408 Debbie St · Quail Creek, TX 77905

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 314 Days on market

Built 1999 0.39 ac lot $53/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER * * Welcome to 408 Debbie – a promising investment opportunity with great potential! This property has been started for you and is ready for your finishing touch. Recent updates include new flooring throughout the living areas and stylish butcher block counter tops in the kitchen. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a dedicated laundry room, the layout is both functional and family-friendly. Whether you're looking to create a cozy home for yourself or generate rental income, this property has it all!

Key facts

• New flooring
• 0.39 acre lot
• Built 1999

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $840 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 2.1% in Quail Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#476 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.41%
• DSCR: 3.47
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,464
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -53.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
96 Reeves Ranch Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	3mo	$161,000	$126	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $42,976
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $106,292
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77905

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $289/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $840

Break-even live

Break-even rent $496

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $65,000 Active 314 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $65,000 Active 313 DOM
3. 2026-04-08
   price $65,000 565-char remark

   Show marketing remark (565 chars)

   * * OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER * * Welcome to 408 Debbie – a promising investment opportunity with great potential! This property has been started for you and is ready for your finishing touch. Recent updates include new flooring throughout the living areas and stylish butcher block counter tops in the kitchen. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a dedicated laundry room, the layout is both functional and family-friendly. Whether you're looking to create a cozy home for yourself or generate rental income, this property has it all!

4. 2026-02-24
   status Active 565-char remark

   Show marketing remark (565 chars)

   * * OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER * * Welcome to 408 Debbie – a promising investment opportunity with great potential! This property has been started for you and is ready for your finishing touch. Recent updates include new flooring throughout the living areas and stylish butcher block counter tops in the kitchen. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a dedicated laundry room, the layout is both functional and family-friendly. Whether you're looking to create a cozy home for yourself or generate rental income, this property has it all!

5. 2026-01-31
   historical 565-char remark

   Show marketing remark (565 chars)

   * * OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER * * Welcome to 408 Debbie – a promising investment opportunity with great potential! This property has been started for you and is ready for your finishing touch. Recent updates include new flooring throughout the living areas and stylish butcher block counter tops in the kitchen. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a dedicated laundry room, the layout is both functional and family-friendly. Whether you're looking to create a cozy home for yourself or generate rental income, this property has it all!

6. 2025-09-18
   price $85,000 565-char remark

   Show marketing remark (565 chars)

   * * OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER * * Welcome to 408 Debbie – a promising investment opportunity with great potential! This property has been started for you and is ready for your finishing touch. Recent updates include new flooring throughout the living areas and stylish butcher block counter tops in the kitchen. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a dedicated laundry room, the layout is both functional and family-friendly. Whether you're looking to create a cozy home for yourself or generate rental income, this property has it all!

7. 2025-08-08
   price $95,000 565-char remark

   Show marketing remark (565 chars)

   * * OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER * * Welcome to 408 Debbie – a promising investment opportunity with great potential! This property has been started for you and is ready for your finishing touch. Recent updates include new flooring throughout the living areas and stylish butcher block counter tops in the kitchen. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a dedicated laundry room, the layout is both functional and family-friendly. Whether you're looking to create a cozy home for yourself or generate rental income, this property has it all!

8. 2025-06-27
   listed $100,000 Active 565-char remark

   Show marketing remark (565 chars)

   * * OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE WITH ACCEPTABLE OFFER * * Welcome to 408 Debbie – a promising investment opportunity with great potential! This property has been started for you and is ready for your finishing touch. Recent updates include new flooring throughout the living areas and stylish butcher block counter tops in the kitchen. With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a dedicated laundry room, the layout is both functional and family-friendly. Whether you're looking to create a cozy home for yourself or generate rental income, this property has it all!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $289 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$901/yr (+$75/mo · 311.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$289
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,498
• − Management: −$1,498
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $9,578
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,299
• After-tax cash flow: $7,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Quail Creek

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #9560

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,346

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.60%
• Current HPI: 139.4036
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $65,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $85,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $95,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listed $100,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

-6.1%/yr

Latest (2021): $289 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.