22607 Nebula Way · Connerton, FL 34637

$401,400

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $440k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home divides space for optimal tranquility. The first floor showcases an open design that encompasses the dining room, kitchen and living room for simplified family living and entertaining. Nearby, the owner's suite is separate from the upstairs bedrooms and features a private bathroom. The second level hosts four additional bedrooms and a versatile loft.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $395,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (spec-built)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2389; Address: 22607 Nebula Way, Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec home, Columbia plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $401k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $398k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $398k (0.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $397,950 (0.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.95%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $439,576
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22312 Pleasant Morning Dr	0.26mi	5/2.5	2,389 (0%)	1mo	$439,000	$184	87
7852 Painted Sky Pl	0.41mi	5/2.5	2,389 (0%)	1mo	$390,900	$164	80
22321 Nebula Way	0.24mi	5/2.5	2,389 (0%)	20mo	$439,900	$184	72
8521 Ehren Cutoff	0.41mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,290 (-4%)	2mo	$657,000	$287	65
22318 Blazing Star Run	0.24mi	5/2.5	2,215 (-7%)	20mo	$394,900	$178	60
8303 Painted Sky Pl	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+3%)	20mo	$534,900	$218	55
22342 Blazing Star Run	0.22mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (+8%)	19mo	$444,900	$172	54
22337 Nebula Way	0.23mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (+8%)	19mo	$464,600	$180	53
22326 Blazing Star Run	0.23mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (+8%)	20mo	$432,900	$168	52
22297 Nebula Way	0.27mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (+8%)	20mo	$449,900	$174	51
8747 Flourish Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,529 (+6%)	10mo	$465,000	$184	44
8144 Mallow Mirror Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,313 (-3%)	18mo	$590,000	$255	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-16,265
• Equity at exit: $86,622

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $39,396
• Equity at exit: $82,470

Cash invested: $112,392 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,105
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$502 /mo · $6,021/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$836
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,511

Max offer price $401,400

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,350
• Closing costs: $12,042
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	18d	1	0.27mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,700	$1.44	24d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $401,400 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $401,400 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $401,400 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $401,400 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $399,400 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $396,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $396,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $396,900 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 372-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $395,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,485
• − Property taxes: −$6,021
• − Insurance: −$2,007
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,820
• − Management: −$3,820
• − Depreciation: −$11,677
• Taxable loss: −$2,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$498
• After-tax cash flow: $4,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It has a good resale and rental value with minor updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental experience and attract tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental experience and attract tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B