15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #189 · Garnet, CA 92240

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 359 Days on market

Built 1977 $69/sqft · 66% above area $877/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Hidden Springs Country Club, an active 55+ community in Desert Hot Springs. This stylish 2 bed/2 bath home is situated on the 8th hole of the well maintained executive golf course, and boasts picturesque views of the course and surrounding hills. Enjoy the scenery from the patio fire pit or from your comfy living room which includes a fireplace for cooler desert nights. Off the living room is a spacious dining area with built in hutch. The well appointed kitchen has a pantry, newer refrigerator, and a breakfast bar for casual dining or prep space. An additional family room from the kitchen has sliding doors that access the large updated Trex deck, perfect for entertaining friends and family. There's yet an additional covered patio that is perfect for curling up with a good book, or enjoying your morning coffee. The primary bedroom has awesome views of Mt. San Jacinto and Mt. Gorgonio, and the attached bath has an updated shower, duel vanities, flooring, and plumbing. Other updates throughout the home include; AC and furnace system, Jeld-Wen duel pane windows, and water heater. Outside, beautiful updated vinyl siding and skirting, as well as newer gravel complete the picture. Community amenities include a pool and 2 spas, tennis and pickleball courts, large clubhouse and banquet room, gym, sauna, and shuffle board courts. There is even a dog park for your four-legged family members. This community, and especially this house, has everything you need for resort living at it's finest.

Key facts

• Built in hutch
• 8th hole golf course
• Patio fire pit

Tags

• 8TH HOLE GOLF COURSE
• PATIO FIRE PIT
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• BUILT IN HUTCH
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 6.0% in Garnet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#971 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, schools F, crime F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 515 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,885/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2095% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 359 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→6/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 359 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.69%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,000
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 66.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #265	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$45,000	$31	93
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #300	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$55,000	$38	89
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #237	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$40,000	$28	84
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #243	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$69,500	$52	81
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #277	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	1mo	$55,000	$36	77
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #104	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	15mo	$125,000	$87	76
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #283	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	15mo	$75,000	$56	71
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #191	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	17mo	$126,000	$94	70
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #253	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+12%)	6mo	$48,000	$30	64
67644 San Andreas St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,586 (+10%)	7mo	$275,000	$173	60
16160 Avenida Mirola	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	14mo	$318,000	$237	58
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #108	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-10%)	17mo	$95,000	$73	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $30,053
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $92,910
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92240

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 515
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $340/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$877
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,017

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $743	-5% $715	+0% $686	+5% $658	+10% $630
Rent	-10% $458	-5% $572	+0% $686	+5% $800	+10% $914
Rate	-1.0pp $737	-0.5pp $712	base $686	+0.5pp $660	+1.0pp $634

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15490 Avenida Rambla Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	44d	1	0.19mi
15490 Avenue Rambla Unit NA Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	24d	1	0.19mi
16087 Bubbling Wells Rd Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1850	$5,000	$2.70	44d	1	0.27mi
15123 Avenida Ramada Desert Hot Springs, CA	4.0	2.0	1745	$3,200	$1.83	18d	1	0.59mi
16111 Avenida Ramada Desert Hot Springs, CA	4.0	2.0	1773	$3,000	$1.69	44d	1	0.59mi
15300 Palm Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,800	$1.92	44d	1	0.99mi
13539 Quinta Way Desert Hot Springs, CA	4.0	2.0	1397	$3,500	$2.51	19d	1	1.10mi
13437 Cuando Way Desert Hot Springs, CA	4.0	2.5	1853	$3,200	$1.73	44d	1	1.12mi
13440 Quinta Way Unit 2 Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	1032	$2,000	$1.94	44d	1	1.16mi
68160 Calle Blanco Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,500	$1.88	44d	1	1.26mi
13235 Mountain View Rd Unit 2 Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	44d	1	1.28mi
13553 Avenida La Vis Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,495	$1.54	44d	1	1.28mi
14777 Palm Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	4.0	2.0	1573	$1,995	$1.27	44d	1	1.30mi
12920 Maui Way Desert Hot Springs, CA	4.0	2.0	1570	$3,100	$1.97	44d	1	1.37mi
12920 Inaja St Unit C Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,895	$1.90	44d	1	1.38mi
66629 Joseph Way Unit B Desert Hot Springs, CA	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,900	$2.42	24d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $877 · $10,524/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 359 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 356 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 355 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 354 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 351 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,900 Active 350 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,900 Active 349 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,900 Active 348 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 347 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    price $99,900 1516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1516 chars)

    Welcome to Hidden Springs Country Club, an active 55+ community in Desert Hot Springs. This stylish 2 bed/2 bath home is situated on the 8th hole of the well maintained executive golf course, and boasts picturesque views of the course and surrounding hills. Enjoy the scenery from the patio fire pit or from your comfy living room which includes a fireplace for cooler desert nights. Off the living room is a spacious dining area with built in hutch. The well appointed kitchen has a pantry, newer refrigerator, and a breakfast bar for casual dining or prep space. An additional family room from the kitchen has sliding doors that access the large updated Trex deck, perfect for entertaining friends and family. There's yet an additional covered patio that is perfect for curling up with a good book, or enjoying your morning coffee. The primary bedroom has awesome views of Mt. San Jacinto and Mt. Gorgonio, and the attached bath has an updated shower, duel vanities, flooring, and plumbing. Other updates throughout the home include; AC and furnace system, Jeld-Wen duel pane windows, and water heater. Outside, beautiful updated vinyl siding and skirting, as well as newer gravel complete the picture. Community amenities include a pool and 2 spas, tennis and pickleball courts, large clubhouse and banquet room, gym, sauna, and shuffle board courts. There is even a dog park for your four-legged family members. This community, and especially this house, has everything you need for resort living at it's finest.

