268 N Burke St · Goliad, TX 77963

$54,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1965 8,494 sqft lot $34/sqft · 73% below area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a fixer-upper with great potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value, this property offers a solid layout and endless possibilities. With some TLC and the right updates this property could truly shine. Bring your vision and transform this home into a great investment or future residence.

Key facts

• 8,494 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $626 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 2.1% in Goliad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#348 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Goliad ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #370 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Goliad County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Goliad County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.89%
• DSCR: 3.18
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,750
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -72.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 Bego St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,700 (+4%)	0mo	$195,500	$115	80
2892 W FM 884	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-9%)	2mo	$274,500	$184	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $31,009
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $78,441
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77963

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $824/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $480

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-04
   price $54,900 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a fixer-upper with great potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value, this property offers a solid layout and endless possibilities. With some TLC and the right updates this property could truly shine. Bring your vision and transform this home into a great investment or future residence.

2. 2026-04-11
   price $55,000 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a fixer-upper with great potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value, this property offers a solid layout and endless possibilities. With some TLC and the right updates this property could truly shine. Bring your vision and transform this home into a great investment or future residence.

3. 2026-04-08
   price $60,000 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a fixer-upper with great potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value, this property offers a solid layout and endless possibilities. With some TLC and the right updates this property could truly shine. Bring your vision and transform this home into a great investment or future residence.

4. 2026-03-26
   price $61,500 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a fixer-upper with great potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value, this property offers a solid layout and endless possibilities. With some TLC and the right updates this property could truly shine. Bring your vision and transform this home into a great investment or future residence.

5. 2026-03-11
   price $62,000 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a fixer-upper with great potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value, this property offers a solid layout and endless possibilities. With some TLC and the right updates this property could truly shine. Bring your vision and transform this home into a great investment or future residence.

6. 2026-03-05
   price $63,500 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a fixer-upper with great potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value, this property offers a solid layout and endless possibilities. With some TLC and the right updates this property could truly shine. Bring your vision and transform this home into a great investment or future residence.

7. 2026-02-20
   status Active 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a fixer-upper with great potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value, this property offers a solid layout and endless possibilities. With some TLC and the right updates this property could truly shine. Bring your vision and transform this home into a great investment or future residence.

8. 2026-02-10
   historical Active Under Contract 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a fixer-upper with great potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value, this property offers a solid layout and endless possibilities. With some TLC and the right updates this property could truly shine. Bring your vision and transform this home into a great investment or future residence.

9. 2026-01-20
   listed $65,000 Active 350-char remark

   Show marketing remark (350 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a fixer-upper with great potential. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value, this property offers a solid layout and endless possibilities. With some TLC and the right updates this property could truly shine. Bring your vision and transform this home into a great investment or future residence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$824
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
• − Management: −$1,222
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $7,061
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,695
• After-tax cash flow: $5,820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goliad ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821030
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,198
• Composite: 35.12/100
• National rank: #5015
• State rank: #370 of 826 in TX

Livability — Goliad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #7645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goliad, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,109

Population outlook (Goliad County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,337 people
• By 2030: 8,754 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 9,581 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 10,448 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 12,946 · +55.3%
• By 2100: 14,392 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 17% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Goliad

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.5% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.7pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+33.8 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.59%
• Current HPI: 185.8947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $54,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $55,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $60,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $61,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $62,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $63,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-02-10 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $65,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,160 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.