8649 Harvard Ave · Odessa, TX 79765

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,514 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2012 7,405 sqft lot $171/sqft · 7% below area Est $279k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home in North Odessa featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. This property sits on a desirable corner lot and offers a nice sized backyard. The yard also includes a storage shed for extra space. Conveniently located near shopping centers and schools. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Near schools
• Nice sized backyard
• Storage shed

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NICE SIZED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• NEAR SHOPPING CENTERS
• NEAR SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lee Buice El (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 843 students, 54% FRL); Wilson & Young Medal of Honor Middle (math 14% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 1,245 students, 56% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 433 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,052 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.37%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,921
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -7.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-31,050
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-28,430
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,421 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,184/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,086

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $337	+0% $264	+5% $191	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $73	-5% $168	+0% $264	+5% $360	+10% $455
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $330	base $264	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8732 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	45d	1	0.12mi
493 Chitalpa Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$2,500	$1.99	45d	1	0.24mi
8623 Holiday Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,800	$1.46	45d	1	0.26mi
8633 Yale Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,500	$1.80	22d	1	0.29mi
8633 Yale Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,500	$1.82	15d	1	0.29mi
908 Purdue St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,500	$1.69	45d	1	0.35mi
8610 Lamar Ave Unit NA Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	15d	1	0.36mi
912 Purdue St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,400	$1.35	45d	1	0.36mi
915 Canal St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2080	$3,100	$1.49	22d	1	0.43mi
1102 Canal St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2095	$2,600	$1.24	22d	1	0.59mi
216 E 91st St Odessa, TX	3.0	3.0	1602	$2,500	$1.56	15d	1	0.64mi
1115 Canal St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,400	$1.31	45d	1	0.64mi
1025 Pine Leaf Pl Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	45d	1	0.68mi
1200 Cajun St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1102	$2,300	$2.09	22d	1	0.72mi
1210 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,600	$1.64	45d	1	0.74mi
9017 Pepper Grass Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,500	$1.41	45d	1	0.76mi
1218 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	22d	1	0.77mi
1028 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,145	$1.47	15d	1	0.77mi
800 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2005	$2,550	$1.27	45d	1	0.79mi
1023 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,500	$1.42	15d	1	0.79mi
9219 Holiday Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	2118	$2,800	$1.32	45d	1	0.84mi
9031 Antelope Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1923	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.87mi
1320 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,800	$1.93	45d	1	0.87mi
1327 Masquerade Blvd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,700	$1.96	46d	1	0.96mi
310 E 95th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,300	$1.65	22d	1	1.04mi
1508 E 89th St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2056	$2,700	$1.31	22d	1	1.07mi
713 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,500	$1.60	45d	1	1.08mi
808 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,350	$1.59	45d	1	1.08mi
1226 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$2,250	$1.47	15d	1	1.11mi
900 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,300	$1.40	45d	1	1.13mi
1109 Wagon Way Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,400	$1.58	15d	1	1.14mi
88 Maverick Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,200	$1.57	45d	1	1.17mi
819 E 97th Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,350	$1.44	15d	1	1.18mi
1303 Terra Cotta St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,999	$1.45	45d	1	1.20mi
1306 E 94th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,350	$1.58	22d	1	1.21mi
618 Juniper Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,700	$1.68	15d	1	1.29mi
9914 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$3,200	$1.55	45d	1	1.31mi
9918 Lamar Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,400	$1.50	15d	1	1.37mi
320 Panhandle Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	45d	1	1.42mi
301 Panhandle Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,950	$1.44	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $259,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $259,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-05-13
   price $259,000 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   Great home in North Odessa featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. This property sits on a desirable corner lot and offers a nice sized backyard. The yard also includes a storage shed for extra space. Conveniently located near shopping centers and schools. Schedule a showing today!

4. 2026-04-12
   listed $266,000 Active 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   Great home in North Odessa featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. This property sits on a desirable corner lot and offers a nice sized backyard. The yard also includes a storage shed for extra space. Conveniently located near shopping centers and schools. Schedule a showing today!

5. 2018-04-25
   soldstatus
6. 2018-04-23
   soldstatus 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Great starter home in North Odessa. This home is perfect for anyone looking to buy a newer home with out having to wait. It offers 3 bedroom, 2 full baths, 2 car garage and a good size back yard with storage. This cozy home has a sequestered master bedroom. This home will include dishwasher, stainless steel electric range and microwave. Ready to make a move don't wait any longer come look at this great home and make it your own. Schedule your private viewing today, don't wait!!

7. 2018-03-09
   listed $195,000 482-char remark

   Show marketing remark (482 chars)

   Great starter home in North Odessa. This home is perfect for anyone looking to buy a newer home with out having to wait. It offers 3 bedroom, 2 full baths, 2 car garage and a good size back yard with storage. This cozy home has a sequestered master bedroom. This home will include dishwasher, stainless steel electric range and microwave. Ready to make a move don't wait any longer come look at this great home and make it your own. Schedule your private viewing today, don't wait!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,184 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,740 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,555/yr (+$213/mo · 117.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$2,184
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,324
• − Management: −$2,324
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$1,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$270
• After-tax cash flow: $3,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+32.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $259,000 ODMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $266,000 ODMLS
• 2018-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-23 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2018-03-09 Listed $195,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,184 · -39.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.