402 Carefree Cir · Aberdeen, WA 98520

$82,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1975 Est $82k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled manufactured home in the desirable Leisure Manor MHP! This move-in ready home has been completely updated from top to bottom, featuring durable luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring throughout for a modern, cohesive look. Major system upgrades include updated electrical and plumbing, double-pane windows for energy efficiency and comfort, and updated appliances that make everyday living easy. The spacious, well-designed layout offers an effortless flow between rooms, creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere. Enjoy a versatile den/office area—perfect for working from home or creating a cozy retreat—along with a dedicated utility room for added convenience. The

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Updated electrical
• Den office area

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• DEN OFFICE AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Land-lease community (Leisure Manor MHP); park approved for sale; Land lease amount $775/month

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Storage in carport
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Electric water heater; Community water (City of Aberdeen); Sewer: City of Aberdeen; Power: GH PUD; Cable: DirecTV
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; North facing; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Wood construction; Metal roof; Tie-down foundation; Manufacturer: 75 PEERLESS 56 x 24, Model M05095
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Paved lot; Has a view; Park amenities: clubhouse, common area, recreational area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Water heater (located in hall bathroom); Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $772 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 4.1% in Aberdeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#73 in WA, #1,320 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D-, employment F.
• Aberdeen School District (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #222 of 291 in WA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stevens Elementary School (345 students, 89% FRL); Miller Junior High (718 students, 68% FRL); J M Weatherwax High School (916 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $77,080 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.35%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,984
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
402 Carefree Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$82,000	$61	99
511 Leisure Cir	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	10mo	$52,000	$39	86
58 Meander Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	11mo	$95,000	$68	78
513 Leisure Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$58,000	$40	74
600 Leisure Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	19mo	$68,500	$48	67
1212 S Evans St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	23mo	$304,784	$235	59
1504 S Evans St	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,142 (-15%)	10mo	$175,000	$153	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $38,093
• Equity at exit: $12,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $105,820
• Equity at exit: $7,090

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98520

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,617 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $499/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $640

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $818	-5% $795	+0% $772	+5% $749	+10% $726
Rent	-10% $644	-5% $708	+0% $772	+5% $836	+10% $900
Rate	-1.0pp $813	-0.5pp $793	base $772	+0.5pp $751	+1.0pp $729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 W Curtis St Aberdeen, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	45d	1	0.64mi
1731 S Boone St Unit 303 Aberdeen, WA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	45d	1	0.80mi
810 Dewitt Dr Unit 810 Cosmopolis, WA	3.0	1.0	1656	$1,895	$1.14	45d	1	1.23mi
908 E 1st St Aberdeen, WA	3.0	1.0	1608	$2,100	$1.31	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   status Active
3. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-14
   status Active
5. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-30
   price $82,000
7. 2026-02-19
   listed $85,000 Active
8. 2024-12-27
   soldstatus $64,000 Closed
9. 2024-11-18
   status Pending
10. 2024-10-22
    price $63,000
11. 2024-10-06
    listed $65,000 Active
12. 2002-11-01
    soldstatus $14,711
13. 2002-09-06
    listed $14,711

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $499 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $804 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 60.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$499
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $8,416
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,020
• After-tax cash flow: $7,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aberdeen School District
• NCES district ID: 5300030
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,896
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #9477
• State rank: #222 of 291 in WA

Livability — Aberdeen

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #1320

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aberdeen, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 24,888
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,888
• Household income: $58,153
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 635.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.75%
• Current HPI: 207.7393
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+457.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $82,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-27 Sold (MLS) $64,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-18 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $63,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-06 Listed $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-01 Sold (MLS) $14,711 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-09-06 Listed $14,711 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $499 · +25.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.