1811 Fox Hill Dr · Lakeland, FL 33810

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1987 4,861 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WONDERFUL, FULLY FURNISHED 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in the desirable 55+ community of Foxwood Lake Estates where you OWN THE LAND!! Updated kitchen with all wood cabinets, updated countertops, NO CARPET and lots of natural light. The open floor plan provides lots of space for family and friends and plenty of storage!! The guest bedroom is even large enough to fit a king sized bed!! Both bedrooms have walk in closets, separate laundry room with cabinets, spacious living room and a built-in hutch in the dining room. Enjoy your morning coffee or read a good book in your private Florida Room with tile flooring! There's also more storage in the attached shed! Close to I-4, between Orlando and Tampa and only 40 miles from Disney World!! Don't forget to view all the amenities and take advantage of the very low annual HOA dues with community features that include a large clubhouse, game room, billiards room, sauna, fitness center, library, large heated pool, hot tub, pickle ball court, shuffle board courts, bocce ball court, basketball hoop, horse shoe pits, paved walking path around the lake and so much more!! Lots to do in this caring and active community like pot-luck dinners, entertainment series, dances, Wednesday morning coffee, raffles, bingo, zumba, pilates, line dancing lessons, pool aerobics, golf cart parades and many holiday celebrations! Need help visualizing the floor plan? Click the link for the 360 degree tour!! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Own the land
• Brand new murphy bed
• Fully furnished

Tags

• OWN THE LAND
• FULLY FURNISHED
• BRAND NEW MURPHY BED
• FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR
• NEW LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• NEW BATHROOM VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Private maintained road
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA with required approval; Monthly HOA: $80.67 (Annual fee $968); Association amenities: Clubhouse, Fitness Center, Pool, Pickleball, Shuffleboard, Spa/Hot Tub, Sauna, Recreation Facilities, Security, Community mailbox; Senior community; Pets allowed; Buyer approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 2-car carport
• Security: Community security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces north
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a level, paved lot
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Shed(s); Fishing pier (water extras)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Florida room
• Laundry & utility: In-home laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($185/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sleepy Hill Elementary School (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 739 students, 66% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,121
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-26,310
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,485/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,724

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $69	+0% $15	+5% $-38	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-53	+0% $15	+5% $84	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $64	base $15	+0.5pp $-34	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	25d	1	0.45mi
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	16d	1	0.70mi
6120 Burnett St Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,910	$1.91	5d	21	0.73mi
5233 US Highway 98 N Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,505	$1.89	4d	15	0.89mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	25d	1	0.92mi
909 Shirley Ann Trl Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,460	$1.54	25d	1	0.97mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	23d	8	1.01mi
6032 Norton Rd Unit 6032 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,295	$1.47	25d	1	1.08mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	4d	24	1.09mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr #106 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,700	$1.64	25d	1	1.13mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,450	$1.34	15d	2	1.13mi
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	15d	1	1.16mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	16d	1	1.36mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	25d	1	1.40mi
4111 Solamor St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,400	$1.48	16d	1	1.43mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	5d	1	1.43mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	25d	1	1.45mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	16d	1	1.45mi
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	4d	1	1.47mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	16d	1	1.48mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	15d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,900 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-03-16
    price $189,900
16. 2026-01-29
    listed $190,000 Active
17. 2023-06-02
    soldstatus $185,000 Closed 1472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1472 chars)

    WONDERFUL, FULLY FURNISHED 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in the desirable 55+ community of Foxwood Lake Estates where you OWN THE LAND!! Updated kitchen with all wood cabinets, updated countertops, NO CARPET and lots of natural light. The open floor plan provides lots of space for family and friends and plenty of storage!! The guest bedroom is even large enough to fit a king sized bed!! Both bedrooms have walk in closets, separate laundry room with cabinets, spacious living room and a built-in hutch in the dining room. Enjoy your morning coffee or read a good book in your private Florida Room with tile flooring! There's also more storage in the attached shed! Close to I-4, between Orlando and Tampa and only 40 miles from Disney World!! Don't forget to view all the amenities and take advantage of the very low annual HOA dues with community features that include a large clubhouse, game room, billiards room, sauna, fitness center, library, large heated pool, hot tub, pickle ball court, shuffle board courts, bocce ball court, basketball hoop, horse shoe pits, paved walking path around the lake and so much more!! Lots to do in this caring and active community like pot-luck dinners, entertainment series, dances, Wednesday morning coffee, raffles, bingo, zumba, pilates, line dancing lessons, pool aerobics, golf cart parades and many holiday celebrations! Need help visualizing the floor plan? Click the link for the 360 degree tour!! Schedule your showing today!

