152 Duke Ln · Roxboro, NC 27574

$399,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1974 1.17 ac lot Est $778k · 49% under $42/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming lake retreat w/ 2-beds 2-baths on the main floor as well as an eat-in kitchen and living area with wood burning fireplace. 3rd floor loft can be used for a bunk room, craft room or office. Take in the water views as soon as you step in the front door. Double sliding doors lead you to the 400+ sq. ft. trex deck. Unfinished lower level with wood burning fireplace is heated and cooled. Walk out basement leads to covered patio. This waterfront property offers direct access to Hyco Lake for kayaking, canoeing and fishing. The property encompasses over 1.17 acres of land w/ 144 ft of shoreline. Single slip dock with 4,000lb lift is in place but is not useable for motorboat access. Serene

Key facts

• Water views
• 3rd floor loft
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• 3RD FLOOR LOFT
• WATER VIEWS
• TREX DECK
• WALK OUT BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road frontage: easement/private road on privately maintained road with a road maintenance agreement; Road surface: asphalt, gravel and paved
• HOA & community: Association: Hyco Lake Authority and Quail Hollow HOA; Annual association fees (two listed): $152.25 and $350.00; Association fee includes road maintenance; Community features: Lake

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking available (6 spaces); Gravel/shared driveway
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Water connected; Septic connected
• Home design: Site-built home; One and one-half stories; Front door entry; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Wood siding and concrete construction materials; Concrete and block foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Has a full, heated daylight basement with exterior and interior entry, sump pump, unfinished areas and walk-out access
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch, deck, front porch and patio; Boat slip and dock; Boat house; Partially wooded lot; Lakefront on Hyco Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Concrete; Parquet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Electric and oil (also listed as none); Central air and heat pump cooling; Cooling: Electric
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; High ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Stone counters; Bathtub/shower combination; Walk-in shower; Sliding doors; Two wood-burning fireplaces (living room and basement)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included; Laundry in hall / laundry closet on main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.5% in Roxboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $282k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.80%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $778,240
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Little Duck Ln	0.15mi	2/1.5	1,208 (-6%)	9mo	$735,000	$608	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $311,585
• Equity at exit: $360,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.53×
• Total profit: $843,529
• Equity at exit: $776,918

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27574

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,041/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $1,474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,134

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,701	-5% $1,587	+0% $1,474	+5% $1,361	+10% $1,248
Rent	-10% $1,079	-5% $1,277	+0% $1,474	+5% $1,672	+10% $1,869
Rate	-1.0pp $1,676	-0.5pp $1,576	base $1,474	+0.5pp $1,371	+1.0pp $1,265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Duke Ln Roxboro, NC	3.0	2.0	1600	$5,000	$3.12	21d	1	0.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $399,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,041 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,279 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,238/yr (+$103/mo · 60.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$2,041
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable income: $11,821
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,837
• After-tax cash flow: $14,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 14,163

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.68%
• Current HPI: 276.8767
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+38.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $399,900 TMLS
• 2007-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $282,000 Public Records
• 2006-11-30 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2005-10-13 Listed $289,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,041 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.