69 E Gray Owl Dr · Freeport, FL 32439

$397,846

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,107 sqft · Land · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 6,534 sqft lot $92/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 69 Gray Owl Drive E, a new home at Owls Head Farms in Freeport Florida. This home is ready for move in and features a welcoming and elegant foyer that leads into a spacious open concept living area with 9' ceilings. The kitchen features quartz countertops, Whirlpool stainless steel appliances, and an oversized island, making it the centerpiece of the home. The single basin undermount sink and the dedicated water filter faucet add to the ease in the kitchen. The dining area and great room are flooded with natural light, offering a warm and inviting atmosphere. The primary bedroom, located at the rear, includes a luxurious bathroom with dual vanities, a walk-in shower, separate soa

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Welcoming foyer
• Oversized island

Tags

• WELCOMING FOYER
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• SINGLE BASIN UNDERMOUNT SINK
• DEDICATED WATER FILTER FAUCET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowner association (management provided); Fees include management and master association; Community amenities: playground, pool, pickleball courts; Short-term rentals not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water
• Home design: Single-story Craftsman-style home; Built in 2026; Interior lot with paved road access; Subdivision: Owl's Head Farms
• Construction: Composite shingle roof; Siding: Brick and cement fiberboard
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Sprinkler system; Rain gutters; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms; Primary suite on the first floor with double vanity, separate shower, and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; High-efficiency AC; Electric heat controls
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Recessed lighting; Pantry; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $398k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $324k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); Freeport Senior High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 557 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1020 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,237/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $323,745 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-87,571
• Equity at exit: $59,320

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-119,491
• Equity at exit: $34,398

Cash invested: $111,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1020
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,086
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$497 /mo · $5,968/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,597

Max offer price $356,774

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-146	+0% $-284	+5% $-421	+10% $-559
Rent	-10% $-540	-5% $-412	+0% $-284	+5% $-156	+10% $-28
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-183	base $-284	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,462
• Closing costs: $11,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36 Gray Owl Dr E Freeport, FL	4.0	2.0	2108	$2,800	$1.33	23d	1	0.04mi
133 Staggerbush St Freeport, FL	4.0	2.5	2048	$2,645	$1.29	15d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   price $397,846
3. 2026-04-22
   price $392,846
4. 2026-04-15
   price $397,560
5. 2026-04-13
   price $394,560
6. 2026-04-03
   price $407,992
7. 2026-04-03
   price $403,992
8. 2026-03-26
   price $408,636
9. 2026-03-13
   price $403,636
10. 2026-03-05
    price $412,224
11. 2026-02-23
    price $429,400
12. 2026-02-16
    listed $426,400 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,286
• − Property taxes: −$5,968
• − Insurance: −$1,989
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,108
• − Management: −$3,108
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$11,574
• Taxable loss: −$10,287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,469
• After-tax cash flow: $-937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeport, FL
• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $397,846 ECAR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $392,846 ECAR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $397,560 ECAR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $394,560 ECAR
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $407,992 ECAR
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $403,992 ECAR
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $408,636 ECAR
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $403,636 ECAR
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $412,224 ECAR
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $429,400 ECAR
• 2026-02-16 Listed $426,400 ECAR

Property tax history

+774.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $208 · +774.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.