22877 E Parkwood Dr · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 274 Days on market

Built 2007 7,405 sqft lot $143/sqft · 9% below area Est $209k · 9% under $206/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOTS OF BRIGHT AND CHEERFUL SUNLIGHT BEAMS THRU THIS 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME, PLUS A 2 CAR GARAGE. LOCATED IN A GREAT COMMUNITY KNOWN AS YOSEMITE VISTA ESTATES A 55 AND OLDER DEVELOPEMENT. IT IS ALSO ONLY APPROX. 20 MI. FROM THE GATES TO YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK AND 7 MILES FROM THE HISTORICAL TOWN OF GROVELAND. EVEN LESS MILES TO THE PINE MOUNTAIN LAKE GOLF COURSE. THE SURROUNDING AREAS HAVE BEAUTIFUL TREES, MOUNTAINS, LAKES AND JUST ALL AROUND OUTDOOR FUN! CHECK IT OUT!!!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Tags

• 7 MILES FROM GROVELAND
• PINE MOUNTAIN LAKE GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 274 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $189k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 274 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.98%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,742
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -9.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,964
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $15,964
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,098/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$206
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,731

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $206 · $2,472/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 274 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 273 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 272 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 271 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 268 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 267 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 510-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 258 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 257 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 256 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 255 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 254 DOM
18. 2026-03-13
    price $189,000 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    LOTS OF BRIGHT AND CHEERFUL SUNLIGHT BEAMS THRU THIS 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME, PLUS A 2 CAR GARAGE. LOCATED IN A GREAT COMMUNITY KNOWN AS YOSEMITE VISTA ESTATES A 55 AND OLDER DEVELOPEMENT. IT IS ALSO ONLY APPROX. 20 MI. FROM THE GATES TO YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK AND 7 MILES FROM THE HISTORICAL TOWN OF GROVELAND. EVEN LESS MILES TO THE PINE MOUNTAIN LAKE GOLF COURSE. THE SURROUNDING AREAS HAVE BEAUTIFUL TREES, MOUNTAINS, LAKES AND JUST ALL AROUND OUTDOOR FUN! CHECK IT OUT!!!

19. 2025-12-08
    price $199,000 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    LOTS OF BRIGHT AND CHEERFUL SUNLIGHT BEAMS THRU THIS 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME, PLUS A 2 CAR GARAGE. LOCATED IN A GREAT COMMUNITY KNOWN AS YOSEMITE VISTA ESTATES A 55 AND OLDER DEVELOPEMENT. IT IS ALSO ONLY APPROX. 20 MI. FROM THE GATES TO YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK AND 7 MILES FROM THE HISTORICAL TOWN OF GROVELAND. EVEN LESS MILES TO THE PINE MOUNTAIN LAKE GOLF COURSE. THE SURROUNDING AREAS HAVE BEAUTIFUL TREES, MOUNTAINS, LAKES AND JUST ALL AROUND OUTDOOR FUN! CHECK IT OUT!!!

20. 2025-09-19
    listed $210,000 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    LOTS OF BRIGHT AND CHEERFUL SUNLIGHT BEAMS THRU THIS 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME, PLUS A 2 CAR GARAGE. LOCATED IN A GREAT COMMUNITY KNOWN AS YOSEMITE VISTA ESTATES A 55 AND OLDER DEVELOPEMENT. IT IS ALSO ONLY APPROX. 20 MI. FROM THE GATES TO YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK AND 7 MILES FROM THE HISTORICAL TOWN OF GROVELAND. EVEN LESS MILES TO THE PINE MOUNTAIN LAKE GOLF COURSE. THE SURROUNDING AREAS HAVE BEAUTIFUL TREES, MOUNTAINS, LAKES AND JUST ALL AROUND OUTDOOR FUN! CHECK IT OUT!!!

21. 2015-01-13
    soldstatus $77,000 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    BETTER THAN NEW & NEVER LIVED IN- This Quality Silvercrest Manufactured Home has been improved with a new upgraded kitchen-- eye-pleasing "cherry" toned cabinets and solid slab granite counter tops. The open plan has vaulted ceilings and is designed for comfortable living and features a large living room, the modern kitchen & breakfast bar adjoining the dining room...exit through a slider and onto the rear patio for outdoor gatherings. The attached 2 car garage is finished with built-in cabinetry and has direct access from the kitchen. This beauty is situated on a level lot with a partially fenced back yard, a grassy area and mature oak tree. Situated in Yosemite Vista Estates--an "over 55" Senior Community-- located in the foothill of the Sierra just 23 miles from the entrance to Yosemite National Park. Neighborhood amenities include a clubhouse with kitchen, outdoor areas and a private community swimming pool.

22. 2015-01-13
    soldstatus $77,000

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    BETTER THAN NEW & NEVER LIVED IN- This Quality Silvercrest Manufactured Home has been improved with a new upgraded kitchen-- eye-pleasing "cherry" toned cabinets and solid slab granite counter tops. The open plan has vaulted ceilings and is designed for comfortable living and features a large living room, the modern kitchen & breakfast bar adjoining the dining room...exit through a slider and onto the rear patio for outdoor gatherings. The attached 2 car garage is finished with built-in cabinetry and has direct access from the kitchen. This beauty is situated on a level lot with a partially fenced back yard, a grassy area and mature oak tree. Situated in Yosemite Vista Estates--an "over 55" Senior Community-- located in the foothill of the Sierra just 23 miles from the entrance to Yosemite National Park. Neighborhood amenities include a clubhouse with kitchen, outdoor areas and a private community swimming pool.

23. 2014-12-01
    listed $79,000 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    BETTER THAN NEW & NEVER LIVED IN- This Quality Silvercrest Manufactured Home has been improved with a new upgraded kitchen-- eye-pleasing "cherry" toned cabinets and solid slab granite counter tops. The open plan has vaulted ceilings and is designed for comfortable living and features a large living room, the modern kitchen & breakfast bar adjoining the dining room...exit through a slider and onto the rear patio for outdoor gatherings. The attached 2 car garage is finished with built-in cabinetry and has direct access from the kitchen. This beauty is situated on a level lot with a partially fenced back yard, a grassy area and mature oak tree. Situated in Yosemite Vista Estates--an "over 55" Senior Community-- located in the foothill of the Sierra just 23 miles from the entrance to Yosemite National Park. Neighborhood amenities include a clubhouse with kitchen, outdoor areas and a private community swimming pool.

24. 2006-02-03
    soldstatus $100,000
25. 2002-07-16
    soldstatus $11,500
26. 2000-01-28
    soldstatus $255,000
27. 1999-12-27
    soldstatus $255,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,098 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,436 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$339/yr (+$28/mo · 30.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥95°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,098
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − HOA: −$2,472
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$185
• After-tax cash flow: $3,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-25.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $189,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $199,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-19 Listed $210,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-13 Sold (MLS) $77,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-12-01 Listed $79,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2006-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records
• 2000-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,098 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.