618 Vz County Road 3416 · Wills Point, TX 75169

$146,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 1999 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of a Kind! Attractive & Affordable! Three bedroom, two bath doublewide mobile home located on the each of town. Fenced yard - both front & back ! Inviting deck welcomes you into the living area with built in shelves! Updated flooring is laminate plank and fresh paint in cool, neutral colors make this home light & bright! Dining area is open to living & kitchen. Kitchen has many cabinets, dishwasher, and electric range. Fantastic backyard deck. Master bedroom has adjoining bath with garden tub. Two secondary bedrooms. Seller Motivated to sale.

Key facts

• Electric range
• Fenced yard
• Many cabinets

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• INVITING DECK
• BUILT IN SHELVES
• UPDATED FLOORING
• MANY CABINETS
• ELECTRIC RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.4% in Wills Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,174 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wills Point ISD (town): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #556 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $146k implies a 4086% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,858 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-14,541
• Equity at exit: $21,844

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,031
• Equity at exit: $12,667

Cash invested: $41,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,269 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$768
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $327/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,084

Max offer price $146,500

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $187	+0% $146	+5% $104	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $45	-5% $96	+0% $146	+5% $196	+10% $246
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $183	base $146	+0.5pp $108	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,625
• Closing costs: $4,395
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Melody Ln Unit 203 Wills Point, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	8d	1	0.89mi
100 Melody Ln Unit 204 Wills Point, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	8d	1	0.89mi
121 Post Oak Rd Wills Point, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,695	$1.30	44d	1	0.90mi
218 6th St Wills Point, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,000	$0.98	21d	1	1.01mi
36908 State Highway 64 Unit A Wills Point, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	19d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $146,500 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $146,500 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $146,500 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $146,500 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,500 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,500 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $146,500 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $146,500 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $146,500 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $146,500 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $146,500 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $146,500 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $146,500 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $146,500 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $147,500 Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    One of a Kind! Attractive & Affordable! Three bedroom, two bath doublewide mobile home located on the each of town. Fenced yard - both front & back ! Inviting deck welcomes you into the living area with built in shelves! Updated flooring is laminate plank and fresh paint in cool, neutral colors make this home light & bright! Dining area is open to living & kitchen. Kitchen has many cabinets, dishwasher, and electric range. Fantastic backyard deck. Master bedroom has adjoining bath with garden tub. Two secondary bedrooms. Seller Motivated to sale.

16. 2026-02-13
    historical
17. 2026-02-13
    status Active
18. 2026-01-02
    price $147,500
19. 2025-10-21
    price $149,500
20. 2025-09-23
    listed $159,000 Active
21. 2024-10-04
    historical
22. 2024-08-10
    price $162,000
23. 2024-06-08
    price $172,700
24. 2024-05-05
    listed $182,700 Active
25. 2022-11-30
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2022-11-04
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2022-10-26
    status Active
28. 2022-10-26
    historical Active Option Contract
29. 2022-08-22
    listed $160,000 Active
30. 2006-02-14
    soldstatus $3,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $327 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,681 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,354/yr (+$196/mo · 719.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,206
• − Property taxes: −$327
• − Insurance: −$732
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,218
• − Management: −$1,218
• − Depreciation: −$4,262
• Taxable loss: −$740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$178
• After-tax cash flow: $1,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wills Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845950
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,534
• Composite: 28.58/100
• National rank: #6721
• State rank: #556 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wills Point

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1174
• US rank: #20542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,744
• Population (ZIP): 15,744

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4114.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $147,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $147,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $149,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-08-10 Price Changed $162,000 NTREIS
• 2024-06-08 Price Changed $172,700 NTREIS
• 2024-05-05 Listed $182,700 NTREIS
• 2022-11-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-11-04 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-10-26 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-10-26 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-08-22 Listed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2006-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $3,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $327 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.