23015 Bellini Dr · Magnolia, TX 77355

$204,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2020 5,279 sqft lot Est $204k · at est. $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Walnut Plan by LGI Homes. This charming one-story home features a functional layout with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and an attached one-car garage. The open kitchen and breakfast room overlook an expansive living room, providing a perfect layout for entertaining. This home also features a private owner’s retreat with ceiling fan, two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom. Each home in Williams Trace includes designer upgrades including a full set of kitchen appliances, refrigerator with ice maker, granite countertops, brushed nickel hardware throughout and a backyard patio. Williams Trace by LGI Homes features a variety of floor plans and onsite amenities, including a playground, splash pad, picnic area and more!

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Extended driveway
• Granite countertops

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• RETRACTABLE SCREEN STORM DOORS
• EXTENDED GARAGE
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-639/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nichols Sawmill El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 562 students, 44% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,433 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,904
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23015 Bellini Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	0mo	$204,000	$177	100
28025 Irving Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,162 (+1%)	1mo	$187,000	$161	92
27010 Poets Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	13mo	$219,900	$191	82
23585 Joseph Rd	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-6%)	13mo	$315,000	$292	56
40830 Hawthorne Glades	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	6mo	$242,990	$190	53
26540 Restful Holw	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,160 (+1%)	19mo	$275,000	$237	50
26424 Leisure Ln	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,152 (0%)	23mo	$132,000	$115	46
—	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,303 (+13%)	13mo	$162,500	$125	40
26405 Easy St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,303 (+13%)	9mo	$215,000	$165	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-36,406
• Equity at exit: $30,417

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-35,891
• Equity at exit: $17,638

Cash invested: $57,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,041/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $194,586

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,000
• Closing costs: $6,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23022 Bellini Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,549	$1.10	20d	1	0.05mi
25238 Dickens Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,585	$1.38	43d	1	0.11mi
25194 Dickens Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,570	$1.36	20d	1	0.14mi
26323 Michelangelo Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,480	$1.28	43d	1	0.14mi
26327 Michelangelo Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,580	$1.16	20d	1	0.15mi
27032 Leonardo Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,560	$1.14	24d	1	0.17mi
27016 Leonardo Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,539	$1.13	21d	1	0.18mi
24053 Wilde Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,495	$1.30	2d	1	0.29mi
21163 Titian Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,540	$1.13	43d	1	0.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-02
   historical
4. 2026-02-08
   price $204,000
5. 2026-01-19
   listed $210,000 Active
6. 2025-12-09
   historical
7. 2025-12-01
   price $217,200
8. 2025-11-07
   price $217,800
9. 2025-10-30
   price $217,900
10. 2025-10-19
    price $218,600
11. 2025-10-10
    price $219,100
12. 2025-09-30
    price $219,000
13. 2025-09-14
    listed $225,000 Active
14. 2020-07-31
    soldstatus Sold 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Walnut Plan by LGI Homes. This charming one-story home features a functional layout with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and an attached one-car garage. The open kitchen and breakfast room overlook an expansive living room, providing a perfect layout for entertaining. This home also features a private owner’s retreat with ceiling fan, two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom. Each home in Williams Trace includes designer upgrades including a full set of kitchen appliances, refrigerator with ice maker, granite countertops, brushed nickel hardware throughout and a backyard patio. Williams Trace by LGI Homes features a variety of floor plans and onsite amenities, including a playground, splash pad, picnic area and more!

15. 2020-06-29
    status Pending 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Walnut Plan by LGI Homes. This charming one-story home features a functional layout with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and an attached one-car garage. The open kitchen and breakfast room overlook an expansive living room, providing a perfect layout for entertaining. This home also features a private owner’s retreat with ceiling fan, two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom. Each home in Williams Trace includes designer upgrades including a full set of kitchen appliances, refrigerator with ice maker, granite countertops, brushed nickel hardware throughout and a backyard patio. Williams Trace by LGI Homes features a variety of floor plans and onsite amenities, including a playground, splash pad, picnic area and more!

16. 2020-06-10
    listed $179,900 Active 737-char remark

    Show marketing remark (737 chars)

    Walnut Plan by LGI Homes. This charming one-story home features a functional layout with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and an attached one-car garage. The open kitchen and breakfast room overlook an expansive living room, providing a perfect layout for entertaining. This home also features a private owner’s retreat with ceiling fan, two secondary bedrooms and a second full bathroom. Each home in Williams Trace includes designer upgrades including a full set of kitchen appliances, refrigerator with ice maker, granite countertops, brushed nickel hardware throughout and a backyard patio. Williams Trace by LGI Homes features a variety of floor plans and onsite amenities, including a playground, splash pad, picnic area and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,041 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,733 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$692/yr (+$58/mo · 22.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,427
• − Property taxes: −$3,041
• − Insurance: −$1,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$5,935
• Taxable loss: −$4,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$987
• After-tax cash flow: $347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $204,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $217,200 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $217,800 HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $217,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $218,600 HARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $219,100 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-14 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2020-07-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-06-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-10 Listed $179,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+38.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,041 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.