515 Ellis Ave · Ottumwa, IA 52501

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1948 6,970 sqft lot $128/sqft · 101% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offering 1,054 sq ft of comfortable living space and undeniable charm from the moment you arrive. With standout curb appeal and a warm, inviting feel, this home is move-in ready and perfect for a variety of buyers. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout that maximizes space and natural light, creating a cozy yet open atmosphere for everyday living. The home sits on a partial crawl space, offering easy access for maintenance. Step outside and fall in love with your own private backyard retreat—fully fenced and designed for both relaxation and entertainment. Enjoy evenings around the firepit area, grow your own p

Key facts

• Firepit area
• Fully fenced
• Above ground pool

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD RETREAT
• FULLY FENCED
• FIREPIT AREA
• RAISED GARDEN BEDS
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• SWING SET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached concrete garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Chain link and wood fencing; Shingle roof; Public-maintained road frontage on a city street; Lot approximately 0.16 acres (51 x 132)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.6% in Ottumwa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#91 in IA, #1,900 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
• Ottumwa Community School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #277 of 289 in IA (top 96%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Evans Middle School (math 45% / reading 53%, grade C-, #219 of 246 statewide, top 90%, 1,047 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 44 units permitted in Wapello County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wapello County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $135k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,667 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,183
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: 100.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
611 Tuttle St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-1%)	6mo	$80,000	$77	76
916 S Weller St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,070 (+2%)	6mo	$134,000	$125	72
809 Ellis Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	2mo	$73,000	$76	68
612 Clinton Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	906 (-14%)	1mo	$57,000	$63	60
927 E Mary St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	6mo	$72,000	$71	60
924 Clinton Ave. Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	912 (-14%)	0mo	$105,000	$115	59
249 S Ransom St	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,162 (+10%)	3mo	$147,000	$127	59
134 Minnesota St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,015 (-4%)	3mo	$100,000	$99	56
138 Minnesota St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,037 (-2%)	7mo	$105,000	$101	56
433 W Finley Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	950 (-10%)	6mo	$129,500	$136	50
615 S Moore St	0.63mi	3/1.0	952 (-10%)	8mo	$160,000	$168	48
519 W Finley Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,196 (+14%)	2mo	$127,500	$107	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-14,857
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,932
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52501

• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,418/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,117

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $149	+0% $110	+5% $72	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $11	-5% $61	+0% $110	+5% $160	+10% $210
Rate	-1.0pp $178	-0.5pp $145	base $110	+0.5pp $75	+1.0pp $40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
420 Minneopa Ave Unit 203 Ottumwa, IA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	45d	1	1.50mi
420 Minneopa Ave Unit 204 Ottumwa, IA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   price $135,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $139,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 28 DOM
19. 2026-05-16
    status Active 1156-char remark
20. 2026-05-10
    status Pending 1156-char remark
21. 2026-04-26
    listed $145,000 Active 1156-char remark
22. 2019-10-30
    soldstatus $46,000
23. 2007-10-17
    soldstatus $60,000
24. 2007-06-01
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,418 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,769 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$351/yr (+$29/mo · 24.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,418
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,206
• − Management: −$1,206
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$220
• After-tax cash flow: $1,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ottumwa Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1922110
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,864
• Composite: 43.46/100
• National rank: #3004
• State rank: #277 of 289 in IA

Livability — Ottumwa

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #1900

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ottumwa, IA
• Population (ZIP): 30,341

Population outlook (Wapello County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,472 people
• By 2030: 35,563 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 36,083 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 37,287 · +5.1%
• By 2075: 43,898 · +23.8%
• By 2100: 52,973 · +49.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wapello

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.0pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+23.6 2016: R+20.8 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.66%
• Current HPI: 174.6021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+382.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $135,000 IAR
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $139,900 IAR
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — IAR
• 2026-05-10 Pending — IAR
• 2026-04-26 Listed $145,000 IAR
• 2019-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,418 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.