421 Farm Road 2160 · Exeter, MO 65647

$79,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 944 sqft · SingleFamily · 101 Days on market

Built 1915 Poor condition 2.00 ac lot $84/sqft · 90% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2 acres with creek frontage that has springs that allow continuous water flow. The home and out buildings need extensive repairs but could be made into a cute home. It has a partial basement with poured concrete. Value is in the land. Has a well and electric but septic is unknown. Great peaceful area with closest neighbor about 1/4 mile away. Excellent opportunity to make this property truly special. Sold as is. Seller has no real knowledge of the property so no seller's disclosure.

Key facts

• Partial basement
• Well
• Creek frontage

Tags

• CREEK FRONTAGE
• CONTINUOUS WATER FLOW
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• POURED CONCRETE
• WELL
• ELECTRIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($954 rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#259 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Wheaton R-III (rural): math 26% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #271 of 324 in MO (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Barry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Barry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.26%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $768,937
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -89.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $20,419
• Equity at exit: $36,768

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $57,763
• Equity at exit: $57,651

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65647

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $761

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $79,000 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Beautiful 2 acres with creek frontage that has springs that allow continuous water flow. The home and out buildings need extensive repairs but could be made into a cute home. It has a partial basement with poured concrete. Value is in the land. Has a well and electric but septic is unknown. Great peaceful area with closest neighbor about 1/4 mile away. Excellent opportunity to make this property truly special. Sold as is. Seller has no real knowledge of the property so no seller's disclosure.

16. 2026-05-01
    price $79,000 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Beautiful 2 acres with creek frontage that has springs that allow continuous water flow. The home and out buildings need extensive repairs but could be made into a cute home. It has a partial basement with poured concrete. Value is in the land. Has a well and electric but septic is unknown. Great peaceful area with closest neighbor about 1/4 mile away. Excellent opportunity to make this property truly special. Sold as is. Seller has no real knowledge of the property so no seller's disclosure.

17. 2026-03-06
    listed $89,000 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Beautiful 2 acres with creek frontage that has springs that allow continuous water flow. The home and out buildings need extensive repairs but could be made into a cute home. It has a partial basement with poured concrete. Value is in the land. Has a well and electric but septic is unknown. Great peaceful area with closest neighbor about 1/4 mile away. Excellent opportunity to make this property truly special. Sold as is. Seller has no real knowledge of the property so no seller's disclosure.

18. 2026-03-06
    listed $89,000 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Beautiful 2 acres with creek frontage that has springs that allow continuous water flow. The home and out buildings need extensive repairs but could be made into a cute home. It has a partial basement with poured concrete. Value is in the land. Has a well and electric but septic is unknown. Great peaceful area with closest neighbor about 1/4 mile away. Excellent opportunity to make this property truly special. Sold as is. Seller has no real knowledge of the property so no seller's disclosure.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$1,062
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$916
• − Management: −$916
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$155
• After-tax cash flow: $1,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to become move-in ready. Significant work is needed on the roof, exterior, interior, and landscaping to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage visible
• Major exterior siding — Peeling and damaged
• Major interior walls — Exposed framing and missing drywall
• Major bathrooms — Exposed plumbing and fixtures
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt
• Major fencing — Damaged and incomplete

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Resale exterior siding repair — A new exterior would enhance curb appeal
• Resale interior wall repair and drywall installation — A clean, finished interior would attract buyers
• Resale bathroom renovation — Modern bathrooms are a key selling point
• Both landscaping and fencing repair — A well-maintained yard and fence would improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Peeling and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Exposed framing and missing drywall	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · Exposed plumbing and fixtures	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
fencing · Damaged and incomplete	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale exterior siding repair — A new exterior would enhance curb appeal ↑
• Resale interior wall repair and drywall installation — A clean, finished interior would attract buyers ↑
• Resale bathroom renovation — Modern bathrooms are a key selling point ↑
• Both landscaping and fencing repair — A well-maintained yard and fence would improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wheaton R-III
• NCES district ID: 2931950
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,531
• Composite: 25.42/100
• National rank: #7456
• State rank: #271 of 324 in MO

Livability — Exeter

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #12444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,152

Population outlook (Barry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,207 people
• By 2030: 34,460 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 32,643 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 30,688 · -12.8%
• By 2075: 26,898 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 22,000 · -37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Asian 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Philippines, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Barry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 17.8% · R 81.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.8 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Current HPI: 187.0775
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $79,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $79,000 SOMO
• 2026-03-06 Listed $89,000 SOMO
• 2026-03-06 Listed $89,000 NWARMLS