577 NW 259th Ter · Newberry, FL 32669

$268,750

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2007 9,148 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 3 bedroom/2 bath home in Bartley Lane! Bright open floor plan with spacious living area, tiled dining area and kitchen, tray ceiling in the master, and French doors leading an open patio. Nestled at the end of a quiet street in a small neighborhood just minutes from downtown Newberry.

Key facts

• Highly rated schools
• Oversized backyard
• 9,148 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS
• GROWING COMMUNITY OF NEWBERRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot size approximately 0.21 acres
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Located in the Bartley Lane development; No association (no HOA)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; East facing
• Construction: Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Cul-de-sac location (home at end of cul-de-sac)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 418 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $269k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,696 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-48,156
• Equity at exit: $40,071

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-43,919
• Equity at exit: $23,237

Cash invested: $75,250 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32669

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 418
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,287 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,409
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,553/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $252,143

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,188
• Closing costs: $8,062
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25107 SW 9th Ln Newberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,095	$1.45	13d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $268,750 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $268,750 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $268,750 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,553 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,553 · $379/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,054
• − Property taxes: −$4,553
• − Insurance: −$1,344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,195
• − Management: −$2,195
• − Depreciation: −$7,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,372
• After-tax cash flow: $244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newberry, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 17,704
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,704
• Household income: $99,548
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Black 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.83%
• Current HPI: 263.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+36.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $268,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $90,300 Public Records
• 2015-07-09 Sold (MLS) $90,287 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-24 Listed $133,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-16 Sold (MLS) $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-13 Listed $186,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-31 Listed $196,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,553 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.