4705 Fox Hollow Lot 10 Fox Hollow Rd · Graham, TX 76450

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1989 1,742 sqft lot $118/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Find your ultimate lake getaway at this incredible family lake house, where life is just better at Possum Kingdom Lake! This fully furnished 3 bedroom and 1.75 bathroom home is ready for some new owners and memories to be made. Situated on 2 lots, the property boasts a spacious front porch, ideal for entertaining or simply enjoying your morning coffee. Recent updates throughout the home include a new HVAC outside unit replaced 2 years ago, a new hot water heater, and newly remodeled kitchen with new cabinets. Additionally a new living room sectional has been added. The property also features a 2007 Ebbtide 2100 21' boat which will convey with the property! Please note that this property requires a lease from Fox Hollow Resort, currently $7800 per annum. The Resort offers a wonderful family atmosphere, complete with a boat ramp, courtesy docks, and a swimming area. This exceptional property offers a unique, turn-key opportunity, inclusive of furnishings and recreational toys, perfect for those seeking the ultimate lake lifestyle! Whether you're cruising around the Resort in your golf cart or on the water in your boat, time wasted at the lake is time well spent!

Key facts

• Swimming area
• Courtesy docks
• Spacious front porch

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• NEWLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• BOAT RAMP
• COURTESY DOCKS
• SWIMMING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.3% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#232 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety C-.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.65%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $488,641
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -79.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4705 Fox Hollow Rd #41	0.08mi	3/1.5	720 (-14%)	7mo	$38,000	$53	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-420
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $19,638
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76450

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $383/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $750

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $302	-5% $274	+0% $246	+5% $218	+10% $190
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $204	+0% $246	+5% $288	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $271	base $246	+0.5pp $220	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    status Active 1188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1188 chars)

    Find your ultimate lake getaway at this incredible family lake house, where life is just better at Possum Kingdom Lake! This fully furnished 3 bedroom and 1.75 bathroom home is ready for some new owners and memories to be made. Situated on 2 lots, the property boasts a spacious front porch, ideal for entertaining or simply enjoying your morning coffee. Recent updates throughout the home include a new HVAC outside unit replaced 2 years ago, a new hot water heater, and newly remodeled kitchen with new cabinets. Additionally a new living room sectional has been added. The property also features a 2007 Ebbtide 2100 21' boat which will convey with the property! Please note that this property requires a lease from Fox Hollow Resort, currently $7800 per annum. The Resort offers a wonderful family atmosphere, complete with a boat ramp, courtesy docks, and a swimming area. This exceptional property offers a unique, turn-key opportunity, inclusive of furnishings and recreational toys, perfect for those seeking the ultimate lake lifestyle! Whether you're cruising around the Resort in your golf cart or on the water in your boat, time wasted at the lake is time well spent!

18. 2026-04-21
    status Pending 1188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1188 chars)

    Find your ultimate lake getaway at this incredible family lake house, where life is just better at Possum Kingdom Lake! This fully furnished 3 bedroom and 1.75 bathroom home is ready for some new owners and memories to be made. Situated on 2 lots, the property boasts a spacious front porch, ideal for entertaining or simply enjoying your morning coffee. Recent updates throughout the home include a new HVAC outside unit replaced 2 years ago, a new hot water heater, and newly remodeled kitchen with new cabinets. Additionally a new living room sectional has been added. The property also features a 2007 Ebbtide 2100 21' boat which will convey with the property! Please note that this property requires a lease from Fox Hollow Resort, currently $7800 per annum. The Resort offers a wonderful family atmosphere, complete with a boat ramp, courtesy docks, and a swimming area. This exceptional property offers a unique, turn-key opportunity, inclusive of furnishings and recreational toys, perfect for those seeking the ultimate lake lifestyle! Whether you're cruising around the Resort in your golf cart or on the water in your boat, time wasted at the lake is time well spent!

19. 2026-04-11
    historical Active Option Contract 1188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1188 chars)

    Find your ultimate lake getaway at this incredible family lake house, where life is just better at Possum Kingdom Lake! This fully furnished 3 bedroom and 1.75 bathroom home is ready for some new owners and memories to be made. Situated on 2 lots, the property boasts a spacious front porch, ideal for entertaining or simply enjoying your morning coffee. Recent updates throughout the home include a new HVAC outside unit replaced 2 years ago, a new hot water heater, and newly remodeled kitchen with new cabinets. Additionally a new living room sectional has been added. The property also features a 2007 Ebbtide 2100 21' boat which will convey with the property! Please note that this property requires a lease from Fox Hollow Resort, currently $7800 per annum. The Resort offers a wonderful family atmosphere, complete with a boat ramp, courtesy docks, and a swimming area. This exceptional property offers a unique, turn-key opportunity, inclusive of furnishings and recreational toys, perfect for those seeking the ultimate lake lifestyle! Whether you're cruising around the Resort in your golf cart or on the water in your boat, time wasted at the lake is time well spent!

