47 Coral Bell Holw · Toms River, NJ 08755

$279,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1970 6,970 sqft lot Est $291k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With 2 cozy bedrooms and a full bathroom, this residence spans 1,040 square feet, providing ample space for relaxation and comfort. Step inside to the living room with a warm and welcoming ambiance. The kitchen is equipped with essential appliances, including a refrigerator, stove, dishwasher, making daily living a breeze and also has a side door for ease of access to the yard. It also features a sliding door to a raised deck and (partially completed) three season room. The heart of the home in the full basement includes a cozy free-standing woodstove, perfect for those chilly evenings. The basement is also heated with interior access and an outside entrance, offering versatile space for a workshop or additional storage. Outside, the lot backs to tranquil trees and a gentle stream, creating a serene backdrop for your daily life. Located on a quiet cul-de-sac, this home provides a sense of privacy and community. Residents can enjoy the association amenities, including a clubhouse and common grounds, fostering a sense of belonging. The neighborhood is conveniently located near local shops, dining, and recreational opportunities, ensuring that everything you need is just a short drive away. Experience the comfort and community spirit that this lovely home has to offer! The 3 zone hot water baseboard natural gas heating system is relatively new as is the gas hot water heater. It also has central air conditioning. With some mostly minor repairs and other upgrades this could be a jewel.

Key facts

• Three season room
• Heated basement
• Raised deck

Tags

• ESSENTIAL APPLIANCES
• SIDE DOOR ACCESS
• RAISED DECK
• THREE SEASON ROOM
• FREE-STANDING WOODSTOVE
• HEATED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple
• HOA & community: HOA amenities include a clubhouse and common grounds; HOA fee of $300 annually; Senior community with 55+ age requirement

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage (1 car); Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Estimated year built; Entry faces cul-de-sac (property located on a cul-de-sac)
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Full basement with interior access and outside entrance; Basement partially finished (approximately 60% finished) with workshop space
• Exterior features: Property backs to trees; Located on a cul-de-sac; Stream/creek on or near the lot; Above-grade and below-grade additional structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard hot water heating; Zoned heating; Wood-burning stove; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Carpet throughout (as noted); Free-standing fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Natural gas hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $275k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $279k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,815 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.13%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Wall Cress Ct	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-2%)	1mo	$279,000	$272	93
27 Coral Bell Holw	0.04mi	2/1.0	1,052 (+1%)	8mo	$185,000	$176	90
50 Golden Glow Circus	0.18mi	2/1.0	1,040 (0%)	6mo	$317,000	$305	87
44 Gardenia Way	0.13mi	2/1.0	966 (-7%)	3mo	$270,000	$280	79
49 Green Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-2%)	6mo	$180,000	$176	76
33 Gardenia Way	0.18mi	2/1.0	960 (-8%)	4mo	$253,000	$264	75
74 Fox Glove	0.11mi	2/1.0	916 (-12%)	2mo	$295,000	$322	74
95 Larkspur Ct	0.15mi	2/1.0	916 (-12%)	3mo	$193,500	$211	70
33 Sunflower Ln	0.29mi	2/1.0	966 (-7%)	7mo	$240,000	$248	69
16 Hare Bell Holw	0.25mi	2/1.0	916 (-12%)	3mo	$260,000	$284	66
61 Golden Glow Circus	0.14mi	2/1.0	896 (-14%)	7mo	$300,000	$335	65
28 Bellflower Ct	0.29mi	2/1.0	896 (-14%)	6mo	$251,000	$280	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-24,019
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $6,446
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,829 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,778/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,408

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $490	-5% $411	+0% $332	+5% $253	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $221	+0% $332	+5% $444	+10% $556
Rate	-1.0pp $473	-0.5pp $403	base $332	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13 Swain Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,199	$2.13	18d	1	0.52mi
1091 W Whitty Rd Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1758	$2,850	$1.62	0d	4	0.63mi
1255 NJ-166 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$1,994	$2.12	45d	1	0.93mi
1255 NJ-166 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$2,199	$2.34	25d	1	0.93mi
1255 New Jersey 166 Unit D9 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$2,199	$2.34	45d	1	0.96mi
1255 New Jersey 166 Unit A4 Toms River, NJ	1.0	2.0	990	$2,045	$2.07	45d	1	0.96mi
3600 Cypress Point Dr Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,964	$2.53	0d	17	1.11mi
30 Green View Way Toms River, NJ	1.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1450	$2,695	$1.86	0d	1	1.31mi
1732 4th Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1248	$3,500	$2.80	0d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: watergaslandscaping

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $279,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,778 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,863 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,085/yr (+$174/mo · 75.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,778
• − Insurance: −$2,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,715
• − Management: −$2,715
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$121
• After-tax cash flow: $4,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+493.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $279,000 MOMLS
• 2026-06-06 Listed $279,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $118,500 Public Records
• 2012-09-21 Sold (MLS) $118,500 MOMLS
• 2012-08-01 Listed $124,900 MOMLS
• 1987-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 1982-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,778 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.