10012 Brush Arbor Ln NW · Seabeck, WA 98380

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1949 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Selling As Is. Look at county records and title report. For this price you take it on and buy the lot next door. Truly a special place but has issues. Get in contact with your agent and do your research. Calling all nature lovers! If you’ve never driven past the estuary in Seabeck where world renowned photographers camp out to take epic photos of bald eagles then I highly recommend you do. Home sold AS IS. The septic has no records. A rare opportunity to own two lots on the banks of a serene estuary near the Hood Canal—one with an existing home site and the other with private tidelands. This property offers endless potential to create your dream waterfront retreat after you demo

Key facts

• Existing home site
• Two lots
• Private tidelands

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• EXISTING HOME SITE
• PRIVATE TIDELANDS
• WATERFRONT RETREAT
• TRANQUIL VIEWS
• WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $900 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 2.1% in Seabeck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#366 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Kitsap School District (urban): math 55% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #49 of 291 in WA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cougar Valley Elementary (410 students, 36% FRL); Central Kitsap High School (1,659 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1,294 units permitted in Kitsap County in 2024 (302 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kitsap County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $165k implies a 371% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.39%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,217,919
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8900 NW Pioneer Rd	0.29mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,319 (+1%)	14mo	$1,225,000	$929	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $30,616
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $100,519
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98380

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,511 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,794/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $994	-5% $947	+0% $900	+5% $854	+10% $807
Rent	-10% $702	-5% $801	+0% $900	+5% $1,000	+10% $1,099
Rate	-1.0pp $984	-0.5pp $942	base $900	+0.5pp $858	+1.0pp $814

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-04-15
    status Pending
13. 2026-03-10
    status Active
14. 2025-11-18
    status Pending
15. 2025-11-15
    listed $165,000 Active
16. 2012-07-31
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold
17. 2012-07-17
    status Pending
18. 2012-07-03
    status Active
19. 2012-06-26
    status Pending Inspection
20. 2012-06-15
    status Active
21. 2012-06-09
    status Pending Inspection
22. 2012-05-22
    status Active
23. 2012-05-07
    status Pending Inspection
24. 2012-03-26
    listed $50,000 Active
25. 2008-12-23
    soldstatus $20,000 Sold
26. 2008-12-23
    soldstatus $20,000
27. 2008-12-03
    historical
28. 2008-12-02
    status
29. 2008-12-02
    historical
30. 2008-10-30
    price $40,700
31. 2008-09-29
    price $42,800
32. 2008-09-29
    status
33. 2008-09-18
    historical
34. 2008-08-01
    price $45,000
35. 2008-05-31
    status
36. 2008-05-16
    historical
37. 2008-02-28
    listed $110,000
38. 1998-10-07
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,794 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,794 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,137
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,794
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $8,653
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,077
• After-tax cash flow: $8,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Kitsap School District
• NCES district ID: 5301080
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $64,825
• Composite: 54.87/100
• National rank: #2813
• State rank: #49 of 291 in WA

Livability — Seabeck

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #13916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seabeck, WA
• Population (ZIP): 5,187

Population outlook (Kitsap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 277,525 people
• By 2030: 285,040 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 294,957 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 300,622 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 315,580 · +13.7%
• By 2100: 304,340 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Portuguese 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kitsap

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.9) · D 58.8% · R 37.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.9 2020: D+18.1 2016: D+11.6 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.17%
• Current HPI: 398.8004
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+135.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Listed $165,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-31 Sold (MLS) $35,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-03 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-15 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-22 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-26 Listed $50,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-23 Sold (MLS) $20,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-03 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-02 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-02 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-30 Price Changed $40,700 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-29 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-29 Price Changed $42,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-18 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-01 Price Changed $45,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-31 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-16 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-28 Listed $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,794 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.