1009 4th Ave NE · Austin, MN 55912

$127,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Other public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1883 7,230 sqft lot $128/sqft · at area comps Est $142k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located near downtown and highway access, this 3 Bedroom, 1 Bath Home in NE Austin, MN has a double garage and with spring just around the corner, you can prepare to enjoy the two decks, one outside the kitchen patio doors in the back yard and the other just off the front of the house.

Key facts

• Double garage
• Kitchen patio doors
• Two decks

Tags

• DOUBLE GARAGE
• TWO DECKS
• KITCHEN PATIO DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.5% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#77 in MN, #1,829 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F.
• Austin Public School District (town): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #267 of 301 in MN (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 53 units permitted in Mower County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $884 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $128k implies a 481% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1883 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $112,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1883 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.12%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,913
• List price: $127,900
• Delta: -9.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $8,212
• Equity at exit: $19,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $69,880
• Equity at exit: $11,058

Cash invested: $35,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55912

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,338/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,058

Max offer price $127,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $404	-5% $368	+0% $332	+5% $296	+10% $259
Rent	-10% $215	-5% $273	+0% $332	+5% $390	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $396	-0.5pp $364	base $332	+0.5pp $299	+1.0pp $265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,975
• Closing costs: $3,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1204 1st Ave NE Austin, MN	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	0.30mi
704 1st Dr NW Austin, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	981	$2,514	$2.56	44d	96	0.68mi
800 8th Ave SE Austin, MN	3.0	1.0	842	$1,600	$1.90	44d	1	0.76mi
202 11th Ave NW Unit 602 Austin, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	0.83mi
401 2nd Ave SW Unit 102 Austin, MN	3.0	1.0	780	$1,025	$1.31	44d	1	0.87mi
1921 3rd Ave NE Austin, MN	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,600	$1.29	44d	1	0.90mi
609 11th St NW Austin, MN	2.0	2.0	925	$1,300	$1.41	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $127,900 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $127,900 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,900 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,900 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,900 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,900 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $127,900 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $127,900 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,900 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $127,900 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $127,900 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $127,900 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,900 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,900 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,900 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $127,900 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-04-25
    price $127,900 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Located near downtown and highway access, this 3 Bedroom, 1 Bath Home in NE Austin, MN has a double garage and with spring just around the corner, you can prepare to enjoy the two decks, one outside the kitchen patio doors in the back yard and the other just off the front of the house.

18. 2026-01-29
    listed $132,900 Active 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Located near downtown and highway access, this 3 Bedroom, 1 Bath Home in NE Austin, MN has a double garage and with spring just around the corner, you can prepare to enjoy the two decks, one outside the kitchen patio doors in the back yard and the other just off the front of the house.

19. 2022-10-28
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,338 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,385 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$47/yr (+$4/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,338
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,419
• − Management: −$1,419
• − Depreciation: −$3,721
• Taxable income: $2,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$488
• After-tax cash flow: $3,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703450
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $43,818
• Composite: 24.75/100
• National rank: #7604
• State rank: #267 of 301 in MN

Livability — Austin

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #1829

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, MN
• County: Mower County · 29,632 people
• City population: 29,632
• Metro: Austin, MN
• Population (ZIP): 29,632
• Household income: $70,177
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 759.0

Population outlook (Mower County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,967 people
• By 2030: 40,204 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 40,509 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 40,841 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 42,029 · +5.2%
• By 2100: 42,272 · +5.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 8% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 16% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mower

• 2024 margin: R (+10.5) · D 43.9% · R 54.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.1pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: -10.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.5 2020: R+5.8 2016: R+7.8 2012: D+22.7 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.60%
• Current HPI: 271.4199
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.62%
• Metro: Austin, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+481.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $127,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listed $132,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,338 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.