16101 N EL Mirage Rd #345 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Manufactured · 248 Days on market

Built 2001 $66/sqft · 20% above area Est $115k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bed, 2-bath home featuring carport parking! The kitchen offers a pantry and a kitchen island. In the primary bedroom, you will have a private bathroom with dual sinks, adding convenience to your everyday routine. Enjoy relaxing under the covered patio with your favorite evening beverage. What are you waiting for? Make it yours before it's gone!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2001

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $697 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $139k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.50%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,404
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 20.45%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #331	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,900 (-10%)	11mo	$170,000	$89	75
16101 N El Mirage Rd #361	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-15%)	12mo	$164,000	$92	62
16101 N El Mirage Rd #351	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-14%)	19mo	$120,000	$67	59
16101 N El Mirage Rd #444	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-14%)	22mo	$85,000	$47	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $15,932
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $48,004
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,099 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $793	-5% $745	+0% $697	+5% $649	+10% $601
Rent	-10% $532	-5% $614	+0% $697	+5% $780	+10% $863
Rate	-1.0pp $767	-0.5pp $733	base $697	+0.5pp $661	+1.0pp $625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	25d	1	0.07mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	25d	1	0.11mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	19d	1	0.12mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,095	$0.99	0d	1	0.12mi
12204 W Ocotillo Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$1,949	$0.92	25d	1	0.16mi
15204 N El Frio Ct El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,019	$1.02	4d	1	0.48mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	45d	1	0.53mi
14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$2,010	$1.31	45d	1	0.71mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	23d	1	0.72mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	25d	1	0.72mi
14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$2,040	$1.24	45d	1	0.78mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	1795	$1,300	$0.72	4d	1	0.79mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	18d	1	0.80mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	0d	1	0.80mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	45d	1	0.86mi
12532 W Saint Moritz Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	6d	1	0.91mi
12537 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	25d	1	1.01mi
11425 W Pinehollow Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$2,100	$1.34	0d	1	1.02mi
11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	25d	1	1.09mi
16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$1,900	$1.21	45d	1	1.17mi
11554 W Mule Deer Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1963	$1,816	$0.93	45d	1	1.21mi
13029 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$1,860	$0.95	3d	1	1.24mi
13007 W Mandalay Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2178	$2,095	$0.96	25d	1	1.26mi
12830 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2179	$2,130	$0.98	0d	1	1.28mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,759	$1.16	25d	1	1.31mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,709	$1.12	16d	1	1.31mi
13002 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,695	$1.12	0d	1	1.39mi
13217 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	2d	1	1.41mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	6d	1	1.43mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	25d	1	1.43mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,885	$1.30	0d	1	1.44mi
13342 W Canyon Creek Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,750	$1.23	25d	1	1.47mi
13365 W Canyon Creek Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,100	$1.09	0d	1	1.48mi
13402 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1987	$2,595	$1.31	25d	1	1.48mi
13402 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1987	$4,000	$2.01	45d	1	1.48mi
14944 N 133rd Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$2,171	$1.43	23d	1	1.48mi
12530 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1615	$1,830	$1.13	6d	1	1.49mi
12530 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,075	$1.28	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 227 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    price $139,000 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bed, 2-bath home featuring carport parking! The kitchen offers a pantry and a kitchen island. In the primary bedroom, you will have a private bathroom with dual sinks, adding convenience to your everyday routine. Enjoy relaxing under the covered patio with your favorite evening beverage. What are you waiting for? Make it yours before it's gone!

16. 2026-02-09
    price $146,000 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bed, 2-bath home featuring carport parking! The kitchen offers a pantry and a kitchen island. In the primary bedroom, you will have a private bathroom with dual sinks, adding convenience to your everyday routine. Enjoy relaxing under the covered patio with your favorite evening beverage. What are you waiting for? Make it yours before it's gone!

17. 2025-10-30
    price $163,000 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bed, 2-bath home featuring carport parking! The kitchen offers a pantry and a kitchen island. In the primary bedroom, you will have a private bathroom with dual sinks, adding convenience to your everyday routine. Enjoy relaxing under the covered patio with your favorite evening beverage. What are you waiting for? Make it yours before it's gone!

