1941 W Oliver -- · Show Low, AZ 85901

$450,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2001 0.26 ac lot Est $408k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mountain memories start here! Surrounded by more than 40 majestic Ponderosa pines and situated on a desirable corner lot, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and outdoor living. The open-concept kitchen and living area create a warm gathering space, while the split floor plan provides privacy and functionality. The fully fenced backyard offers room for kids, pets, and entertaining. A huge covered RV parking area with gated access provides space for your RV, boat, side-by-sides, and more. With no HOA, you'll enjoy added freedom. Located near parks, trails, lakes, golf, shopping, and dining, this property is ideal as a full-time residence or

Key facts

• Gated access
• Covered rv parking
• Near parks

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED RV PARKING
• GATED ACCESS
• NO HOA
• NEAR PARKS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 1-car carport; RV access/parking with gated RV area; Parking pad
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Site-built; Multi/split level
• Construction: Concrete and frame construction with wood siding
• Exterior features: Dog run; Porch (covered); Patio; Chain link and partial fencing; Corner lot with landscaping and many trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Double pane windows; Gas fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $363k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $363k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whipple Ranch Elementary School (404 students, 50% FRL); Show Low Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 587 students, 45% FRL); Show Low High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 897 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $450k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $362,782 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $407,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1801 W Miller	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	4mo	$375,000	$248	83
1720 W Huning	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-4%)	8mo	$390,000	$283	74
1521 W Gardner St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+5%)	1mo	$395,000	$260	73
1240 W Owens	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-4%)	3mo	$287,000	$208	72
1700 W Mcneil --	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,382 (-4%)	7mo	$275,000	$199	72
30 S Bench Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,563 (+8%)	2mo	$615,000	$393	70
1041 S Pinon Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-1%)	3mo	$530,000	$372	62
241 N Canyon Loop	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-2%)	7mo	$425,000	$301	60
1461 W Oliver	0.28mi	3/3.0	1,586 (+10%)	8mo	$265,000	$167	59
320 S 11Th Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+10%)	5mo	$255,000	$161	50
940 S Beech Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+10%)	1mo	$600,000	$377	48
201 N Canyon Loop	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+10%)	6mo	$464,000	$293	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-61,943
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-40,369
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 897
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,717/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$762
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,406

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $430	-5% $303	+0% $176	+5% $48	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $32	+0% $176	+5% $319	+10% $462
Rate	-1.0pp $402	-0.5pp $290	base $176	+0.5pp $59	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
311 S 16th Ave Unit 1545774P Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1797	$4,355	$2.42	15d	1	0.20mi
2850 W Villa Loop Unit 1 Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,700	$1.66	15d	1	0.92mi
2890 W Villa Loop Unit 1 Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,700	$1.63	45d	1	0.93mi
341 N 4th Ave Show Low, AZ	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,195	$1.22	15d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $450,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $450,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $450,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on marketlisting id $450,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-09
    listed $450,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,717 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,970 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,253/yr (+$104/mo · 72.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$1,717
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,483
• − Management: −$3,483
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,367
• After-tax cash flow: $3,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1328.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $450,000 CAAR
• 2008-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2001-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,717 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.