5855 Palm Ln Unit B21 · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 966 sqft · Condo public records · 254 Days on market

Built 1970 $355/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This quaint and well maintained 2 bedroom 2 bathroom end unit sits at the end of the street so no street noises to be heard here. The spacious kitchen has plenty of counters and cabinets for the person who enjoys cooking. The view out the back from the patio is perfect for someone who enjoys a quiet nature type of view, enjoy the outside with your morning cup of coffee or a evening meal. Some of the updates include LED lighting, newer flooring, and nice washer and dryer area, and the HVAC System and water heater are just a few years old. The Third Bayshore Condominiums is a great place to call home with friendly neighbors and so many activities in the clubhouse. Don't hesitate to own in a c

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• Led lighting
• End unit

Tags

• END UNIT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• QUIET NATURE VIEW
• LED LIGHTING
• NEWER FLOORING
• WASHER AND DRYER AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished unit; Third-party listing; Living area ~966 sq ft (public records)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee: $355 (includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, reserves, grounds maintenance, general maintenance, management, pest control, private road, trash); Association amenities: Clubhouse, elevators, laundry, pool, shuffleboard court; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Buyer approval required; Total annual fees: $4,260

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; West-facing; 3 total stories (unit on 2nd floor); Building B
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with gunite in-ground heated pool and spa
• Exterior features: Enclosed rear porch; Balcony; Outdoor grill; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (Unit on 2nd floor)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living/dining room combo; Thermostat; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (inside unit)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, employment F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bayshore Elementary School (math 51% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 701 students, 72% FRL); Electa Lee Magnet Middle School (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 759 students, 68% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $99k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.44%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-11,857
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-14,723
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $439/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$355
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $154	+0% $126	+5% $98	+10% $70
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $72	+0% $126	+5% $179	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $151	base $126	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5896 Palm Ln Unit C27 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$1,400	$1.45	25d	1	0.01mi
5955 Palm Ln Unit A33 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	16d	1	0.01mi
5858 Welcome Rd Unit J23 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	5d	1	0.05mi
2028 Canal Dr Unit M26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,050	$1.82	12d	1	0.05mi
1874 Sunny Dr Unit F32 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$950	$1.28	25d	1	0.05mi
1875 Sunny Dr Unit G32 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	25d	1	0.08mi
1859 Restful Dr Unit L26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,150	$2.00	25d	1	0.10mi
5820 21st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,995	$1.79	5d	1	0.13mi
5906 Garden Ln Unit A22 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,200	$1.43	5d	1	0.13mi
1825 Flamingo Blvd Unit O26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	25d	1	0.14mi
1839 Sunny Dr Unit E36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,350	$2.34	25d	1	0.14mi
1807 Restful Dr Unit N4 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	5d	1	0.15mi
5888 17th St W Unit C23 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	25d	1	0.16mi
5908 17th St W Unit C36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	17d	1	0.19mi
2547 60th Ave W Unit L-36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	17d	1	0.20mi
2423 60th Ave W Unit K29 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,495	$1.46	25d	1	0.20mi
6043 Coral Way Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	865	$1,700	$1.97	17d	1	0.22mi
1566 Pleasant Rd Unit J24 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	25d	1	0.24mi
5996 Hibiscus Dr #6 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	865	$1,550	$1.79	17d	1	0.34mi
2713 60th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,000	$1.86	25d	1	0.47mi
5513 18th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	25d	1	0.47mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	5d	1	0.53mi
1007 57th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	967	$1,495	$1.55	12d	1	0.66mi
1009 W 63rd AVE Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	815	$1,495	$1.83	17d	1	0.70mi
6033 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	942	$1,625	$1.73	4d	2	0.82mi
6033 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	942	$1,550	$1.64	5d	3	0.82mi
6033 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	996	$1,500	$1.51	25d	2	0.82mi
5400 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,651	$1.83	25d	1	0.83mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	13d	5	0.84mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,550	$1.96	21d	5	0.84mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	5d	4	0.84mi
5580 Fountain Lake Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$1,908	$1.81	3d	38	0.91mi
6050 34th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	734	$1,610	$2.19	3d	19	0.91mi
5502 8th Street Ct W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,595	$1.78	25d	1	0.92mi
512 60th Avenue Ter W Unit 512 Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.5	972	$1,900	$1.95	12d	1	0.92mi
3851 59th Ave W Unit 3851 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,500	$1.64	25d	1	0.94mi
3843 59th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	25d	1	0.94mi
3848 59th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	25d	1	0.95mi
605 64th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,250	$1.59	13d	1	1.00mi
3304 McDill Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,695	$1.62	13d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $355 · $4,260/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $99,000 Active 254 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $99,000 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 243 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 242 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 241 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 240 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 233 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    status Active
17. 2026-04-07
    historical
18. 2026-03-30
    price $115,000
19. 2026-03-04
    price $139,000
20. 2025-10-08
    listed $149,900 Active
21. 2025-08-07
    historical
22. 2025-03-28
    price $144,500
23. 2025-02-07
    listed $149,500 Active
24. 2002-03-18
    soldstatus $49,500
25. 1994-05-03
    soldstatus $37,900
26. 1990-01-05
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $439 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$383/yr (+$32/mo · 87.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$439
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − HOA: −$4,260
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$31
• After-tax cash flow: $1,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayshore Gardens, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+238.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $144,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-07 Listed $149,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 1994-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $37,900 Public Records
• 1990-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $439 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.