18. 2023-05-11
    status Pending 1472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1472 chars)

    WONDERFUL, FULLY FURNISHED 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in the desirable 55+ community of Foxwood Lake Estates where you OWN THE LAND!! Updated kitchen with all wood cabinets, updated countertops, NO CARPET and lots of natural light. The open floor plan provides lots of space for family and friends and plenty of storage!! The guest bedroom is even large enough to fit a king sized bed!! Both bedrooms have walk in closets, separate laundry room with cabinets, spacious living room and a built-in hutch in the dining room. Enjoy your morning coffee or read a good book in your private Florida Room with tile flooring! There's also more storage in the attached shed! Close to I-4, between Orlando and Tampa and only 40 miles from Disney World!! Don't forget to view all the amenities and take advantage of the very low annual HOA dues with community features that include a large clubhouse, game room, billiards room, sauna, fitness center, library, large heated pool, hot tub, pickle ball court, shuffle board courts, bocce ball court, basketball hoop, horse shoe pits, paved walking path around the lake and so much more!! Lots to do in this caring and active community like pot-luck dinners, entertainment series, dances, Wednesday morning coffee, raffles, bingo, zumba, pilates, line dancing lessons, pool aerobics, golf cart parades and many holiday celebrations! Need help visualizing the floor plan? Click the link for the 360 degree tour!! Schedule your showing today!

19. 2023-05-03
    listed $179,900 Active 1472-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1472 chars)

    WONDERFUL, FULLY FURNISHED 2 bedroom, 2 bath home in the desirable 55+ community of Foxwood Lake Estates where you OWN THE LAND!! Updated kitchen with all wood cabinets, updated countertops, NO CARPET and lots of natural light. The open floor plan provides lots of space for family and friends and plenty of storage!! The guest bedroom is even large enough to fit a king sized bed!! Both bedrooms have walk in closets, separate laundry room with cabinets, spacious living room and a built-in hutch in the dining room. Enjoy your morning coffee or read a good book in your private Florida Room with tile flooring! There's also more storage in the attached shed! Close to I-4, between Orlando and Tampa and only 40 miles from Disney World!! Don't forget to view all the amenities and take advantage of the very low annual HOA dues with community features that include a large clubhouse, game room, billiards room, sauna, fitness center, library, large heated pool, hot tub, pickle ball court, shuffle board courts, bocce ball court, basketball hoop, horse shoe pits, paved walking path around the lake and so much more!! Lots to do in this caring and active community like pot-luck dinners, entertainment series, dances, Wednesday morning coffee, raffles, bingo, zumba, pilates, line dancing lessons, pool aerobics, golf cart parades and many holiday celebrations! Need help visualizing the floor plan? Click the link for the 360 degree tour!! Schedule your showing today!

20. 2008-05-16
    soldstatus $74,000
21. 2008-05-09
    soldstatus $74,000 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Beautiful home in quiet community. Home features a great kitchen with newer cabinets and stove. Dining room with built in hutch. Large comfortable living room. Great master bedroom with room for sitting area and large walk in closet. 2nd bedroom is comfortable and also has a walk in closet. New sub floor when new carpet and tile put in a few years ago. Inside laundry. Detached workshop and storages. Carport easily covers 2 cars. Enclosed lanai for quiet evenings. This home ahs been lovingly maintained. The furniture can also go for the right price. The master has a new king size bed with memory foam.

22. 2008-03-22
    listed $88,500 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Beautiful home in quiet community. Home features a great kitchen with newer cabinets and stove. Dining room with built in hutch. Large comfortable living room. Great master bedroom with room for sitting area and large walk in closet. 2nd bedroom is comfortable and also has a walk in closet. New sub floor when new carpet and tile put in a few years ago. Inside laundry. Detached workshop and storages. Carport easily covers 2 cars. Enclosed lanai for quiet evenings. This home ahs been lovingly maintained. The furniture can also go for the right price. The master has a new king size bed with memory foam.

23. 2002-07-16
    soldstatus $45,000
24. 2000-09-11
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,485 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,485 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,485
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$715
• After-tax cash flow: $900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+374.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-02 Sold (MLS) $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-03 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2008-05-09 Sold (MLS) $74,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-22 Listed $88,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,485 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.