant-occupied under a lease running through March 2027, the property generates $1,575 per month in gross rental income, equating to $18,900 annually. The home received a comprehensive renovation prior to the current tenancy, including new carpet throughout, licensed electrical grounding upgrades with a passed City of Brandon inspection, HVAC repairs and servicing, updated appliances, and multiple systems updates. The property has been professionally managed with full work order history, tenant payment records, and repair documentation available to serious buyers upon request. No stabilization period. No vacancy risk. Just verified, documented income from day one. Do not disturb tenant. All showings by appointment only and must be coordinated through the listing agent.

4. 2026-02-27
   historical $1,703
5. 2026-02-13
   listed $1,703
6. 2026-01-22
   historical $1,703
7. 2026-01-13
   price $1,703
8. 2025-12-02
   listed $1,575
9. 2025-12-02
   historical $1,575
10. 2025-11-28
    price $1,575
11. 2025-11-21
    listed $1,645
12. 2025-11-21
    historical $1,645
13. 2025-11-19
    listed $1,645
14. 2025-10-30
    historical $1,645
15. 2025-10-24
    price $1,645
16. 2025-09-28
    price $1,695
17. 2025-09-24
    price $1,725
18. 2025-09-18
    price $1,745
19. 2025-09-17
    listed $1,795
20. 2025-09-15
    historical
21. 2025-08-31
    listed $215,000 Active
22. 2023-03-02
    soldstatus
23. 2021-04-27
    soldstatus
24. 2021-04-27
    soldstatus
25. 2021-03-23
    listed $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,931 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,931 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,931
• − Insurance: −$2,528
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$2,222
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$533
• After-tax cash flow: $1,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+24.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $205,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-09 Listed $215,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-27 Rental Removed $1,703 RENTLY
• 2026-02-13 Listed for Rent $1,703 RENTLY
• 2026-01-22 Rental Removed $1,703 RENTLY
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $1,703 RENTLY
• 2025-12-02 Listed for Rent $1,575 RENTLY
• 2025-12-02 Rental Removed $1,575 ZUMPER1
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $1,575 ZUMPER1
• 2025-11-21 Listed for Rent $1,645 ZUMPER1
• 2025-11-21 Rental Removed $1,645 RENTLY
• 2025-11-19 Listed for Rent $1,645 RENTLY
• 2025-10-30 Rental Removed $1,645 RENTLY
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $1,645 RENTLY
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $1,695 RENTLY
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $1,725 RENTLY
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $1,745 RENTLY
• 2025-09-17 Listed for Rent $1,795 RENTLY
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-08-31 Listed $215,000 MLSU
• 2023-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-27 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-03-23 Listed $165,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,931 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.