15226 Valdosta Rd · Shady Hills, FL 34610

$260,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1964 0.30 ac lot Est $301k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, plotted on 1.07 acres. Built-in shelving in living room, separate laundry area with washer/dryer hook-up. Eat-in kitchen, lots of cabinet space and converted carport. Ask your agent for more details!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Renovated
• New cabinets

Tags

• TURN KEY
• RENOVATED
• HUGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; West-facing entry
• Construction: Block, concrete, stucco, and wood siding construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.3-acre lot (approx. 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $260k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,748 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,002
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15304 Pasco Lake Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,462 (+10%)	6mo	$262,000	$179	66
15330 Valdosta Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+12%)	9mo	$338,000	$227	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-49,575
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-52,874
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34610

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,977 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,479/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,125

Max offer price $239,471

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $260,000 Pending 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $260,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $260,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $260,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $260,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-04-09
    listed $260,000 Active
12. 2024-05-20
    soldstatus $165,000
13. 2015-03-26
    soldstatus $27,500 Sold 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, plotted on 1.07 acres. Built-in shelving in living room, separate laundry area with washer/dryer hook-up. Eat-in kitchen, lots of cabinet space and converted carport. Ask your agent for more details!

14. 2015-03-16
    status Pending 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, plotted on 1.07 acres. Built-in shelving in living room, separate laundry area with washer/dryer hook-up. Eat-in kitchen, lots of cabinet space and converted carport. Ask your agent for more details!

15. 2015-02-09
    price $36,200 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, plotted on 1.07 acres. Built-in shelving in living room, separate laundry area with washer/dryer hook-up. Eat-in kitchen, lots of cabinet space and converted carport. Ask your agent for more details!

16. 2015-02-09
    price $41,000 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, plotted on 1.07 acres. Built-in shelving in living room, separate laundry area with washer/dryer hook-up. Eat-in kitchen, lots of cabinet space and converted carport. Ask your agent for more details!

17. 2015-01-16
    listed $41,000 Active 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home, plotted on 1.07 acres. Built-in shelving in living room, separate laundry area with washer/dryer hook-up. Eat-in kitchen, lots of cabinet space and converted carport. Ask your agent for more details!

18. 2009-02-13
    listed $149,900
19. 2008-08-10
    listed $149,900
20. 2005-08-22
    soldstatus $125,000
21. 1996-09-13
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,479 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,479 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,479
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,898
• − Management: −$1,898
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$5,974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,434
• After-tax cash flow: $39/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,544

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.13%
• Current HPI: 342.8714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-26 Sold (MLS) $27,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-09 Price Changed $41,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-09 Price Changed $36,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-16 Listed $41,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-13 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-10 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1996-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,479 · +36.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.