3438 Belair Rd · Baltimore, MD 21213

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,645 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1924 1,742 sqft lot $49/sqft · 44% below area Est $142k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group Website Bidding Platform. Bidding begins 6/25/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 6/29/2026 @ 12:50 PM. List Price is Suggested Opening Bid. Deposit: $15,000. Fully renovated interior townhome located in the Belair-Edison area of Baltimore City. Just minutes from Herring Run Park, Clifton Park Golf Course, Morgan State University, and the Belair Road shopping corridor. Easy access to Belair Road, Erdman Avenue, Sinclair Lane, and I-895. Property features are believed to include a renovated kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, updated plumbing, new HVAC, fresh paint, updated flooring, finished basement a

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New hvac
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• NEW HVAC
• FRESH PAINT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 space); On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas hot water; Natural gas heating
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Permanent foundation; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 14 x 116; Above-grade and below-grade structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level, one on the upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fully finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $792 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $99 of equity ($553 loan paydown + $-454 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.41%
• DSCR: 2.89
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,176
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: 18.87%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2835 Brendan Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,725 (+5%)	2mo	$76,500	$44	83
3444 Belair Rd	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-13%)	2mo	$131,000	$92	76
3620 Erdman Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-3%)	2mo	$120,000	$75	73
3914 Eierman Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,628 (-1%)	0mo	$128,000	$79	71
2846 Lake Ave	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,455 (-12%)	2mo	$235,000	$162	69
4208 Sheldon Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+2%)	2mo	$145,000	$86	69
3114 Mareco Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-14%)	2mo	$125,000	$89	64
3401 Ramona Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,812 (+10%)	0mo	$199,000	$110	62
4215 Seidel Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-7%)	2mo	$186,500	$122	57
3564 Elmora Ave	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,478 (-10%)	1mo	$133,500	$90	56
3406 Ramona Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-14%)	0mo	$85,000	$60	54
3571 Dudley Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-15%)	1mo	$175,000	$125	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.57% appreciation · 5.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $50,413
• Equity at exit: $20,983

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $136,069
• Equity at exit: $23,493

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21213

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,873 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,820/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $792

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $837	-5% $814	+0% $792	+5% $769	+10% $746
Rent	-10% $644	-5% $718	+0% $792	+5% $866	+10% $940
Rate	-1.0pp $832	-0.5pp $812	base $792	+0.5pp $771	+1.0pp $750

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2828 Lake Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,850	$1.59	5d	1	0.09mi
2837 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1164	$1,675	$1.44	44d	1	0.14mi
3436 Cardenas Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1146	$1,395	$1.22	44d	1	0.14mi
2848 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,700	$1.46	44d	1	0.15mi
2817 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	24d	1	0.16mi
3515 Parklawn Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,700	$1.37	3d	1	0.20mi
3028 Kenyon Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,395	$1.30	44d	1	0.24mi
2735 Chesterfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	11d	1	0.25mi
3027 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1950	$2,500	$1.28	44d	1	0.27mi
3005 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,600	$0.80	18d	1	0.30mi
3305 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,950	$1.38	44d	1	0.37mi
3300 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1724	$2,200	$1.28	44d	1	0.39mi
3519 Kentucky Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,100	$1.37	11d	1	0.42mi
3551 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1872	$2,095	$1.12	24d	1	0.42mi
3610 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	21d	1	0.42mi
3525 Kentucky Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$1,950	$1.27	44d	1	0.42mi
3512 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1472	$1,900	$1.29	21d	1	0.49mi
3544 Chesterfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,635	$1.36	44d	1	0.49mi
3572 Juneway Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1800	$1,200	$0.67	44d	1	0.50mi
3335 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	24d	1	0.51mi
4244 Shamrock Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1920	$1,850	$0.96	24d	1	0.53mi
3213 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1188	$1,395	$1.17	44d	1	0.53mi
3326 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	24d	1	0.53mi
3222 Lyndale Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,200	$1.47	13d	1	0.54mi
3551 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,358	$1.59	24d	1	0.59mi
4320 Sheldon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	24d	1	0.59mi
4024 Eierman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,825	$1.61	44d	1	0.59mi
3603 Ravenwood Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1566	$1,600	$1.02	44d	1	0.60mi
3573 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,300	$1.54	18d	1	0.61mi
3914 Erdman Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,319	$1.10	18d	1	0.62mi
2113 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,795	$1.34	44d	1	0.62mi
4400 Asbury Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,995	$1.57	5d	1	0.63mi
4104 Erdman Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1566	$1,075	$0.69	5d	1	0.67mi
4116 Raymonn Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1244	$1,950	$1.57	44d	1	0.88mi
1832 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1066	$1,495	$1.40	24d	1	0.95mi
4300 Orchard Ridge Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$1,809	$1.77	44d	1	0.98mi
1829 N Port St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	2000	$1,625	$0.81	44d	1	0.99mi
1802 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	24d	1	0.99mi
2522 E Federal St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1760	$1,400	$0.80	44d	1	1.08mi
1702 E 32nd St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,300	$1.71	44d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    price $169,000 990-char remark
15. 2026-04-01
    status Active 990-char remark
16. 2026-03-24
    historical 990-char remark
17. 2026-03-21
    listed $179,000 Active 990-char remark
18. 2026-03-12
    historical $179,000 990-char remark
19. 2026-03-03
    historical $1,850
20. 2026-01-05
    historical
21. 2025-11-20
    price $174,000
22. 2025-11-12
    price $179,000
23. 2025-09-24
    price $182,000
24. 2024-10-30
    listed $187,000 Active
25. 2024-07-05
    listed $1,850
26. 2024-07-05
    historical
27. 2024-06-13
    price $169,500
28. 2024-05-01
    price $174,500
29. 2024-04-24
    price $179,500
30. 2024-04-19
    price $184,500
31. 2024-04-05
    listed $189,500 Active
32. 2022-06-22
    soldstatus $103,000
33. 2021-07-11
    historical
34. 2021-05-27
    listed $109,000 Active
35. 2021-04-02
    historical Active Under Contract
36. 2021-02-05
    price $104,900
37. 2020-12-19
    listed $113,000 Active
38. 2019-09-30
    historical
39. 2019-08-28
    price $75,000
40. 2019-08-22
    listed $110,000 Active
41. 2005-03-23
    soldstatus $54,600
42. 2001-02-15
    historical
43. 2000-08-02
    listed
44. 2000-08-02
    historical
45. 2000-05-19
    listed
46. 1999-02-28
    soldstatus $22,500
47. 1999-01-19
    historical
48. 1998-11-25
    listed $27,800
49. 1996-07-23
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,820 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,820 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$2,820
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,798
• − Management: −$1,798
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $8,849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,124
• After-tax cash flow: $7,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 28,058
• Household income: $51,344
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1868.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Current HPI: 427.4453
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+77.8% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $179,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-12 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-03 Rental Removed $1,850 REDFIN
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $174,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $179,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $182,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-30 Listed $187,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-05 Listed for Rent $1,850 REDFIN
• 2024-07-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $169,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $174,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed $179,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-19 Price Changed $184,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-05 Listed $189,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-27 Listed $109,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-02 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-05 Price Changed $104,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-12-19 Listed $113,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-28 Price Changed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-22 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $54,600 Public Records
• 2001-02-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-08-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-08-02 Listed — MRIS
• 2000-05-19 Listed — MRIS
• 1999-02-28 Sold (MLS) $22,500 MRIS
• 1999-01-19 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-11-25 Listed $27,800 MRIS
• 1996-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,820 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.