126 Colonial Dr · Hernando, MS 38632

$199,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1966 2.40 ac lot $104/sqft · 46% below area Est $369k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious one-story home on 2.4 ACRES featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a functional and inviting layout. The living area offers plenty of natural light and flows into the kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space for everyday living. The primary suite provides a comfortable retreat, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, office space, or hobbies. Enjoy a large backyard with space for relaxing or entertaining, along with practical features throughout completing this home. One or more photo(s) was virtually staged.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Ample cabinet space
• 2.4 acre lot

Tags

• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 2.4 acres
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA or community details provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage that faces the front; Two garage/parking spaces (attached)
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Sewer: Other; Water: Other; Utilities: Other
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Assessor-provided living area; Entry level: Main
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built date from assessor (year not specified)
• Exterior features: Patio/porch described as Other; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (approx. 14 x 12); Second bedroom on main level (approx. 10 x 13); Third bedroom on main level (approx. 12 x 11); Fourth bedroom on main level (approx. 12 x 11)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Living room; Dining room
• Laundry & utility: No laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $876 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.2% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#44 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elem (779 students, 100% FRL); Hernando Middle School (math 75% / reading 57%, grade A-, #2 of 179 statewide, top 1%, 1,150 students, 100% FRL); Hernando High School (math 69% / reading 62%, grade B, #2 of 197 statewide, top 1%, 1,419 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Desoto County School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $93k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.76%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,110
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -45.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4616 S Highway 51	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,100 (+9%)	14mo	$365,000	$174	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $15,251
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $53,762
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38632

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,116/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $876

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,656

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
870 Green Acres Dr Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,300	$1.59	2d	1	1.10mi
2948 Mount Pleasant S Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,090	$1.34	17d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $199,999 Pending 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,999 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $199,999 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,950 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,950 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    price $249,950 563-char remark
11. 2026-04-27
    listed $292,500 Active 563-char remark
12. 2022-01-11
    price $2,055
13. 2020-06-22
    historical
14. 2020-05-20
    listed $224,900
15. 2013-11-04
    historical
16. 2012-11-15
    listed $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,116
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,654
• − Management: −$2,654
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $7,730
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,855
• After-tax cash flow: $8,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 31,374
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 31,374
• Household income: $93,583
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.49%
• Current HPI: 176.8843
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+48.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $199,999 MLSU
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $249,950 MLSU
• 2026-04-27 Listed $292,500 MLSU
• 2022-01-11 Price Changed $2,055 RENT.
• 2020-06-22 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2020-05-20 Listed $224,900 MLSU
• 2013-11-04 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2012-11-15 Listed $135,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,116 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.