34 Sugar Grove Ct #7 · St. Peters, MO 63376

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 848 sqft · Condo public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1989 $310/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property is being sold in a short sale. Showing is by appointment only.

Key facts

• $310 HOA
• Parking
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $613 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 4.2% in St. Peters — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Francis Howell R-III (suburban): math 53% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #11 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Becky-David Elem. (math 62% / reading 71%, grade B+, #57 of 1,115 statewide, top 5%, 849 students, 13% FRL); Francis Howell North High (math 40% / reading 55%, grade D, #154 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,679 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 298 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.38%
• DSCR: 3.60
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $31,502
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $76,692
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63376

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 298
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,930/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$310
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $613

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $638	-5% $626	+0% $613	+5% $600	+10% $587
Rent	-10% $479	-5% $546	+0% $613	+5% $680	+10% $747
Rate	-1.0pp $636	-0.5pp $624	base $613	+0.5pp $601	+1.0pp $589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
531 Saravalle Dr Saint Peters, MO	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,650	$1.63	45d	1	0.47mi
100 Broadridge Dr St Peters, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,648	$1.95	3d	10	0.86mi
1000 Jasper Ln St Peters, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$2,000	$1.91	3d	12	1.01mi
11 Rose Dr St Charles, MO	2.0	1.5	860	$1,850	$2.15	8d	1	1.06mi
4153 McClay Rd Saint Charles, MO	3.0	2.0	1096	$2,100	$1.92	45d	1	1.37mi
1306 Garden Valley Dr Unit C St Peters, MO	1.0	1.0	720	$1,000	$1.39	20d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $310 · $3,720/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $45,000 Active
3. 2021-10-22
   soldstatus $138,500
4. 2003-10-17
   soldstatus $71,100
5. 2001-03-27
   soldstatus $64,900
6. 1998-09-21
   soldstatus $56,500
7. 1996-08-01
   soldstatus $48,900
8. 1989-06-01
   soldstatus $45,070

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,930
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − HOA: −$3,720
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,374
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,770
• After-tax cash flow: $5,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Francis Howell R-III
• NCES district ID: 2928950
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $79,768
• Composite: 52.23/100
• National rank: #1602
• State rank: #11 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Peters

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Peters, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 74,876
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 74,962
• Household income: $96,393
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 964.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -315.50%
• Current HPI: 230.3362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-0.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $138,500 Public Records
• 2003-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $71,100 Public Records
• 2001-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records
• 1998-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records
• 1996-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,900 Public Records
• 1989-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,070 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,930 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.