4671 Shakespeare Rd · Lumberton, TX 77625

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2000 0.81 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This completely renovated 3bedroom 2bathroom home is nestled on nearly an acre, and delivers the perfect blend of peaceful country living and modern comfort, all just minutes from town. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully designed split floor plan with an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area filled with natural light and a warm, welcoming feel. The oversized primary suite is truly a retreat of its own, with plenty of space to unwind and an impressive walk-in closet. Every inch of this home has been updated, giving it a fresh, move-in-ready feel from top to bottom. Step outside and fall in love with the full-length covered back porch, the ultimate spot for entertaining guests,

Key facts

• Renovated home
• Walk-in closet
• Split floor plan

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULL-LENGTH COVERED BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Mobile home with land
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Chain link fencing; Storage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Microwave, Range; Carpet and laminate flooring; Ceiling fans; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kountze ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #506 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,127 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.60%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,414
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,298
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77625

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,531/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,559

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $365	-5% $310	+0% $255	+5% $200	+10% $144
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $180	+0% $255	+5% $329	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $353	-0.5pp $304	base $255	+0.5pp $204	+1.0pp $153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Stephens Ln Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1290	$1,650	$1.28	44d	1	0.85mi
5525 Westchase Loop Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$2,100	$1.52	13d	1	0.92mi
5670 Shadowbend Cir N Unit 104 Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	13d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $195,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-05-21
   listed $195,000 Active
3. 2025-03-11
   soldstatus
4. 2024-11-15
   soldstatus
5. 2024-11-15
   soldstatus
6. 2018-12-12
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,531 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,038/yr (+$170/mo · 133.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,531
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,806
• − Management: −$1,806
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$138
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$33
• After-tax cash flow: $3,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kountze ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825920
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,702
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6244
• State rank: #506 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 22,258
• Population (ZIP): 9,384

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.86%
• Current HPI: 148.6087
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $195,000 BBOR
• 2025-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,531 · -14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.