20. 2026-04-06
    price $99,000 1188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1188 chars)

    Find your ultimate lake getaway at this incredible family lake house, where life is just better at Possum Kingdom Lake! This fully furnished 3 bedroom and 1.75 bathroom home is ready for some new owners and memories to be made. Situated on 2 lots, the property boasts a spacious front porch, ideal for entertaining or simply enjoying your morning coffee. Recent updates throughout the home include a new HVAC outside unit replaced 2 years ago, a new hot water heater, and newly remodeled kitchen with new cabinets. Additionally a new living room sectional has been added. The property also features a 2007 Ebbtide 2100 21' boat which will convey with the property! Please note that this property requires a lease from Fox Hollow Resort, currently $7800 per annum. The Resort offers a wonderful family atmosphere, complete with a boat ramp, courtesy docks, and a swimming area. This exceptional property offers a unique, turn-key opportunity, inclusive of furnishings and recreational toys, perfect for those seeking the ultimate lake lifestyle! Whether you're cruising around the Resort in your golf cart or on the water in your boat, time wasted at the lake is time well spent!

21. 2026-02-12
    listed $119,000 Active 1188-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1188 chars)

    Find your ultimate lake getaway at this incredible family lake house, where life is just better at Possum Kingdom Lake! This fully furnished 3 bedroom and 1.75 bathroom home is ready for some new owners and memories to be made. Situated on 2 lots, the property boasts a spacious front porch, ideal for entertaining or simply enjoying your morning coffee. Recent updates throughout the home include a new HVAC outside unit replaced 2 years ago, a new hot water heater, and newly remodeled kitchen with new cabinets. Additionally a new living room sectional has been added. The property also features a 2007 Ebbtide 2100 21' boat which will convey with the property! Please note that this property requires a lease from Fox Hollow Resort, currently $7800 per annum. The Resort offers a wonderful family atmosphere, complete with a boat ramp, courtesy docks, and a swimming area. This exceptional property offers a unique, turn-key opportunity, inclusive of furnishings and recreational toys, perfect for those seeking the ultimate lake lifestyle! Whether you're cruising around the Resort in your golf cart or on the water in your boat, time wasted at the lake is time well spent!

22. 2017-07-17
    soldstatus Sold 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Remodeled LAKE THEME!!!!! Outdoor Party Here. Decor, furnishings, colors screams of FUN. Bunk house, golf cart included. All of the neighbors gather here after a day on PK. Walk to Fox Hollow Restaurant, swim area, boat ramp. 2010 Immaculate Crownline available outside of sell of property or Seller's would consider a package sale Fee will be $3,200 per year, July 1 2016. So many improvements coming soon to Fox Hollow. Don't miss it!

23. 2017-06-30
    status Pending 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Remodeled LAKE THEME!!!!! Outdoor Party Here. Decor, furnishings, colors screams of FUN. Bunk house, golf cart included. All of the neighbors gather here after a day on PK. Walk to Fox Hollow Restaurant, swim area, boat ramp. 2010 Immaculate Crownline available outside of sell of property or Seller's would consider a package sale Fee will be $3,200 per year, July 1 2016. So many improvements coming soon to Fox Hollow. Don't miss it!

24. 2017-05-30
    price $38,000 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Remodeled LAKE THEME!!!!! Outdoor Party Here. Decor, furnishings, colors screams of FUN. Bunk house, golf cart included. All of the neighbors gather here after a day on PK. Walk to Fox Hollow Restaurant, swim area, boat ramp. 2010 Immaculate Crownline available outside of sell of property or Seller's would consider a package sale Fee will be $3,200 per year, July 1 2016. So many improvements coming soon to Fox Hollow. Don't miss it!

25. 2016-09-06
    price $40,000 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Remodeled LAKE THEME!!!!! Outdoor Party Here. Decor, furnishings, colors screams of FUN. Bunk house, golf cart included. All of the neighbors gather here after a day on PK. Walk to Fox Hollow Restaurant, swim area, boat ramp. 2010 Immaculate Crownline available outside of sell of property or Seller's would consider a package sale Fee will be $3,200 per year, July 1 2016. So many improvements coming soon to Fox Hollow. Don't miss it!

26. 2016-06-24
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2016-06-04
    status Pending
28. 2016-05-28
    price $65,000
29. 2016-02-22
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2016-02-02
    status Pending
31. 2016-01-25
    listed $42,000 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Remodeled LAKE THEME!!!!! Outdoor Party Here. Decor, furnishings, colors screams of FUN. Bunk house, golf cart included. All of the neighbors gather here after a day on PK. Walk to Fox Hollow Restaurant, swim area, boat ramp. 2010 Immaculate Crownline available outside of sell of property or Seller's would consider a package sale Fee will be $3,200 per year, July 1 2016. So many improvements coming soon to Fox Hollow. Don't miss it!

32. 2016-01-19
    price $10,000
33. 2016-01-14
    listed $13,000 Active
34. 2015-09-07
    listed $80,000 Active
35. 2003-05-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $383 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,429/yr (+$119/mo · 372.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$383
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,019
• − Management: −$1,019
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,392
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$334
• After-tax cash flow: $2,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graham

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #5580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,890

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.82%
• Current HPI: 198.6373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+23.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-11 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2017-07-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2017-06-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2017-05-30 Price Changed $38,000 NTREIS
• 2016-09-06 Price Changed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2016-06-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-06-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-05-28 Price Changed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2016-02-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-02-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-01-25 Listed $42,000 NTREIS
• 2016-01-19 Price Changed $10,000 NTREIS
• 2016-01-14 Listed $13,000 NTREIS
• 2015-09-07 Listed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2003-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $383 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.