16878 Lilac St · Detroit, MI 48221 2938

$99,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1928 Fair condition 3,049 sqft lot $76/sqft · 13% below area Est $181k · 45% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD home featuring low-maintenance vinyl siding and fresh updates throughout. Interior boasts new carpeting across all living spaces, creating a warm and inviting feel. The primary bedroom includes a convenient half bath, complemented by two additional well-sized bedrooms. Enjoy a spacious living room and separate dining area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The brand-new kitchen is equipped with modern finishes and stainless steel appliances, offering both style and functionality. Move-in ready and thoughtfully updated - this home is a must-see! Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD homes are sold AS-IS. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Key facts

• New carpeting
• Brand-new kitchen
• Spacious living room

Tags

• LOW-MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING
• NEW CARPETING
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mary Mcleod Bethune Elementarymiddle School (706 students, 91% FRL); Mumford High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 889 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools at 89% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 67d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.05%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,345
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -45.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16659 Lilac St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	3mo	$40,000	$31	91
16820 Santa Rosa Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-6%)	2mo	$10,000	$8	77
16596 Santa Rosa Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,338 (+3%)	0mo	$158,000	$118	75
16688 Turner St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,412 (+9%)	7mo	$50,000	$35	72
16183 Lilac St	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,224 (-6%)	1mo	$140,000	$114	71
17510 Monica St	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,331 (+3%)	8mo	$215,000	$162	71
18300 Prairie St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,340 (+3%)	2mo	$144,900	$108	60
17136 Birchcrest Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+11%)	1mo	$135,000	$94	55
17600 Santa Barbara Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,446 (+12%)	4mo	$145,000	$100	55
17160 Wisconsin St	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,438 (+11%)	7mo	$207,000	$144	52
17421 Quincy St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,474 (+14%)	4mo	$234,500	$159	50
15703 Northlawn St	0.75mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,365 (+5%)	6mo	$70,000	$51	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $34,121
• Equity at exit: $44,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $90,512
• Equity at exit: $68,602

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 71 active · 43 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.9 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $150,000 ($112/sqft)
• Median days on market: 67 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 48221 2938

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,031/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $924

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $404	-5% $376	+0% $348	+5% $320	+10% $292
Rent	-10% $240	-5% $294	+0% $348	+5% $402	+10% $455
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $373	base $348	+0.5pp $322	+1.0pp $296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Tuller St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	66d	1	0.06mi
17151 San Juan Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1746	$1,690	$0.97	38d	1	0.14mi
17163 Prairie St Unit 1B Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1317	$1,350	$1.03	93d	1	0.16mi
17147 Monica St Unit 2 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	73d	1	0.19mi
17145 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	67d	1	0.23mi
16255 Lilac St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,394	$1.06	66d	1	0.27mi
16582 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1314	$1,399	$1.06	66d	1	0.28mi
17127 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1829	$1,675	$0.92	24d	1	0.31mi
17368 Woodingham Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	93d	1	0.31mi
17159 Northlawn St Unit 17161 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1122	$975	$0.87	54d	1	0.38mi
17195 Northlawn St #1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	69d	1	0.39mi
17195 Northlawn St #2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	73d	1	0.39mi
17215 Warrington Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1015	$2,000	$1.97	38d	1	0.40mi
17551 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1036	$1,095	$1.06	38d	1	0.42mi
17530 Roselawn St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	73d	1	0.45mi
16219 Northlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	42d	1	0.46mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	38d	1	0.48mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	73d	1	0.48mi
17606 Roselawn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	38d	1	0.51mi
16546 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1577	$1,500	$0.95	93d	1	0.54mi
15771 Turner St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,049	$1.05	93d	1	0.61mi
16183 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1370	$1,400	$1.02	93d	1	0.62mi
16834 Fairfield St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1516	$1,363	$0.90	73d	1	0.62mi
16230 Indiana St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	67d	1	0.62mi
7350 Globe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1191	$1,400	$1.18	22d	1	0.64mi
15791 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1792	$1,100	$0.61	93d	1	0.70mi
15710 Northlawn St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1128	$1,175	$1.04	9d	1	0.73mi
16889 Washburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,100	$0.85	66d	1	0.75mi
15767 Holmur St Detroit, MI	4.0	1.5	1396	$1,600	$1.15	46d	1	0.76mi
16934 Ilene St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1516	$1,400	$0.92	69d	1	0.78mi
15777 Wisconsin St Unit 77 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	54d	1	0.78mi
15457 Cloverlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,275	$0.85	73d	1	0.79mi
15755 Fairfield St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	942	$1,200	$1.27	18d	1	0.87mi
15765 Washburn St Unit 15767 Washburn Upper Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1093	$895	$0.82	16d	1	0.95mi
15906 Alden St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	66d	1	0.96mi
16194 Princeton St Unit 16196 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,380	$1.25	23d	1	0.98mi
16174 Princeton St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	93d	1	0.99mi
16174 Princeton St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	68d	1	0.99mi
2521 W McNichols Rd Apt 201 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	10d	1	1.06mi
2521 W McNichols Rd Unit B2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	93d	1	1.06mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne and one-half storiesGround-level entry with steps
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Paved road accessLot approximately 0.07 acres (30 x 100)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)No cooling
• Interior features: Finished basement

