84619 11th St · Searles Valley, CA 93562

$119,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1956 0.26 ac lot $103/sqft · 21% above area Est $98k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Pioneer Point neighborhood of Trona, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with smart, low-fuss features. With approximately 1,150 sq ft of living space, a 2-car garage, and a storage shed, there's room for daily life, parking, and extra storage. Set on a 0.26-acre lot, the property includes a fenced yard-ideal for pets, privacy, and outdoor space you can actually use. Designed for minimal maintenance, this is a great option for buyers who want more time enjoying the desert lifestyle and less time working on upkeep. Plus, you're close to outdoor riding trails, making it easy to get out and explore whenever the mood hits. Additional highlights include a sewer connection and a practical layout that works well for full-time living, a weekend place, or an investment.

Key facts

• Sewer connection
• Practical layout
• Fenced in yard

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• OUTDOOR RIDING TRAILS
• SEWER CONNECTION
• PRACTICAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $530 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#500 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Trona Joint Unified (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,004 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,290 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.10%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,267
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: 21.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
84673 9th St	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,150 (0%)	11mo	$40,500	$35	87
84607 11th St	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (0%)	10mo	$160,000	$139	86
84640 11th St	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,150 (0%)	16mo	$129,000	$112	85
13876 Elm St	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,150 (0%)	17mo	$155,000	$135	81
84537 9th St	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,227 (+7%)	1mo	$88,000	$72	78
13600 Elm St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,132 (-2%)	9mo	$77,000	$68	68
13610 Elm St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,116 (-3%)	12mo	$130,000	$116	63
13548 Dogwood St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (-1%)	12mo	$115,000	$101	60
84565 9th St St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (-11%)	13mo	$100,000	$98	58
13527 Cedar St	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,084 (-6%)	10mo	$79,000	$73	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $48,072
• Equity at exit: $53,508

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $123,768
• Equity at exit: $82,462

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93562

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $607/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $917

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $598	-5% $564	+0% $530	+5% $497	+10% $463
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $468	+0% $530	+5% $593	+10% $656
Rate	-1.0pp $590	-0.5pp $561	base $530	+0.5pp $499	+1.0pp $468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-03-08
    status Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Located in the Pioneer Point neighborhood of Trona, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with smart, low-fuss features. With approximately 1,150 sq ft of living space, a 2-car garage, and a storage shed, there's room for daily life, parking, and extra storage. Set on a 0.26-acre lot, the property includes a fenced yard-ideal for pets, privacy, and outdoor space you can actually use. Designed for minimal maintenance, this is a great option for buyers who want more time enjoying the desert lifestyle and less time working on upkeep. Plus, you're close to outdoor riding trails, making it easy to get out and explore whenever the mood hits. Additional highlights include a sewer connection and a practical layout that works well for full-time living, a weekend place, or an investment.

17. 2026-02-28
    listed $119,000 Active 795-char remark

    Show marketing remark (795 chars)

    Located in Pioneer Point neighborhood of Trona, this 3 bedroom 2 bath home offers comfortable living with smart low fuss features. With approx 1150 sq ft of living space, a 2 car garage, and storage shed there is plenty of room for daily life, parking, and extra storage. Set on a 0.26 acre lot, the property includes a fenced in yard ideal for pets, privacy, and outdoor space you can actually use. Designed for minimal maintenance this is a great option for buyers who want more time to enhou the desert lifestyle and less time working on upkeep. Plus, you're close to outdoor riding trails making it easy to get out and explore whenever the mood hits, Additional highlights include a sewer connection and a practical layout that works well for full time living, weekend escape, or investment.

18. 2026-02-06
    listed $119,000 Active 804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (804 chars)

    Located in the Pioneer Point neighborhood of Trona, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with smart, low-fuss features. With approximately 1,150 sq ft of living space, a 2-car garage, and a storage shed, there's room for daily life, parking, and extra storage. Set on a 0.26-acre lot, the property includes a fenced yard-ideal for pets, privacy, and outdoor space you can actually use. Designed for minimal maintenance, this is a great option for buyers who want more time enjoying the desert lifestyle and less time working on upkeep. Plus, you're close to outdoor riding trails, making it easy to get out and explore whenever the mood hits. Additional highlights include a sewer connection and a practical layout that works well for full-time living, a weekend place, or an investment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $607 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $904 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 49.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$607
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,524
• − Management: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $4,677
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,122
• After-tax cash flow: $5,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trona Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0639840
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,514
• Composite: 29.6/100
• National rank: #11751
• State rank: #1004 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Searles Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #500
• US rank: #16976

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Searles Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,822

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $119,000 GPSMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $119,000 SSMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $607 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.