22607 Nebula Way · Connerton, FL 34637

$383,490

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $161/sqft · 8% below area Est $416k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home divides space for optimal tranquility. The first floor showcases an open design that encompasses the dining room, kitchen and living room for simplified family living and entertaining. Nearby, the owner's suite is separate from the upstairs bedrooms and features a private bathroom. The second level hosts four additional bedrooms and a versatile loft.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 99 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $383k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-929/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $372k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($349k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $325,667 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,522
• List price: $383,490
• Delta: -7.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22312 Pleasant Morning Dr	0.26mi	5/2.5	2,389 (0%)	4mo	$439,000	$184	82
7664 Painted Sky Pl	0.32mi	5/2.5	2,389 (0%)	2mo	$404,400	$169	81
8228 Painted Sky Pl	0.33mi	5/2.5	2,389 (0%)	6mo	$406,000	$170	78
7852 Painted Sky Pl	0.41mi	5/2.5	2,389 (0%)	4mo	$390,900	$164	76
8521 Ehren Cutoff	0.41mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,290 (-4%)	5mo	$657,000	$287	65
7610 Painted Sky Pl	0.30mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (+8%)	1mo	$415,400	$161	63
8304 Painted Sky Pl	0.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+3%)	10mo	$480,000	$196	63
7690 Painted Sky Pl	0.33mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (+8%)	2mo	$404,900	$157	61
21827 Billowy Jaunt Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,408 (+1%)	2mo	$590,000	$245	54
21987 Emory Oak Pl	0.64mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,543 (+6%)	5mo	$515,000	$203	46
8747 Flourish Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,529 (+6%)	13mo	$465,000	$184	40
9205 Shadyside Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,061 (-14%)	4mo	$417,000	$202	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-42,983
• Equity at exit: $82,757

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-21,620
• Equity at exit: $78,791

Cash invested: $107,377 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 66 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.9 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $404,650 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 27 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,011
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$479 /mo · $5,752/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,355

Max offer price $372,284

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $55	+0% $-77	+5% $-210	+10% $-342
Rent	-10% $-335	-5% $-206	+0% $-77	+5% $51	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $20	base $-77	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,872
• Closing costs: $11,505
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22430 Blazing Star Run Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	40d	1	0.16mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,450	$1.31	75d	1	0.27mi
22164 Calisto Way Land O Lakes, FL	6.0	3.0	3092	$3,500	$1.13	32d	1	0.44mi
21816 Crest Meadow Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2061	$3,200	$1.55	64d	1	0.85mi
21648 Southern Charm Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.0	2560	$3,000	$1.17	40d	1	0.91mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	77d	1	1.14mi
21286 Wistful Yearn Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.5	2492	$3,600	$1.44	7d	1	1.25mi
8692 Little Bluestem Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2640	$3,400	$1.29	94d	1	1.30mi
7847 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1807	$2,131	$1.18	44d	1	1.46mi
7843 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,050	$1.03	10d	1	1.46mi
7843 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,050	$1.03	0d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $395,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (spec-built)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2389Address: 22607 Nebula Way, Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec home, Columbia plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-13
   days on market $383,490 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-09-12
   days on market $383,490 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-09-11
   pricedays on market $383,490 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-09-05
   days on market $382,990 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-09-04
   days on market $382,990 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-09-03
   days on market $382,990 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-08-31
   pricedays on market $382,990 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-08-30
   days on market $382,490 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-08-29
   days on market $382,490 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-08-28
    days on market $382,490 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-08-26
    days on market $382,490 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-08-25
    price $382,490 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-08-25
    days on market $395,400 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-08-24
    days on market $395,400 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-08-23
    days on market $395,400 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-08-22
    days on market $395,400 Active 77 DOM
17. 2026-08-20
    days on market $395,400 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-08-19
    days on market $395,400 Active 74 DOM
19. 2026-08-18
    days on market $395,400 Active 73 DOM
20. 2026-08-17
    days on market $395,400 Active 72 DOM
21. 2026-08-16
    days on market $395,400 Active 71 DOM
22. 2026-08-15
    days on market $395,400 Active 70 DOM
23. 2026-08-15
    price $395,400 Active 69 DOM
24. 2026-08-14
    days on market $394,900 Active 69 DOM
25. 2026-08-13
    days on market $394,900 Active 68 DOM
26. 2026-08-12
    days on market $394,900 Active 67 DOM
27. 2026-08-11
    days on market $394,900 Active 66 DOM
28. 2026-08-10
    days on market $394,900 Active 65 DOM
29. 2026-08-09
    days on market $394,900 Active 64 DOM
30. 2026-08-08
    days on market $394,900 Active 63 DOM
31. 2026-08-06
    days on market $394,900 Active 61 DOM
32. 2026-08-05
    price $394,900 Active 60 DOM
33. 2026-08-05
    days on market $394,400 Active 60 DOM
34. 2026-08-04
    days on market $394,400 Active 59 DOM
35. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $394,400 Active 58 DOM
36. 2026-08-01
    price $391,400 Active 55 DOM
37. 2026-07-31
    pricedays on market $390,900 Active 55 DOM
38. 2026-07-30
    days on market $389,900 Active 53 DOM
39. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $389,900 Active 52 DOM
40. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $388,900 Active 50 DOM
41. 2026-07-24
    days on market $388,400 Active 48 DOM
42. 2026-07-23
    days on market $388,400 Active 47 DOM
43. 2026-07-22
    days on market $388,400 Active 46 DOM
44. 2026-07-21
    pricedays on market $388,400 Active 45 DOM
45. 2026-07-20
    pricedays on market $387,900 Active 44 DOM
46. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $387,400 Active 41 DOM
47. 2026-07-16
    days on market $384,400 Active 40 DOM
48. 2026-07-15
    days on market $384,400 Active 39 DOM
49. 2026-07-13
    days on market $384,400 Active 37 DOM
50. 2026-07-13
    days on market $384,400 Active 36 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,481
• − Property taxes: −$5,752
• − Insurance: −$1,917
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,126
• − Management: −$3,126
• − Depreciation: −$11,156
• Taxable loss: −$7,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,795
• After-tax cash flow: $866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,945–$35,835 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It has a good resale and rental value with minor updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental experience and attract tenants ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Connerton Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Pine View Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Land O' Lakes High School C+ FL #106/667 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $395,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (spec-built)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2389Address: 22607 Nebula Way, Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec home, Columbia plan