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $99,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $99,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $99,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $99,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $99,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $99,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $99,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $99,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    remarks 691-char remark
13. 2026-07-23
    listing id $99,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-07-23
    days on market $99,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-07-22
    days on market $99,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-07-21
    days on market $99,000 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-07-20
    days on market $99,000 Active 94 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $99,000 Active 92 DOM
19. 2026-07-18
    days on market $99,000 Active 91 DOM
20. 2026-07-16
    days on market $99,000 Active 90 DOM
21. 2026-07-15
    days on market $99,000 Active 89 DOM
22. 2026-07-14
    days on market $99,000 Active 88 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $99,000 Active 87 DOM
24. 2026-07-13
    days on market $99,000 Active 86 DOM
25. 2026-07-11
    days on market $99,000 Active 85 DOM
26. 2026-07-10
    days on market $99,000 Active 84 DOM
27. 2026-07-09
    days on market $99,000 Active 83 DOM
28. 2026-07-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
30. 2026-07-06
    days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
31. 2026-07-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 78 DOM
32. 2026-07-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
33. 2026-07-02
    price $99,000 Active 76 DOM
34. 2026-07-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 76 DOM
35. 2026-07-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 75 DOM
36. 2026-06-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 74 DOM
37. 2026-06-29
    days on market $130,000 Active 73 DOM
38. 2026-06-28
    days on market $130,000 Active 72 DOM
39. 2026-06-27
    days on market $130,000 Active 71 DOM
40. 2026-06-26
    days on market $130,000 Active 70 DOM
41. 2026-06-24
    days on market $130,000 Active 68 DOM
42. 2026-06-22
    days on market $130,000 Active 66 DOM
43. 2026-06-21
    days on market $130,000 Active 65 DOM
44. 2026-06-18
    days on market $130,000 Active 62 DOM
45. 2026-06-17
    days on market $130,000 Active 61 DOM
46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $130,000 Active 59 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $130,000 Active 57 DOM
48. 2026-06-13
    days on market $130,000 Active 56 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $130,000 Active 53 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 52 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,031 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,031 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,031
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,795
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$671
• After-tax cash flow: $3,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,480–$19,440 screening

The home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed. Painting and landscaping would significantly enhance its value and appeal.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good Flooring carpet

Deferred maintenance Est. $500–$2,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the roof.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration and wear visible.
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown areas need trimming.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mary Mcleod Bethune Elementarymiddle School High Mumford High School F MI #481/713 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI

---

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne and one-half storiesGround-level entry with steps
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Paved road accessLot approximately 0.07 acres (30 x 100)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)No cooling
• Interior features: Finished basement

Price history

+465.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $130,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $130,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-17 Listed $152,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-17 Listed $152,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $138,500 Public Records
• 2023-12-19 Sold (MLS) $138,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-12-19 Sold (MLS) $138,500 REALCOMP
• 2023-11-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-03 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-10-27 Listed $143,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-27 Listed $143,500 REALCOMP
• 2005-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,031 · -19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.