11 Michael Pl · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$24,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 5,220 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for that summer project? Here it is. Turn this 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home into the perfect summer project. Located on a dead-end street close to all amenities. OFFER DEADLINE IS MONDAY, JUNE 15TH AT 9:00 AM.

Key facts

• Dead-end street
• 5,220 sq ft lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• DEAD-END STREET
• CLOSE TO ALL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Resale condition; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Existing/previously built (year not specified)
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 30 x 174

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms including living areas and laundry
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Heating present
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $770 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Cap rate 43.4% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $24,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 132.50%
• DSCR: 6.90
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Cherry Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	2mo	$227,000	$210	76
24 Peach St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,015 (-2%)	10mo	$170,000	$167	75
29 Orange Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	976 (-6%)	5mo	$71,000	$73	74
12 Krakow St	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+2%)	14mo	$169,900	$161	69
23 Grape Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+8%)	10mo	$70,000	$63	67
49 Nelson Pl	0.20mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	2mo	$208,000	$181	66
32 Home Pl	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (-2%)	11mo	$60,000	$59	63
6 Krakow St	0.31mi	3/1.0	912 (-12%)	3mo	$195,000	$214	63
94 Kirby Ave	0.41mi	4/1.0 (+1)	962 (-8%)	17mo	$110,000	$114	49
28 Currant Ave	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,150 (+11%)	21mo	$214,000	$186	41
13 Modern Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,108 (+6%)	21mo	$255,000	$230	39
35 Modern Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+8%)	21mo	$150,000	$134	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.46×
• Total profit: $45,055
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.72×
• Total profit: $102,609
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,156/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $770

Break-even live

Break-even rent $300

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40 Vincent Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1075	$875	$0.81	24d	1	0.97mi
133 Orchard Pl Lackawanna, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,855	$2.65	2d	12	0.97mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 215-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $24,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,156 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,156 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$1,156
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $9,451
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,268
• After-tax cash flow: $6,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• City population: 440,021
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+24.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $24,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $24,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-12 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-07-28 Listed $52,997 WNYREIS
• 1997-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,156 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.