51 Bayou Dr · Port Lavaca, TX 77979

$79,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1969 0.95 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Estate Sale Opportunity! This property is being sold as part of an estate and offers excellent potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking for a project. The existing main structure is in need of major repairs and renovations, or may be best suited for demolition and redevelopment. The property also includes two storage buildings, providing additional storage space and value. Whether you're looking to renovate, rebuild, or invest, this property presents a unique opportunity with plenty of possibilities. Property is being sold as-is, and buyers are encouraged to conduct their own inspections and due diligence.

Key facts

• 0.95 acre lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 9 days

Tags

• TWO STORAGE BUILDINGS
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer; Community/Coop water
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Masonry construction; Composition shingle roof; Built year per assessor; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Asphalt road access; Property located outside city limits; Half to one acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: See remarks listed by agent; No additional built-in interior features reported

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $564 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 2.2% in Port Lavaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in TX, #3,659 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Calhoun County ISD (town): math 44% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #293 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 282 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calhoun County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.61%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $23,136
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $66,423
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77979

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $797/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $564

Break-even live

Break-even rent $650

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 625-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $79,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $797 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,446 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$649/yr (+$54/mo · 81.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$797
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,310
• − Management: −$1,310
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $5,837
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,401
• After-tax cash flow: $5,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calhoun County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812480
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,588
• Composite: 37.27/100
• National rank: #4453
• State rank: #293 of 826 in TX

Livability — Port Lavaca

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #3659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,179
• Population (ZIP): 16,179

Population outlook (Calhoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,512 people
• By 2030: 24,183 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 25,370 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 26,388 · +12.2%
• By 2075: 28,014 · +19.1%
• By 2100: 26,314 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 36% Two or more races 20% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% Chinese 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Calhoun

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 23.7% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: -20.0pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+20.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.84%
• Current HPI: 163.8892
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $79,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

-7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $797 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.