807 Estate Dr · O'Fallon, IL 62269

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1976 6,969 sqft lot Est $177k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW what a find! Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 bathroom with 1 car attached and privacy fenced lot. Boasting tons of updates such as newer flooring in the living room and kitchen with open concept entertaining floor plan. This home features all the conveniences of O'Fallon with a super affordable price!

Key facts

• Spacious level lot
• Open layout
• Center island

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• CENTER ISLAND
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• SPACIOUS LEVEL LOT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Gazebo

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen/dining room combo; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.8% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• O Fallon Twp Hsd 203 (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #145 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.49%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,904
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
803 Estate Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,062 (+14%)	13mo	$147,000	$138	66
403 E 4th St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (0%)	15mo	$154,900	$165	58
104 W Jackson St	0.75mi	3/1.0	900 (-4%)	1mo	$182,500	$203	54
406 E 3rd St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+3%)	19mo	$185,000	$193	54
512 E Adams St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (+9%)	15mo	$189,900	$186	52
408 E Washington St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,072 (+14%)	2mo	$189,000	$176	50
305 S Augusta St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	875 (-6%)	20mo	$165,000	$189	48
414 E Washington St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	865 (-8%)	24mo	$170,000	$197	44
217 E Fourth St	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,024 (+9%)	11mo	$235,000	$229	43
201 W Washington St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,076 (+15%)	1mo	$250,000	$232	42
704 S Hilgard St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	975 (+4%)	18mo	$165,000	$169	41
706 S Vine St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,027 (+10%)	8mo	$174,900	$170	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,684
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $34,414
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62269

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,194/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,235

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Lee Dr Unit 3 O'Fallon, IL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,025	$1.71	1d	1	0.07mi
103 E 7th St O'Fallon, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	1d	1	0.77mi
823 N Cherry St Unit 1 O'Fallon, IL	2.0	1.5	1115	$1,400	$1.26	1d	1	0.98mi
312 Joy Dr O Fallon, IL	2.0	1.0	1052	$1,395	$1.33	1d	1	1.03mi
507 W 4th St O Fallon, IL	2.0	1.0	1073	$1,625	$1.51	3d	1	1.10mi
418 Donna Dr O Fallon, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	7d	1	1.26mi
418 Donna Dr O Fallon, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	1d	1	1.26mi
805 Juniper Dr O Fallon, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,595	$1.85	7d	1	1.32mi
805 Juniper Dr O Fallon, IL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,595	$1.85	1d	1	1.32mi
1523 English Pne Belleville, IL	2.0	3.0	1050	$2,195	$2.09	2d	1	1.42mi
1523 English Pne Belleville, IL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,195	$2.09	4d	1	1.42mi
1523 English Pne Belleville, IL	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,095	$2.00	1d	1	1.42mi
109 Sugar Pine Ln O Fallon, IL	2.0	1.0	980	$1,095	$1.12	1d	1	1.44mi
129 Sugar Pine Ln O'Fallon, IL	2.0	1.0	875	$750	$0.86	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,686 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$492/yr (+$41/mo · 22.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,194
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,403
• − Management: −$1,403
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$75
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$18
• After-tax cash flow: $2,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: O Fallon Twp Hsd 203
• NCES district ID: 1729790
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $82,945
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5240
• State rank: #145 of 620 in IL

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: O'Fallon, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 35,536
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 35,923
• Household income: $103,818
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1233.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.35%
• Current HPI: 177.759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.64%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+197.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Rental Removed $1,695 MARIS
• 2025-10-07 Listed for Rent $1,695 MARIS
• 2025-10-07 Rental Removed $1,695 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-10-04 Listed for Rent $1,695 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-07-09 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-12 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $145,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-09 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 2019-09-13 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-03 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-09 Listed $76,975 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records
• 1995-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1995-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,194 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.