156 Navajo Trl · Gumlog, GA 30557

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Other · 235 Days on market

Built 2026 0.29 ac lot $122/sqft · 41% below area Est $187k · 41% under $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors/DIY, 2BR 2BA Barndo that has been completed on the outside. Septic and water has been installed. Rough-in plumbing has been done. Lake community with access to Pavillion, Dock and Boat Ramp! This one is a blank canvas for your vision!

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 234 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.7% in Gumlog — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stephens County (rural): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #74 of 174 in GA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (567 students, 75% FRL); Stephens County Middle School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #243 of 470 statewide, top 53%, 860 students, 75% FRL); Stephens County High School (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #175 of 424 statewide, top 42%, 1,142 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Stephens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $110k implies a 1367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.07%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,066
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -41.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $78,027
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.00×
• Total profit: $215,590
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30557

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $360	-5% $322	+0% $284	+5% $246	+10% $208
Rent	-10% $179	-5% $232	+0% $284	+5% $337	+10% $389
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $312	base $284	+0.5pp $256	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 226 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 222 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 221 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 220 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 217 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 216 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 215 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 214 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 213 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    price $110,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Investors/DIY, 2BR 2BA Barndo that has been completed on the outside. Septic and water has been installed. Rough-in plumbing has been done. Lake community with access to Pavillion, Dock and Boat Ramp! This one is a blank canvas for your vision!

19. 2025-10-29
    historical
20. 2025-10-02
    price $115,000
21. 2025-08-25
    listed $115,000 New 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Investors/DIY, 2BR 2BA Barndo that has been completed on the outside. Septic and water has been installed. Rough-in plumbing has been done. Lake community with access to Pavillion, Dock and Boat Ramp! This one is a blank canvas for your vision!

22. 2025-08-25
    listed $125,000 New

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    Investors/DIY, 2BR 2BA Barndo that has been completed on the outside. Septic and water has been installed. Rough-in plumbing has been done. Lake community with access to Pavillion, Dock and Boat Ramp! This one is a blank canvas for your vision!

23. 2023-06-30
    soldstatus $7,500 Sold
24. 2023-06-05
    status Under Contract
25. 2022-08-30
    status Price Change
26. 2022-08-30
    price $8,000
27. 2022-08-20
    historical
28. 2021-08-20
    listed $10,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,766
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$424
• After-tax cash flow: $2,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stephens County
• NCES district ID: 1304560
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,416
• Composite: 28.42/100
• National rank: #6759
• State rank: #74 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gumlog

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #11633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,905

Population outlook (Stephens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,797 people
• By 2030: 22,785 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 20,653 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 18,745 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 14,780 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 11,079 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 8% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stephens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.4% · R 81.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+58.7 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+53.7 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.48%
• Current HPI: 350.6536
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+947.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $110,000 GAMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $115,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $125,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $115,000 GAMLS
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) $7,500 GAMLS
• 2023-06-05 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-08-30 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2022-08-30 Price Changed $8,000 GAMLS
• 2022-08-20 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2021-08-20 Listed $10,500 GAMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $20 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.