6319 Hilltop Ave Unit A & B · Lower Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$635,000

6 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,720 sqft · Townhouse · 54 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition 5,662 sqft lot $233/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully renovated duplex that has generated $107,000 in the past 12 months, just minutes from the beach, offering the perfect blend of lifestyle and investment potential. Located in a highly desirable area, you can walk or golf cart to the white sands & turquoise water beaches, coffee shops, restaurants, and local retail. Just 0.3 miles to a public boat ramp, making it perfect for enjoying both the Gulf and the bay. Each side features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, an open-concept layout, and durable LVP flooring throughout. Both primary suites include spacious private balconies overlooking the fenced backyard, creating an ideal indoor-outdoor retreat.

Key facts

• Private balconies
• Public boat ramp
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED DUPLEX
• MINUTES FROM THE BEACH
• WALK OR GOLF CART TO BEACHES
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP
• PRIVATE BALCONIES
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.0-bath townhouse listed at $635k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (55.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (52.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (55.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 0.9% in Lower Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#518 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patronis Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 648 students, 42% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1176 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,041/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 16% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($616k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,896 (55.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.40%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 17.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,526,751
• List price: $635,000
• Delta: -58.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6315 Hilltop Ave	0.01mi	6/5.0	2,720 (0%)	1mo	$540,000	$199	99
6324 Sunset Ave	0.08mi	7/4.5 (+1)	2,800 (+3%)	2mo	$1,190,000	$425	83
6431 S Lagoon Dr	0.10mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,749 (+1%)	8mo	$960,000	$349	78
6606 Thomas Dr Unit A & B	0.29mi	6/7.0	2,560 (-6%)	1mo	$900,000	$352	68
3701 Lee St Unit A & B	0.52mi	6/4.0	2,800 (+3%)	6mo	$530,000	$189	62
7519 Sunset Ave	1.03mi	6/3.0	2,652 (-2%)	4mo	$575,000	$217	50
6221 Pinetree Ave Unit A & B	0.10mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (-23%)	15mo	$395,000	$188	40
7028 Thomas Dr	0.65mi	5/4.0 (-1)	3,048 (+12%)	2mo	$1,112,500	$365	39
8207 Surf Dr	1.39mi	6/4.5	3,032 (+12%)	10mo	$2,850,000	$940	35
5216 Beach Dr	0.93mi	5/5.0 (-1)	2,160 (-21%)	5mo	$607,500	$281	31
8015 Surf Dr Unit B	1.25mi	5/5.0 (-1)	3,076 (+13%)	10mo	$1,450,000	$471	30
113 Palm Bay Blvd	1.13mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,134 (-22%)	3mo	$575,000	$269	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -48.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-257,619
• Equity at exit: $94,681

10-year hold

• IRR: -97.2%
• Equity multiple: -1.40×
• Total profit: $-426,512
• Equity at exit: $54,903

Cash invested: $177,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $645,000 ($309/sqft)
• Median days on market: 162 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +81.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1176
• Price-to-rent: 17.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,330
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$794 /mo · $9,525/yr
• Insurance: −$265
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $-2,413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,095

Max offer price $285,896

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,974	-5% $-2,193	+0% $-2,413	+5% $-2,632	+10% $-2,851
Rent	-10% $-2,653	-5% $-2,533	+0% $-2,413	+5% $-2,292	+10% $-2,172
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,093	-0.5pp $-2,251	base $-2,413	+0.5pp $-2,577	+1.0pp $-2,745

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $158,750
• Closing costs: $19,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8013 Surf Dr Unit 1523322P Panama City Beach, FL	5.0	5.0	3078	$11,638	$3.78	70d	1	1.25mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: HOLIDAY BEACHCommunity features include beach access, boat launch, and short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric serviceSeptic tank
• Home design: Duplex2 storiesEntry level kitchen on the first floor
• Construction: Built in 1981Siding (cement/fiberboard)Composite shingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: BalconyDeck (covered)Private yardBoat launch nearbyPrivacy fencingLevel lotWithin 1/2 mile to water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first levelDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 6 bedroomsMaster bedroom on the second level
• Bathrooms: 6 bathrooms total (4 full, 2 half)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fansElectric heat controls
• Interior features: Furnished9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-02
   listed $635,000 Active 727-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 93% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,570
• − Property taxes: −$9,525
• − Insurance: −$8,294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,919
• − Management: −$2,919
• − Depreciation: −$18,473
• Taxable loss: −$41,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,890
• After-tax cash flow: $-19,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,600–$40,800 screening

This fully renovated duplex is in excellent condition, offering a perfect blend of lifestyle and investment potential. Located in a highly desirable area, it's just minutes from the beach and local amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting atmosphere ↑
• Both Upgrade to smart home technology — Improves convenience and energy efficiency, attracting buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Patronis Elementary School A- FL #345/2,144 Nat'l #3,382/41,679 Middle Surfside Middle School B FL #148/571 Nat'l #2,008/14,009 High J.r. Arnold High School D FL #204/667 Nat'l #6,282/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Lower Grand Lagoon

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #9567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision: HOLIDAY BEACHCommunity features include beach access, boat launch, and short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric serviceSeptic tank
• Home design: Duplex2 storiesEntry level kitchen on the first floor
• Construction: Built in 1981Siding (cement/fiberboard)Composite shingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: BalconyDeck (covered)Private yardBoat launch nearbyPrivacy fencingLevel lotWithin 1/2 mile to water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first levelDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 6 bedroomsMaster bedroom on the second level
• Bathrooms: 6 bathrooms total (4 full, 2 half)
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fansElectric heat controls
• Interior features: Furnished9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $635,000 ECAR