18. 2025-10-16
    listed $172,000 Active 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bed, 2-bath home featuring carport parking! The kitchen offers a pantry and a kitchen island. In the primary bedroom, you will have a private bathroom with dual sinks, adding convenience to your everyday routine. Enjoy relaxing under the covered patio with your favorite evening beverage. What are you waiting for? Make it yours before it's gone!

19. 2007-12-11
    soldstatus $91,900 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    SPACIOUS 40 X 54 MANUFACTURED HOME,SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN,3BR'S,WALK-IN CLOSETS IN ALL BR'S.GLAMOUR MASTER BATH WITH CORNER TUB,SEPERATE SHOWER,DOUBLE SINKS & PICTURE WINDOW.ENERGY SAVING DUAL GLAZED WINDOWS & CEILING FANS T/O.LARGE SKYLIGHTS IN KITCHEN & MASTER BATH.SPACIOUS KITCHEN WITH OAK FINISHED CABINETS,DELUXE GAS RANGE,REFRIG W/BOTTOM FREEZER,ISLAND COUNTER.ALL QUALITY APPLIANCES (W&D) CONVEY WITH HOME.COVERED PATIO,LOVELY PRIVATE FENCED YARD WITH 8X8 STORAGE SHED.SIDEWALK ALONG SIDE OF HOME.THIS IS A LEASEDHOLD COMMUNITY,PARK APPROVAL REQUIRED,OFFICE # IN THE PALMS 623-875-7400

20. 2007-12-11
    historical 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    SPACIOUS 40 X 54 MANUFACTURED HOME,SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN,3BR'S,WALK-IN CLOSETS IN ALL BR'S.GLAMOUR MASTER BATH WITH CORNER TUB,SEPERATE SHOWER,DOUBLE SINKS & PICTURE WINDOW.ENERGY SAVING DUAL GLAZED WINDOWS & CEILING FANS T/O.LARGE SKYLIGHTS IN KITCHEN & MASTER BATH.SPACIOUS KITCHEN WITH OAK FINISHED CABINETS,DELUXE GAS RANGE,REFRIG W/BOTTOM FREEZER,ISLAND COUNTER.ALL QUALITY APPLIANCES (W&D) CONVEY WITH HOME.COVERED PATIO,LOVELY PRIVATE FENCED YARD WITH 8X8 STORAGE SHED.SIDEWALK ALONG SIDE OF HOME.THIS IS A LEASEDHOLD COMMUNITY,PARK APPROVAL REQUIRED,OFFICE # IN THE PALMS 623-875-7400

21. 2007-09-18
    listed $91,900 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    SPACIOUS 40 X 54 MANUFACTURED HOME,SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN,3BR'S,WALK-IN CLOSETS IN ALL BR'S.GLAMOUR MASTER BATH WITH CORNER TUB,SEPERATE SHOWER,DOUBLE SINKS & PICTURE WINDOW.ENERGY SAVING DUAL GLAZED WINDOWS & CEILING FANS T/O.LARGE SKYLIGHTS IN KITCHEN & MASTER BATH.SPACIOUS KITCHEN WITH OAK FINISHED CABINETS,DELUXE GAS RANGE,REFRIG W/BOTTOM FREEZER,ISLAND COUNTER.ALL QUALITY APPLIANCES (W&D) CONVEY WITH HOME.COVERED PATIO,LOVELY PRIVATE FENCED YARD WITH 8X8 STORAGE SHED.SIDEWALK ALONG SIDE OF HOME.THIS IS A LEASEDHOLD COMMUNITY,PARK APPROVAL REQUIRED,OFFICE # IN THE PALMS 623-875-7400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $6,545
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,571
• After-tax cash flow: $6,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+51.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $146,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $163,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $172,000 ARMLS
• 2007-12-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-12-11 Sold (MLS) $91,900 ARMLS
• 2007-09-18 Listed $91,900 ARMLS