2207 Anders Dr · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$449,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $471k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this thoughtfully designed Palm home. Included features: a welcoming covered porch; a well-appointed kitchen offering a roomy pantry, a center island and an adjacent nook; a large great room; a main-floor bedroom and bathroom; an airy loft; a lavish primary suite showcasing a generous walk-in closet and a private bath with double sinks; a convenient laundry; a drop zone and a covered patio. This could be your dream home!

Key facts

• Main-floor bedroom
• Roomy pantry
• Center island

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• ROOMY PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• LARGE GREAT ROOM
• MAIN-FLOOR BEDROOM
• MAIN-FLOOR BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $449,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family residence; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2170

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Palm plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $450k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $447k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $443k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,470/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($114k/yr) (locally 219% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($443k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $443,249 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $470,890
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14519 Banks Ct	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,170 (0%)	1mo	$444,999	$205	94
14514 20th St E	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,197 (+1%)	2mo	$450,000	$205	90
14620 20th St E	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,197 (+1%)	3mo	$413,500	$188	89
14404 20th St E	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,139 (-1%)	24mo	$450,000	$210	69
14314 17th Ct E	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,129 (-2%)	5mo	$462,500	$217	67
1825 Twin Rivers Trl	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,309 (+6%)	10mo	$730,000	$316	66
15914 29th St E	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,288 (+5%)	16mo	$620,000	$271	40
13805 22nd Ct E	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,446 (+13%)	23mo	$660,000	$270	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-59,125
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-67,291
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,750/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$939
• Net cashflow: $421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,937

Max offer price $449,999

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $732	-5% $577	+0% $421	+5% $266	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $68	-5% $245	+0% $421	+5% $598	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $648	-0.5pp $536	base $421	+0.5pp $305	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1043 145th Street Cir NE Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2600	$7,000	$2.69	22d	1	1.19mi
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.32mi
13744 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2274	$3,000	$1.32	22d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,999 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,999 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,999 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,999 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,999 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,999 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,999 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,999 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,999 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $449,999 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 433-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $449,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,750
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,291
• − Management: −$4,291
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$538
• After-tax cash flow: $5,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value include painting, landscaping, kitchen appliances, and bathroom fixtures.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B