6426 Bay Cedar Ln #101 · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34203

$229,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Condo · 234 Days on market

Built 2004 $428/mo HOA · 17% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Bask in the beauty of serene living on Bay Cedar Lane in Tara. This exceptional 2 bedroom, 2 bath, garage condo offers a water view that transforms every moment into a tranquil escape. Imagine waking up to the gentle sounds of nature and enjoying your morning coffee on your screened in lanai. The open concept design of this condo maximizes your living area, creating a spacious and inviting atmosphere. Natural light floods the room. Whether you're hosting a small gathering or enjoying a quiet evening in, this condo provides the perfect backdrop for any occasion. Located in a vibrant community, you'll have

Key facts

• Open concept design
• Local amenities
• Water view

Tags

• WATER VIEW
• SCREENED IN LANAI
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• RECREATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, sidewalks; Location directions: 70 west towards Bradenton, left onto Tara Blvd, right into Cypress Strand to Bay Cedar
• Financial info: Other annual assessment amount reported; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; association approval required; Quarterly condo fees (approx. $1,020 quarterly / $340 monthly); Total annual fees reported $5,136; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, golf, recreation facilities, cable TV, internet, maintenance of grounds; No truck/RV/motorcycle parking in community; Pet policy allows cats and dogs with breed restrictions and a maximum pet weight of 25 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space); Guest parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; BB/HS Internet available; Electricity available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Attached property; One story; Faces northeast
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a larger building (building number 6426)
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed and screened porch/rear porch; Patio/porch; Sidewalk; Tennis court(s); Irrigation equipment; Trees and landscaped grounds; Private lot setting; Paved roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-336/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (1.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tara Elementary School (math 79% / reading 66%, grade A, #281 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 559 students, 52% FRL); Braden River Middle School (math 54% / reading 47%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 810 students, 58% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-45,947
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-69,508
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34203

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$428
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,545

Max offer price $224,944

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $51	+0% $-28	+5% $-107	+10% $-186
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-127	+0% $-28	+5% $71	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $30	base $-28	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6351 Bay Cedar Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,100	$1.59	25d	1	0.03mi
6421 Bay Cedar Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,100	$1.54	25d	1	0.05mi
7037 Scrub Jay Way Unit 7037 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,000	$1.52	25d	1	0.05mi
7189 Strand Cir Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,300	$1.68	25d	1	0.12mi
6372 Rookery Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$4,300	$2.32	25d	1	0.18mi
7224 Cedar Hollow Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1406	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	0.21mi
7138 Cedar Hollow Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1406	$2,000	$1.42	17d	1	0.27mi
7279 Cedar Hollow Cir Unit Available Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1352	$3,500	$2.59	25d	1	0.29mi
6642 Tailfeather Way Unit Available Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	25d	1	0.51mi
6251 Wingspan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,300	$1.53	25d	1	0.56mi
6738 Peach Tree Creek Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1838	$6,200	$3.37	25d	1	0.57mi
7269 Fountain Palm Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,300	$1.42	25d	1	0.73mi
6055 Wingspan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,500	$1.52	25d	1	0.78mi
6437 Brook Village Cv Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,958	$1.73	3d	13	0.79mi
5808 Nesters Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1645	$5,000	$3.04	25d	1	0.83mi
8110 Misty Wood Ave Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,890	$1.74	3d	18	0.84mi
6718 Virginia Xing University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1721	$5,250	$3.05	25d	1	0.92mi
5939 Sandstone Ave Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1732	$2,900	$1.67	21d	1	1.03mi
6713 Stone River Rd #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$1,900	$1.54	25d	1	1.11mi
6807 Stone River Rd #202 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,500	$2.71	17d	1	1.14mi
6872 Fairview Ter #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1352	$2,000	$1.48	25d	1	1.22mi
6870 Fairview Ter #6870 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,200	$1.63	17d	1	1.23mi
6501 Stone River Rd Unit Available Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$2,200	$1.97	25d	1	1.27mi
6501 Stone River Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,820	$2.61	17d	2	1.27mi
6505 Stone River Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,825	$2.62	17d	3	1.30mi
6758 Fairview Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,300	$1.71	25d	1	1.33mi
5515 Fair Oaks St Unit 5515 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,000	$1.99	25d	1	1.33mi
7186 Lakeside Dr Sarasota, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,750	$1.81	17d	1	1.38mi
5414 Fair Oaks St Unit 10-D Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1004	$1,995	$1.99	5d	1	1.40mi
5905 Doral Dr Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1298	$2,400	$1.85	25d	1	1.40mi
6503 Fairway Gardens Dr Unit Available Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,200	$1.63	25d	1	1.45mi
7341 Black Walnut Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,300	$2.09	25d	1	1.48mi
5761 Avista Dr Unit 5761 Sarasota, FL	2.0	2.0	1284	$4,000	$3.12	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $428 · $5,136/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $229,000
3. 2025-09-15
   listed $259,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,409
• − Management: −$2,409
• − HOA: −$5,136
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$3,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$938
• After-tax cash flow: $602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,618
• Household income: $70,761
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1469.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.87%
• Current HPI: 295.8871
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Listed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid