302 9th St · Gothenburg, NE 69138

$125,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,939 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1915 7,000 sqft lot $64/sqft · 15% below area Est $173k · 28% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What an excellent opportunity to personalize this property. Situated on a spacious corner lot with sidewalks, this 5-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features a main-level bedroom, bathroom, and laundry room. Conveniently located just blocks from downtown and main street shopping. Recent updates include a newer roof, furnace, and automatic sprinkler system. This property offers a great opportunity for customization to suit your needs.

Key facts

• Main-level bedroom
• Recent updates
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MAIN-LEVEL BEDROOM
• AUTOMATIC SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• RECENT UPDATES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($654/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in Gothenburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NE, #854 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Gothenburg Public Schools (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #74 of 111 in NE (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 61 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dawson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $116,250 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,557
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -27.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1111 Lake Ave	0.22mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,989 (+3%)	12mo	$190,000	$96	67
1302 Ave. D	0.19mi	5/3.0	1,812 (-6%)	8mo	$175,000	$97	65
120 9th Stfeet	0.10mi	5/2.0	1,768 (-9%)	16mo	$135,000	$76	63
702 Washington St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (+4%)	12mo	$165,500	$82	58
1315 B Ave	0.19mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,142 (+10%)	9mo	$142,900	$67	57
1310 Lake Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,140 (+10%)	6mo	$155,000	$72	56
1619 Lake Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,120 (+9%)	20mo	$149,900	$71	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-16,765
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-10,055
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69138

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $98	+0% $55	+5% $11	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-37	-5% $9	+0% $55	+5% $100	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $86	base $55	+0.5pp $22	+1.0pp $-11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-04-18
    price $125,000 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to personalize this property. Situated on a spacious corner lot with sidewalks, this 5-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features a main-level bedroom, bathroom, and laundry room. Conveniently located just blocks from downtown and main street shopping. Recent updates include a newer roof, furnace, and automatic sprinkler system. This property offers a great opportunity for customization to suit your needs.

18. 2026-04-05
    listed $140,000 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    What an excellent opportunity to personalize this property. Situated on a spacious corner lot with sidewalks, this 5-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features a main-level bedroom, bathroom, and laundry room. Conveniently located just blocks from downtown and main street shopping. Recent updates include a newer roof, furnace, and automatic sprinkler system. This property offers a great opportunity for customization to suit your needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,116
• − Management: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gothenburg Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3171100
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,914
• Composite: 40.13/100
• National rank: #3796
• State rank: #74 of 111 in NE

Livability — Gothenburg

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #854

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gothenburg, NE
• Population (ZIP): 4,304

Population outlook (Dawson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,318 people
• By 2030: 22,912 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 22,097 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 21,358 · -8.4%
• By 2075: 19,801 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 17,647 · -24.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dawson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.6) · D 24.7% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -49.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.6 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+45.0 2012: R+41.8 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.40%
• Current HPI: 203.5948
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $125,000 GMNMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $140,000 GMNMLS