15836 S Hickory Ln · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2021 10,019 sqft lot Est $236k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly remodeled 3-bed, 2-bath home featuring new vinyl flooring, fresh paint, new doors and trim, updated lighting, and renovated bathrooms. The spacious kitchen offers quartz countertops, a center island, and brand-new appliances. Enjoy a split-bedroom floor plan, walk-in closets, a long driveway with parking for 3 vehicles, and an air-conditioned storage shed. USDA financing accepted!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Vinyl flooring
• Fresh paint

Tags

• REMODELED
• VINYL FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW DOORS
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Currently financed with conventional financing
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 3 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Natural desert front and back; Dirt front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $220k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,345 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.78%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,096
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20525 E Conestoga Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-1%)	10mo	$265,000	$245	77
20524 E Concho Ln	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,119 (+3%)	5mo	$199,000	$178	76
16057 S Indian Bend Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,081 (-1%)	15mo	$252,500	$234	74
20225 E Conestoga Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+8%)	16mo	$239,000	$204	69
20721 E Mingus Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+6%)	8mo	$190,000	$165	62
20583 E Conestoga Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	973 (-11%)	10mo	$225,000	$231	59
20570 E Larry Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	967 (-11%)	12mo	$85,000	$88	58
16029 S Apache Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,061 (-2%)	11mo	$230,000	$217	56
20518 E Sierra Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+11%)	14mo	$224,900	$186	54
16062 S Indian Bend Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	925 (-15%)	14mo	$206,000	$223	46
20935 E Bright Sun (1.03 Acres) Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+8%)	16mo	$306,000	$261	40
16071 S Yavapai Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	925 (-15%)	5mo	$52,000	$56	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $135,267
• Equity at exit: $198,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $385,837
• Equity at exit: $427,217

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $544/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $370	-5% $307	+0% $245	+5% $183	+10% $121
Rent	-10% $92	-5% $168	+0% $245	+5% $322	+10% $399
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $301	base $245	+0.5pp $188	+1.0pp $130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 391-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $219,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $544 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,451 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$907/yr (+$76/mo · 166.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$544
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$769
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$184
• After-tax cash flow: $3,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1899.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $219,900 ARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $219,900 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $120,200 Public Records
• 2026-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $120,200 Public Records
• 2020-07-02 Sold (MLS) $22,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $544 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.