9011 Old Hwy 99 SE #131 · Tumwater, WA 98501

$119,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 910 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1974 $132/sqft · 73% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully redone 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home offering comfort, style, and affordability in the Melody Pines Estates community. With nearly 1,000 SF of living space, this home features a bright open layout with vaulted ceilings and abundant natural lighting. The fully updated kitchen showcases modern cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, butcher block counters, and a spacious island that flows seamlessly into the main living area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Fresh finishes, laminate flooring, recessed lighting, and double-pane windows create a clean, contemporary feel throughout. The primary suite includes its own bath, while two addition

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Entry deck
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERS
• ENTRY DECK
• GENEROUSLY SIZED YARD
• RV PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $988 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 305 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $109,154 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.29%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,980
• List price: $119,950
• Delta: 59.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9011 SE Old Highway 99 #419	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-2%)	8mo	$75,000	$84	86
9011 Old Highway 99 SE #415	0.00mi	3/1.5	982 (+8%)	2mo	$71,000	$72	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $45,371
• Equity at exit: $17,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $128,457
• Equity at exit: $10,371

Cash invested: $33,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98501

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $365/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $988

Break-even live

Break-even rent $898

Max offer price $119,950

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,056	-5% $1,022	+0% $988	+5% $954	+10% $920
Rent	-10% $818	-5% $903	+0% $988	+5% $1,073	+10% $1,157
Rate	-1.0pp $1,048	-0.5pp $1,018	base $988	+0.5pp $957	+1.0pp $925

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,988
• Closing costs: $3,598
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,950 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,950 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,950 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,950 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,950 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,950 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,950 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $119,950 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,950 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,950 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,950 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,950 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,950 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,950 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,950 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,950 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-03-13
    listed $129,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $365 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$810/yr (+$68/mo · 221.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,719
• − Property taxes: −$365
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − Depreciation: −$3,489
• Taxable income: $10,482
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,516
• After-tax cash flow: $9,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 48,067
• Household income: $97,198
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1653.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 5% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -413.86%
• Current HPI: 340.9379
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $129,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $365 · +2532.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.