16878 Lilac St · Detroit, MI 48221

$130,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1928 3,049 sqft lot $100/sqft · 14% above area Est $181k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD home featuring low-maintenance vinyl siding and fresh updates throughout. Interior boasts new carpeting across all living spaces, creating a warm and inviting feel. The primary bedroom includes a convenient half bath, complemented by two additional well-sized bedrooms. Enjoy a spacious living room and separate dining area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The brand-new kitchen is equipped with modern finishes and stainless steel appliances, offering both style and functionality. Move-in ready and thoughtfully updated—this home is a must-see! Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD homes are sold AS-IS. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Key facts

• New carpeting
• Brand-new kitchen
• Spacious living room

Tags

• LOW-MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING
• NEW CARPETING
• PRIMARY BEDROOM HALF BATH
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.99%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,019
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -28.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16659 Lilac St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	1mo	$40,000	$31	93
16820 Santa Rosa Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-6%)	0mo	$10,000	$8	78
16688 Turner St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,412 (+9%)	6mo	$50,000	$35	73
17510 Monica St	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,331 (+3%)	7mo	$215,000	$162	72
16890 Monica St	0.16mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,359 (+5%)	7mo	$165,000	$121	72
16273 Woodingham Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,206 (-7%)	7mo	$10,000	$8	67
17133 Wisconsin St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,351 (+4%)	7mo	$164,900	$122	61
17600 Santa Barbara Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,446 (+12%)	2mo	$145,000	$100	56
6433 Globe St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+4%)	7mo	$100,000	$74	54
17160 Wisconsin St	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,438 (+11%)	5mo	$207,000	$144	53
17421 Quincy St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,474 (+14%)	2mo	$234,500	$159	51
15703 Northlawn St	0.75mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,365 (+5%)	5mo	$70,000	$51	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,081
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $22,219
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48221

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,408 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,063

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $310	+0% $273	+5% $236	+10% $199
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $217	+0% $273	+5% $328	+10% $384
Rate	-1.0pp $338	-0.5pp $306	base $273	+0.5pp $239	+1.0pp $205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Tuller St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	17d	1	0.06mi
17163 Prairie St Unit 1B Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1317	$1,350	$1.03	44d	1	0.16mi
17147 Monica St Unit 2 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	25d	1	0.19mi
17145 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	19d	1	0.23mi
16255 Lilac St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,394	$1.06	18d	1	0.27mi
16582 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1314	$1,399	$1.06	18d	1	0.28mi
17368 Woodingham Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	44d	1	0.31mi
17159 Northlawn St Unit 17161 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1122	$975	$0.87	6d	1	0.38mi
17195 Northlawn St #2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	25d	1	0.39mi
17195 Northlawn St #1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	21d	1	0.39mi
17215 Warrington Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1015	$2,000	$1.97	44d	1	0.40mi
17551 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1036	$1,095	$1.06	44d	1	0.42mi
17530 Roselawn St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	25d	1	0.45mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	44d	1	0.47mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	25d	1	0.48mi
16546 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1577	$1,500	$0.95	44d	1	0.54mi
15771 Turner St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,049	$1.05	44d	1	0.61mi
16183 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1370	$1,400	$1.02	44d	1	0.62mi
16834 Fairfield St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1516	$1,363	$0.90	25d	1	0.62mi
16230 Indiana St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	19d	1	0.62mi
7350 Globe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	4d	1	0.64mi
15791 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1792	$1,100	$0.61	44d	1	0.70mi
16889 Washburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,100	$0.85	18d	1	0.75mi
16934 Ilene St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1516	$1,400	$0.92	21d	1	0.78mi
15777 Wisconsin St Unit 77 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	6d	1	0.78mi
15457 Cloverlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,275	$0.85	25d	1	0.79mi
15765 Washburn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1093	$950	$0.87	44d	1	0.95mi
15906 Alden St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	17d	1	0.96mi
16174 Princeton St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	44d	1	0.99mi
16174 Princeton St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	20d	1	0.99mi
2521 W McNichols Rd Unit B2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	44d	1	1.06mi
17540 Pinehurst St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	44d	1	1.07mi
19031 Livernois Unit F Detroit, MI	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,135	$1.94	44d	1	1.08mi
15708 Birwood St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1255	$1,100	$0.88	6d	1	1.10mi
18935 Indiana St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,523	$1.22	6d	1	1.15mi
15512 Mendota St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	931	$1,200	$1.29	6d	1	1.16mi
15512 Mendota St Apt 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	1.16mi
15345 Parkside St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,300	$1.13	44d	1	1.16mi
16927 Inverness St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	897	$1,650	$1.84	17d	1	1.21mi
15760 Monte Vista St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $152,000 Active 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    HUD home featuring low-maintenance vinyl siding and fresh updates throughout. Interior boasts new carpeting across all living spaces, creating a warm and inviting feel. The primary bedroom includes a convenient half bath, complemented by two additional well-sized bedrooms. Enjoy a spacious living room and separate dining area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The brand-new kitchen is equipped with modern finishes and stainless steel appliances, offering both style and functionality. Move-in ready and thoughtfully updated - this home is a must-see! Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD homes are sold AS-IS. Equal Housing Opportunity.

16. 2026-04-17
    listed $152,000 Active 691-char remark

    Show marketing remark (691 chars)

    HUD home featuring low-maintenance vinyl siding and fresh updates throughout. Interior boasts new carpeting across all living spaces, creating a warm and inviting feel. The primary bedroom includes a convenient half bath, complemented by two additional well-sized bedrooms. Enjoy a spacious living room and separate dining area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The brand-new kitchen is equipped with modern finishes and stainless steel appliances, offering both style and functionality. Move-in ready and thoughtfully updated - this home is a must-see! Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD homes are sold AS-IS. Equal Housing Opportunity.

17. 2024-01-03
    soldstatus $138,500
18. 2023-12-19
    soldstatus $138,500 Sold
19. 2023-12-19
    soldstatus $138,500 Closed
20. 2023-11-03
    status Pending
21. 2023-11-03
    status Pending
22. 2023-10-27
    listed $143,500 Active
23. 2023-10-27
    listed $143,500 Active
24. 2005-04-08
    soldstatus $64,000
25. 2000-03-28
    soldstatus $23,000
26. 2000-03-28
    soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,623 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 30.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,352
• − Management: −$1,352
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,235
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$296
• After-tax cash flow: $2,977/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 41,392
• Household income: $57,878
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -433.14%
• Current HPI: 280.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+560.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $152,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $152,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $138,500 Public Records
• 2023-12-19 Sold (MLS) $138,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-12-19 Sold (MLS) $138,500 REALCOMP
• 2023-11-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-03 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-27 Listed $143,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-27 Listed $143,500 REALCOMP
• 2005-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,244 · -50.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.