416 E Elsie Ave · Canadian, TX 79014

$148,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 358 Days on market

Built 1980 $121/sqft · at area comps Est $186k · 20% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable home in Canadian! Enjoy the quiet, small-town life in this 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. Inside, you'll find an open-concept living area with natural light, hardwood floors, and an eye-catching rustic accent wall. The kitchen continues the theme with a unique eat-in island. There is also an attached dining area. All the bedrooms are spacious, and the 4th bedroom could double as a 2ND LIVING AREA, office, and more! You don't want to miss this home, call today for your private showing!

Key facts

• 2nd living area
• Rustic accent wall
• Attached dining area

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• RUSTIC ACCENT WALL
• UNIQUE EAT-IN ISLAND
• ATTACHED DINING AREA
• 2ND LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#316 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Canadian ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #229 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Hemphill County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,729 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.08%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,882
• List price: $148,000
• Delta: -20.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $20,496
• Equity at exit: $76,586

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $71,403
• Equity at exit: $126,514

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79014

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,127 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,909/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,262

Max offer price $129,220

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $148,000 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $148,000 Active 357 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $148,000 Active 356 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $148,000 Active 355 DOM
5. 2025-06-25
   price $148,000 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   Adorable home in Canadian! Enjoy the quiet, small-town life in this 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. Inside, you'll find an open-concept living area with natural light, hardwood floors, and an eye-catching rustic accent wall. The kitchen continues the theme with a unique eat-in island. There is also an attached dining area. All the bedrooms are spacious, and the 4th bedroom could double as a 2ND LIVING AREA, office, and more! You don't want to miss this home, call today for your private showing!

6. 2025-06-14
   price $155,000 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   Adorable home in Canadian! Enjoy the quiet, small-town life in this 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. Inside, you'll find an open-concept living area with natural light, hardwood floors, and an eye-catching rustic accent wall. The kitchen continues the theme with a unique eat-in island. There is also an attached dining area. All the bedrooms are spacious, and the 4th bedroom could double as a 2ND LIVING AREA, office, and more! You don't want to miss this home, call today for your private showing!

7. 2025-06-10
   listed $160,000 Active 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   Adorable home in Canadian! Enjoy the quiet, small-town life in this 4 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. Inside, you'll find an open-concept living area with natural light, hardwood floors, and an eye-catching rustic accent wall. The kitchen continues the theme with a unique eat-in island. There is also an attached dining area. All the bedrooms are spacious, and the 4th bedroom could double as a 2ND LIVING AREA, office, and more! You don't want to miss this home, call today for your private showing!

8. 2001-09-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,909 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,708 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$800/yr (+$67/mo · 41.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$1,909
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,082
• − Management: −$1,082
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable loss: −$3,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$932
• After-tax cash flow: $-344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canadian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,018
• Composite: 40.23/100
• National rank: #3776
• State rank: #229 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canadian

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #7053

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canadian, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,252

Population outlook (Hemphill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,290 people
• By 2030: 5,848 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 7,117 · +34.5%
• By 2050: 8,567 · +61.9%
• By 2075: 12,560 · +137.4%
• By 2100: 15,571 · +194.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Hemphill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.8% · R 87.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+74.4 2016: R+75.8 2012: R+73.3 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Current HPI: 114.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $148,000 AARMLS
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $155,000 AARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $160,000 AARMLS
• 2001-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,909 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.