5 Spread Oak Ln · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$2,495,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 1996 1.20 ac lot $998/sqft · 5% above area Est $2371k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

East Hampton-Bright Idyllic Renovated Retreat on 7 acre Reserve This idyllic, recently updated 4-bedroom, 4-bathroom home is tucked away in the sought-after Northwest Harbor area of East Hampton, just a short drive from East Hampton Village. The home blends relaxed elegance with modern functionality, featuring a bright and open floor plan that flows seamlessly to the outdoor entertaining areas and sunlit pool. A newly renovated kitchen with a large marble island, top-of-the-line appliances, and an adjoining dining area opens to a spacious, airy living room with a wood-burning fireplace, double-height vaulted ceilings, and a skylight that fills the space with natural light. Large glass doors lead out to an expansive, gated mahogany deck-perfect for lounging or al fresco dining. The first floor includes a comfortable guest bedroom and a full bathroom. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite is a private retreat, with a wall of windows overlooking the beautifully landscaped backyard, a walk-in closet, and a sleek en-suite bathroom. An additional en-suite bedroom is also located on the second floor. The fully finished lower level with brand new floors includes an additional bedroom and new full bath, and plenty of flexible space for guests or recreation. Outside, the property has been recently refreshed with new paint, roof, shutters, and lush landscaping. The backyard features a large, heated saline pool, an outdoor shower, and multiple seating areas. A built-in outdoor kitchen with grill and outdoor fridge, and propane firepit make this the perfect spot for summer entertaining. The home sits on over an acre and borders approximately 7 acres of reserve land to the south, offering added privacy and tranquil natural surroundings.

Key facts

• Heated saline pool
• Renovated kitchen
• Gated mahogany deck

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• GATED MAHOGANY DECK
• HEATED SALINE POOL
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR SHOWER
• PROPANE FIREPIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($42k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.32M (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.32M (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,173/mo this rent would consume 214% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $75k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $699k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.35M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $255k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,317,252 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.97%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,371,456
• List price: $2,495,000
• Delta: 5.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Bloom Ave	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,500 (0%)	15mo	$2,695,000	$1,078	73
8 Cordwood Ln	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,345 (-6%)	5mo	$1,700,000	$725	59
636 Hands Creek Rd	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,800 (+12%)	5mo	$1,680,000	$600	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-61,560
• Equity at exit: $372,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $784,263
• Equity at exit: $215,722

Cash invested: $698,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,084
• Tax from tax record: −$706 /mo · $8,476/yr
• Insurance: −$1,040
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,866
• Net cashflow: $3,476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $18,772

Max offer price $2,495,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $623,750
• Closing costs: $74,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Ely Brook Rd East Hampton, NY	5.0	4.5	2914	$45,000	$15.44	24d	1	0.80mi
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	24d	1	0.83mi
8 White Pine Rd East Hampton, NY	5.0	3.5	2000	$60,000	$30.00	24d	1	0.84mi
210 Treescape Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	2400	$25,000	$10.42	43d	1	0.92mi
202 Treescape Dr Unit 10B East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2200	$50,000	$22.73	24d	1	1.02mi
643 Stephen Hands Path East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	3200	$65,000	$20.31	43d	1	1.04mi
10 Villa Ave East Hampton, NY	3.0	4.0	2200	$35,000	$15.91	24d	1	1.31mi
4 Marion Ln East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	3200	$90,000	$28.12	43d	1	1.33mi
36 Barnes Ave East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2346	$55,000	$23.44	24d	1	1.37mi
15 Rivers Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	4.0	2400	$45,000	$18.75	43d	1	1.37mi
3 Mulford Ave East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.5	2700	$30,000	$11.11	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $2,495,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,750,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,750,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,750,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,750,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,750,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    listed $2,750,000 Active 1752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1752 chars)

    East Hampton-Bright Idyllic Renovated Retreat on 7 acre Reserve This idyllic, recently updated 4-bedroom, 4-bathroom home is tucked away in the sought-after Northwest Harbor area of East Hampton, just a short drive from East Hampton Village. The home blends relaxed elegance with modern functionality, featuring a bright and open floor plan that flows seamlessly to the outdoor entertaining areas and sunlit pool. A newly renovated kitchen with a large marble island, top-of-the-line appliances, and an adjoining dining area opens to a spacious, airy living room with a wood-burning fireplace, double-height vaulted ceilings, and a skylight that fills the space with natural light. Large glass doors lead out to an expansive, gated mahogany deck-perfect for lounging or al fresco dining. The first floor includes a comfortable guest bedroom and a full bathroom. Upstairs, the oversized primary suite is a private retreat, with a wall of windows overlooking the beautifully landscaped backyard, a walk-in closet, and a sleek en-suite bathroom. An additional en-suite bedroom is also located on the second floor. The fully finished lower level with brand new floors includes an additional bedroom and new full bath, and plenty of flexible space for guests or recreation. Outside, the property has been recently refreshed with new paint, roof, shutters, and lush landscaping. The backyard features a large, heated saline pool, an outdoor shower, and multiple seating areas. A built-in outdoor kitchen with grill and outdoor fridge, and propane firepit make this the perfect spot for summer entertaining. The home sits on over an acre and borders approximately 7 acres of reserve land to the south, offering added privacy and tranquil natural surroundings.

16. 2026-03-14
    listed
17. 2025-09-15
    price $2,875,000
18. 2025-07-16
    listed $2,995,000 Active
19. 2021-12-17
    soldstatus $2,200,000
20. 2016-08-23
    soldstatus $1,100,000
21. 2012-07-31
    soldstatus $955,000
22. 2003-10-01
    soldstatus $795,000
23. 2002-05-14
    soldstatus $680,000
24. 1997-10-22
    soldstatus $429,000
25. 1995-07-26
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,476 · $706/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $25,321 · $2,110/mo
• Expected delta: +$16,845/yr (+$1,404/mo · 198.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $278,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$139,759
• − Property taxes: −$8,476
• − Insurance: −$12,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,246
• − Management: −$22,246
• − Depreciation: −$72,582
• Taxable income: $287
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$69
• After-tax cash flow: $41,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3135.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $2,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed for Rent — ONEKEY
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $2,875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Listed $2,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $2,200,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $1,100,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $955,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $795,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $680,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $429,000 Public Records
• 1995-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,476 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.