15159 Park Way · Adelanto, CA 92301

$425,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1994 7,800 sqft lot Est $527k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained and move-in ready, this spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers over 2,000 square feet of versatile living space designed for comfort and flexibility. Thoughtfully laid out with bedrooms on both the main and upper levels, the home is ideal for multi-generational living, guests, or those planning for long-term ease of living. Situated on an expansive 7,800 sq ft lot, the backyard is a blank canvas ready for your vision--create the perfect outdoor retreat, garden, entertainment space, or future additions. A 2-car garage provides added convenience and storage, while the home's well-kept condition makes it truly move-in ready for its next owner. Opportunities like this

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Move in ready
• Outdoor retreat

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• EXPANSIVE LOT
• OUTDOOR RETREAT
• MULTI GENERATIONAL LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing terms include Conventional, Cash to New Loan, or Cash; Possession options: Close of Escrow or Subject to Tenant's Rights; Sale type: Standard; Short term rentals not allowed; Will not consider lease
• HOA & community: No monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 4 parking spaces; 2-car attached garage; 2 additional uncovered/assigned spaces; Driveway and on-street parking available; Garage door opener
• Security: No security/safety features listed
• Utilities: PUD: No; Sewer: Unknown
• Home design: Detached single family home; Two-story home; Entry level is 1
• Construction: Year built sourced from appraiser
• Exterior features: Entry on first floor; Fee simple land ownership; Not in a gated community

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Brick fireplace in the family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-458 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,250 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 631 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,811/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1345% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $425k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→6/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,123 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.62%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $526,620
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15192 Amber Way	0.19mi	5/3.0	2,010 (0%)	3mo	$390,000	$194	88
10729 Alton Ct	0.21mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,010 (0%)	3mo	$420,000	$209	83
15173 Hill Way	0.38mi	5/3.0	2,276 (+13%)	1mo	$400,000	$176	60
10851 Dove Ln	0.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,756 (-13%)	3mo	$395,000	$225	56
14966 Decarlo Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,874 (-7%)	6mo	$502,260	$268	53
14961 Decarlo Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,874 (-7%)	7mo	$503,415	$269	51
10943 Hillsborough	0.45mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (-12%)	1mo	$465,000	$262	50
10726 Thorndale	0.74mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,963 (-2%)	4mo	$381,000	$194	49
14985 Coppola St	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,775 (-12%)	2mo	$484,685	$273	48
14990 Coppola St	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,775 (-12%)	7mo	$493,400	$278	45
14820 REDWOOD St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (-13%)	6mo	$355,000	$204	44
14958 Decarlo Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,775 (-12%)	6mo	$512,129	$289	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $206,993
• Equity at exit: $382,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $642,780
• Equity at exit: $825,682

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92301

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 631
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,811 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,280/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,391

Max offer price $344,042

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-218	-5% $-338	+0% $-458	+5% $-579	+10% $-699
Rent	-10% $-680	-5% $-569	+0% $-458	+5% $-347	+10% $-236
Rate	-1.0pp $-244	-0.5pp $-350	base $-458	+0.5pp $-568	+1.0pp $-680

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14914 Binford Ave Adelanto, CA	4.0	2.0	1468	$2,400	$1.63	11d	1	0.30mi
10114 Colten Ridge St Adelanto, CA	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,800	$1.58	0d	1	1.25mi
14245 Tierra del Sur St Adelanto, CA	4.0	3.0	2100	$3,200	$1.52	0d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $425,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $425,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $425,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $425,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $425,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-05-08
   listed $425,000 Active
10. 2003-08-20
    soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,280 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,280 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 2 d/yr ≥99°F today · 6 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$3,280
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,699
• − Management: −$2,699
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$13,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,177
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Valley Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636972
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,112
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8296
• State rank: #407 of 517 in CA

Livability — Adelanto

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1250
• US rank: #26338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adelanto, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 38,577
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,577
• Household income: $68,676
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1345.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 34% Black 15% White 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 46%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 41.09%
• Current HPI: 453.6071
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.68%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+157.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $425,000 GPSMLS
• 2003-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,280 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.