11. 2026-02-03
    price $114,900 1516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1516 chars)

    Welcome to Hidden Springs Country Club, an active 55+ community in Desert Hot Springs. This stylish 2 bed/2 bath home is situated on the 8th hole of the well maintained executive golf course, and boasts picturesque views of the course and surrounding hills. Enjoy the scenery from the patio fire pit or from your comfy living room which includes a fireplace for cooler desert nights. Off the living room is a spacious dining area with built in hutch. The well appointed kitchen has a pantry, newer refrigerator, and a breakfast bar for casual dining or prep space. An additional family room from the kitchen has sliding doors that access the large updated Trex deck, perfect for entertaining friends and family. There's yet an additional covered patio that is perfect for curling up with a good book, or enjoying your morning coffee. The primary bedroom has awesome views of Mt. San Jacinto and Mt. Gorgonio, and the attached bath has an updated shower, duel vanities, flooring, and plumbing. Other updates throughout the home include; AC and furnace system, Jeld-Wen duel pane windows, and water heater. Outside, beautiful updated vinyl siding and skirting, as well as newer gravel complete the picture. Community amenities include a pool and 2 spas, tennis and pickleball courts, large clubhouse and banquet room, gym, sauna, and shuffle board courts. There is even a dog park for your four-legged family members. This community, and especially this house, has everything you need for resort living at it's finest.

12. 2025-12-17
    status Active 1516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1516 chars)

    Welcome to Hidden Springs Country Club, an active 55+ community in Desert Hot Springs. This stylish 2 bed/2 bath home is situated on the 8th hole of the well maintained executive golf course, and boasts picturesque views of the course and surrounding hills. Enjoy the scenery from the patio fire pit or from your comfy living room which includes a fireplace for cooler desert nights. Off the living room is a spacious dining area with built in hutch. The well appointed kitchen has a pantry, newer refrigerator, and a breakfast bar for casual dining or prep space. An additional family room from the kitchen has sliding doors that access the large updated Trex deck, perfect for entertaining friends and family. There's yet an additional covered patio that is perfect for curling up with a good book, or enjoying your morning coffee. The primary bedroom has awesome views of Mt. San Jacinto and Mt. Gorgonio, and the attached bath has an updated shower, duel vanities, flooring, and plumbing. Other updates throughout the home include; AC and furnace system, Jeld-Wen duel pane windows, and water heater. Outside, beautiful updated vinyl siding and skirting, as well as newer gravel complete the picture. Community amenities include a pool and 2 spas, tennis and pickleball courts, large clubhouse and banquet room, gym, sauna, and shuffle board courts. There is even a dog park for your four-legged family members. This community, and especially this house, has everything you need for resort living at it's finest.

13. 2025-06-16
    listed $119,900 Active 1516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1516 chars)

    Welcome to Hidden Springs Country Club, an active 55+ community in Desert Hot Springs. This stylish 2 bed/2 bath home is situated on the 8th hole of the well maintained executive golf course, and boasts picturesque views of the course and surrounding hills. Enjoy the scenery from the patio fire pit or from your comfy living room which includes a fireplace for cooler desert nights. Off the living room is a spacious dining area with built in hutch. The well appointed kitchen has a pantry, newer refrigerator, and a breakfast bar for casual dining or prep space. An additional family room from the kitchen has sliding doors that access the large updated Trex deck, perfect for entertaining friends and family. There's yet an additional covered patio that is perfect for curling up with a good book, or enjoying your morning coffee. The primary bedroom has awesome views of Mt. San Jacinto and Mt. Gorgonio, and the attached bath has an updated shower, duel vanities, flooring, and plumbing. Other updates throughout the home include; AC and furnace system, Jeld-Wen duel pane windows, and water heater. Outside, beautiful updated vinyl siding and skirting, as well as newer gravel complete the picture. Community amenities include a pool and 2 spas, tennis and pickleball courts, large clubhouse and banquet room, gym, sauna, and shuffle board courts. There is even a dog park for your four-legged family members. This community, and especially this house, has everything you need for resort living at it's finest.

14. 2009-07-14
    historical
15. 2009-06-07
    historical
16. 2009-05-05
    price $54,500
17. 2009-04-29
    price $54,500
18. 2009-04-13
    listed $59,900
19. 2009-03-06
    price $59,900
20. 2009-01-08
    listed $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 123.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 2 d/yr ≥111°F today · 6 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$340
• − Insurance: −$1,967
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,770
• − Management: −$2,770
• − HOA: −$10,524
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $7,752
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,860
• After-tax cash flow: $6,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Garnet

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #971
• US rank: #24574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living D Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garnet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,615
• Household income: $54,023
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 23% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.10%
• Current HPI: 418.4691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+53.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $99,900 TheMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $114,900 TheMLS
• 2025-12-17 Relisted — TheMLS
• 2025-06-16 Listed $119,900 TheMLS
• 2009-07-14 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2009-06-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-05-05 Price Changed $54,500 CRMLS
• 2009-04-29 Price Changed $54,500 GPSMLS
• 2009-04-13 Listed $59,900 CRMLS
• 2009-03-06 Price Changed $59,900 GPSMLS
• 2009-01-08 Listed $65,000 GPSMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $340 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.