552 W Avenue J4 · Lancaster, CA 93534

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1952 6,655 sqft lot ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Subject property is a detached single-story residence located in West Lancaster on a large corner lot. The home contains approximately 1,802 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and includes an attached 2-car garage. Block wall fencing surrounds portions of the property. The home has sustained significant fire damage to both the interior and exterior and will require repairs and renovation. Ideal for a full rehab or rebuild project. Spacious lot and desirable corner location provide strong upside potential once restored. Please contact listing agent for property condition and listing details and to obtain access to show property.

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Spacious lot
• Block wall fencing

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• BLOCK WALL FENCING
• SPACIOUS LOT
• DESIRABLE CORNER LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total of 1 unit; Parcel number 3131026022; Living area source: Assessor's data; Lot size source: Assessor's data; Elevation units in feet; No accessory dwelling unit (ADU)
• HOA & community: Street lighting; Urban setting; Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two parking spaces total
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-family house; Single-story; Entry at main level
• Construction: Year built source: Assessor; No common walls
• Exterior features: Corner lot; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (main level)
• Interior features: One-level home; Main floor primary bedroom; Family room; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,638/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 3232% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,009 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.47%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $472,124
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44309 Date Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,777 (-1%)	7mo	$400,000	$225	80
43639 Elm	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,793 (-0%)	0mo	$480,000	$268	68
601 W Avenue J9	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,659 (-8%)	4mo	$380,000	$229	65
610 W Ave J8	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-11%)	8mo	$400,000	$250	63
44344 Elm Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-13%)	6mo	$410,000	$262	62
521 W Avenue J14	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,897 (+5%)	1mo	$500,000	$264	62
517 W Avenue J10	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,619 (-10%)	1mo	$345,000	$213	62
43708 Fern	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,813 (+1%)	4mo	$400,000	$221	57
44516 Fern	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-15%)	1mo	$405,000	$264	55
44140 Lightwood	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-11%)	3mo	$469,000	$293	49
43851 Fern Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,537 (-15%)	3mo	$435,000	$283	47
43729 Heaton	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-13%)	1mo	$400,000	$255	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $296
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $24,579
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93534

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,638 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,803

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
504 Heyer St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,600	$1.67	1d	1	0.45mi
44118 Kingtree Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,600	$1.95	1d	1	0.60mi
519 W Avenue J15 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1793	$2,600	$1.45	1d	1	0.68mi
44021 3rd St E Unit 44021 Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1465	$3,500	$2.39	1d	1	0.79mi
44021 3rd St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1465	$2,900	$1.98	20d	1	0.79mi
44119 Kirkland Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,750	$2.05	12d	1	0.83mi
44538 2nd St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,380	$1.89	1d	1	0.84mi
44514 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,646	$2.10	1d	1	0.86mi
661 W Lancaster Blvd Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,959	$1.22	1d	1	0.86mi
44302 Kirkland Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,250	$1.40	1d	1	0.90mi
233 E Nugent St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,599	$1.57	1d	1	0.91mi
1151 W Avenue J14 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1257	$2,599	$2.07	1d	1	0.93mi
44283 Raysack Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1282	$2,400	$1.87	11d	1	1.02mi
44928 Kingtree Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,350	$1.75	1d	1	1.10mi
44107 Rodin Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1568	$3,000	$1.91	3d	1	1.20mi
1341 W Kildare St Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	1392	$3,000	$2.16	1d	1	1.23mi
44946 3rd St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1256	$2,395	$1.91	15d	1	1.25mi
718 E Avenue J4 Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,885	$1.66	1d	1	1.35mi
44836 Lorimer Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,500	$1.73	1d	1	1.38mi
619 W Avenue H13 Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,800	$1.53	3d	1	1.42mi
44961 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	1d	1	1.43mi
45354 Gadsden Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	1.0	1388	$2,943	$2.12	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    status Pending 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Subject property is a detached single-story residence located in West Lancaster on a large corner lot. The home contains approximately 1,802 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and includes an attached 2-car garage. Block wall fencing surrounds portions of the property. The home has sustained significant fire damage to both the interior and exterior and will require repairs and renovation. Ideal for a full rehab or rebuild project. Spacious lot and desirable corner location provide strong upside potential once restored. Please contact listing agent for property condition and listing details and to obtain access to show property.

16. 2026-04-09
    price $199,900 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Subject property is a detached single-story residence located in West Lancaster on a large corner lot. The home contains approximately 1,802 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and includes an attached 2-car garage. Block wall fencing surrounds portions of the property. The home has sustained significant fire damage to both the interior and exterior and will require repairs and renovation. Ideal for a full rehab or rebuild project. Spacious lot and desirable corner location provide strong upside potential once restored. Please contact listing agent for property condition and listing details and to obtain access to show property.

17. 2026-04-08
    listed $209,900 Active 644-char remark

    Show marketing remark (644 chars)

    Subject property is a detached single-story residence located in West Lancaster on a large corner lot. The home contains approximately 1,802 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and includes an attached 2-car garage. Block wall fencing surrounds portions of the property. The home has sustained significant fire damage to both the interior and exterior and will require repairs and renovation. Ideal for a full rehab or rebuild project. Spacious lot and desirable corner location provide strong upside potential once restored. Please contact listing agent for property condition and listing details and to obtain access to show property.

18. 2026-03-10
    listed $209,900 Active
19. 2005-07-24
    soldstatus $275,000 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    What a jewel! This sprawling single story home has been so well maintained, you have to see it to appreciate it! 3 good sized bedrooms, 1.5 baths, indoor laundry, and an oversized family room with wet bar and fireplace. This home is a must see for any one who wants it all at a great price!

20. 2005-07-21
    soldstatus $275,000
21. 2005-06-23
    listed $275,000 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    What a jewel! This sprawling single story home has been so well maintained, you have to see it to appreciate it! 3 good sized bedrooms, 1.5 baths, indoor laundry, and an oversized family room with wet bar and fireplace. This home is a must see for any one who wants it all at a great price!

22. 2005-06-21
    historical
23. 2005-05-03
    listed $280,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,835 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,835 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,533
• − Management: −$2,533
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $4,844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,163
• After-tax cash flow: $6,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620880
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #13028
• State rank: #1161 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,430
• Household income: $61,866
• Rent vs Own: 62.7% rent · 37.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3232.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% Black 27% White 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.73%
• Current HPI: 395.3098
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.92%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $199,900 AVMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $209,900 AVMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $209,900 CRMLS
• 2005-07-24 Sold (MLS) $275,000 AVMLS
• 2005-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-23 Listed $275,000 AVMLS
• 2005-06-21 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2005-05-03 Listed $280,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,835 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.