CAMILLA Plan · Fairhope, AL 36532

$306,400

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

We're excited to introduce the Camilla floorplan, now available in our new Fairhope community, Cottonwood Estates. This charming, cottage-style home offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,504 square feet of well-designed living space-all on one level. Perfect for modern living, it also includes a one-car garage for convenience. The heart of this home is its open concept living area, where the kitchen, dining, and living spaces flow together effortlessly, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen overlooks the dining area and great room, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Designed for privacy, the split-bedroom layout places the primary bedroom at one end of

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Laundry room
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• ENSUITE BATH
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• SMART HOME CONNECT TECHNOLOGY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $306,400

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered garage/parking space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: New construction plan; Located at 11980 Volga Dr, Fairhope, AL 36532
• Exterior features: Plan home (Camilla)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,504 total living area)

🏗️ New construction. The $306,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $317,344.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-735/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.8% in Fairhope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J Larry Newton School (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C+, #74 of 627 statewide, top 12%, 827 students, 50% FRL); Fairhope Middle School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade A-, #3 of 257 statewide, top 1%, 777 students, 33% FRL); Fairhope High School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,629 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 633 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $269,856 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,344
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16267 Tigris Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	9mo	$269,000	$179	85
16207 Tigris Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	9mo	$312,036	$207	83
16199 Tigris Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,504 (0%)	10mo	$307,400	$204	82
16313 Tigris Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,417 (-6%)	7mo	$295,450	$209	78
16255 Tigris Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-6%)	4mo	$304,461	$216	77
16348 Tigris Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (-4%)	9mo	$290,675	$201	76
16221 Tigris Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,417 (-6%)	7mo	$302,961	$214	75
16300 Tigris Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (-4%)	10mo	$271,900	$188	73
16250 Tigris Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-5%)	7mo	$301,037	$211	72
16817 Tigris Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	2mo	$295,424	$231	66
16291 Tigris Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	5mo	$289,900	$226	59
16233 Tigris Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-15%)	9mo	$276,900	$216	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-55,418
• Equity at exit: $47,317

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-53,670
• Equity at exit: $27,438

Cash invested: $88,856 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,664
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$397 /mo · $4,760/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,776

Max offer price $308,484

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $48	+0% $-61	+5% $-171	+10% $-281
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-168	+0% $-61	+5% $45	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $19	base $-61	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,336
• Closing costs: $9,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16216 Tigris Dr Fairhope, AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$3,700	$2.61	15d	1	0.20mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $306,400 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $306,400 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $306,400 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $306,400 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $306,400 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $306,400 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-14
   listed $306,400 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,776
• − Property taxes: −$4,760
• − Insurance: −$1,587
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,591
• − Management: −$2,591
• − Depreciation: −$9,232
• Taxable loss: −$6,153
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Fairhope, AL, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Fairhope

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 38,108
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,108
• Household income: $89,694
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 665.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.08%
• Current HPI: 299.6643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B