138 E Grace St · Old Forge, PA 18518

$165,518

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 1965 6,534 sqft lot Est $219k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Quality Home in quiet neighborhood close to parks, old Forge pizza and more. this home has been waiting for it's next lucky owner. Main level offers large flexible living spaces including sun room and side porch. Generous bedrooms on second level. Park lake setting established neighborhood.

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Park lake setting
• Sun room

Tags

• CLOSE TO PARKS
• SUN ROOM
• SIDE PORCH
• PARK LAKE SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features include playground, restaurant, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Private parking pad on asphalt; 4 parking spaces (all open)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service; Cable available; Natural gas connected; Sewer and water connected, electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels; Entry present; Built in 1965 (estimated)
• Construction: Cement siding; Block foundation; Asphalt roof (see remarks); Other structures: shed(s)
• Exterior features: Private yard with garden; Back yard, landscaped and cleared; Partial fencing; Covered patio/porch (see remarks); Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one measures 10.7 x 9.1, another 14.8 x 9.1, third 10 x 7)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Steam heating; No central air
• Interior features: Paneling; Finished basement with storage in the attic
• Laundry & utility: Finished basement (utility space likely available)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $166k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 6.1% in Old Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#287 in PA, #2,531 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Old Forge SD (suburban): math 22% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #409 of 539 in PA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $160,552 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.97%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Taroli St Unit L20 22	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,350 (-1%)	2mo	$130,000	$96	79
254 Hoover St	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (+3%)	0mo	$226,000	$161	76
341 Orchard St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,250 (-8%)	0mo	$230,333	$184	71
214 Charles St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,349 (-1%)	10mo	$232,750	$173	70
337 Orchard St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+3%)	10mo	$211,500	$151	68
312 Charles St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,317 (-3%)	10mo	$210,638	$160	63
133 Corcoran St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-3%)	2mo	$260,000	$197	54
199 Marion St	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,226 (-10%)	4mo	$149,500	$122	53
602 Milwaukee Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (+3%)	5mo	$270,000	$194	53
147 2nd St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,170 (-14%)	4mo	$130,000	$111	53
610 Park St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-4%)	12mo	$223,000	$172	49
98 Rose Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-14%)	10mo	$180,000	$153	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $56,714
• Equity at exit: $95,271

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $156,065
• Equity at exit: $165,656

Cash invested: $46,345 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18518

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$868
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$207 /mo · $2,483/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,448

Max offer price $165,518

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,380
• Closing costs: $4,966
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Oak St Unit 2 Old Forge, PA	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	43d	1	0.41mi
864 S Main St #3 Old Forge, PA	2.0	1.0	965	$1,350	$1.40	13d	1	0.43mi
152 Drakes Ln Old Forge, PA	2.0	1.0	979	$1,700	$1.74	13d	1	0.44mi
304 Vine St Unit 304 Old Forge, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	0.57mi
75 Marimar Dr Old Forge, PA	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	13d	1	0.69mi
163 Bianca Way Old Forge, PA	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,500	$2.09	13d	1	0.76mi
962 Wood St Unit 2 Old Forge, PA	2.0	1.0	964	$1,250	$1.30	43d	1	1.08mi
1418 Grove St Moosic, PA	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,850	$1.02	13d	1	1.26mi
652 Marion Ln Moosic, PA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $165,518 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,518 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,518 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,518 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,518 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,518 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,518 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,518 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,518 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,518 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,518 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,518 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,518 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,518 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,518 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,518 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $165,518 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,272
• − Property taxes: −$2,483
• − Insurance: −$828
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − Depreciation: −$4,815
• Taxable income: $634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$152
• After-tax cash flow: $3,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Old Forge SD
• NCES district ID: 4218120
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $49,409
• Composite: 30.6/100
• National rank: #6196
• State rank: #409 of 539 in PA

Livability — Old Forge

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #2531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Old Forge, PA
• City population: 8,533
• Population (ZIP): 8,533

Population outlook (Lackawanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,652 people
• By 2030: 208,623 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 203,980 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 201,069 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 205,026 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 210,851 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lackawanna

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 48.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.0pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+3.4 2012: D+27.4 2008: D+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.15%
• Current HPI: 242.2839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $165,518 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+37.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $36,029 · +2663.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.