14 Loren Dr · Escudilla Bonita, NM 87829

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Other · 47 Days on market

Built 1985 23 ac lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Views, Views and more views from this beautiful 23 acre parcel in Escudilla Bonita. Parcel is located in a quiet area of the the subdivision where the lot sizes are larger for room to expand or to find seclusion. There is an elk herd in the area and can be seen wandering through this property. Home could use some TLC and would be a perfect starter home or escape from the city. Home is a single wide with an addition. It is situated on the lot so one can enjoy the beautiful mountain views and the famous New Mexico sunsets. Electric and septic are in place along with a well that would need to be redrilled or cleaned out. Property also features a large open shed that can be used as a shop or a

Key facts

• 23 acre parcel
• Public lands
• Large open shed

Tags

• 23 ACRE PARCEL
• LARGE OPEN SHED
• PUBLIC LANDS
• POPULAR HUNTING UNITS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Manufactured on land (residential)
• Exterior features: 23.05-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating
• Interior features: No central heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($628/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#161 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Quemado Independent Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #10 of 29 in NM (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Catron County population projected at -52% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $94,311 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.95%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $19,918
• Equity at exit: $54,632

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $62,794
• Equity at exit: $86,579

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87829

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $507/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $877

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $85	+0% $52	+5% $20	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $15	+0% $52	+5% $90	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $82	base $52	+0.5pp $23	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $114,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $114,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $114,900 Active
17. 2024-09-11
    price $129,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $507 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$412/yr (+$34/mo · 81.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$507
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$905
• − Management: −$905
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$1,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$325
• After-tax cash flow: $953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quemado Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502130
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 50.00%
• Median HH income: $38,381
• Composite: 41.46/100
• National rank: #3464
• State rank: #10 of 29 in NM

Livability — Escudilla Bonita

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #21940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Escudilla Bonita, NM
• Population (ZIP): 840

Population outlook (Catron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847 people
• By 2030: 2,487 · -12.6%
• By 2040: 1,821 · -36.0%
• By 2050: 1,366 · -52.0%
• By 2075: 909 · -68.1%
• By 2100: 617 · -78.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 17% Lithuanian 15% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8%
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Catron

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.1) · D 24.2% · R 74.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.8pp · 2024: -50.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.1 2020: R+47.4 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+43.7 2008: R+34.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 98.3591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $114,900 NMMLS
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $129,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $507 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.